Tesla's Q3 delivery volume is expected to hit a new high for the year, analysts warn of subsequent demand pressure
Tesla is expected to announce its third-quarter delivery data this Thursday, with the market anticipating that the delivery volume will reach a new high for the year, primarily driven by a rush of American consumers before the electric vehicle tax credit expires. However, analysts warn that subsequent demand may come under pressure, especially in the weak European market. Although the third-quarter delivery volume is expected to be 441,500 vehicles, it is still lower than the 462,900 vehicles delivered in the same period last year. Analysts point out that the expiration of the tax credit may lead to a demand gap in the fourth quarter, and Tesla has raised car leasing prices in the United States
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) will announce its latest quarterly delivery data this Thursday. Thanks to a surge in purchases by American consumers ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit earlier this week, the market expects the upcoming delivery figures to be the best of the year. However, analysts generally believe that this momentum is unlikely to be sustained, and the weakness in the European market remains a concern.
The delivery data for this quarter will serve as an important indicator of how much the U.S. subsidy policy drives sales. In the Chinese market, Tesla's launch of the six-seat Model Y L in September is expected to support sales, while the European market continues to decline due to aging models, insufficient competitiveness, and the impact of CEO Elon Musk's political stance on consumer sentiment. Analysts predict that Tesla's global delivery volume for the third quarter will be lower than the same period last year, and may further decline in the fourth quarter.
Analysts point out that the expiration of the U.S. tax credit has more prompted consumers to purchase vehicles earlier rather than attracting new buyers. With the disappearance of subsidies, Tesla has already raised car leasing prices in the U.S. this week. Musk warned as early as July that the company would face "several tough quarters," and only in the second half of next year, with accelerated growth in autonomous driving software and service revenue, is there hope for relief.
Wall Street expects Tesla's third-quarter delivery volume to be around 441,500 vehicles, with total deliveries for the year 2025 estimated to be about 1.6 million, a year-on-year decline of about 10%. Although the quarterly performance up to September will be the strongest of the year, it is still about 6% lower than the 462,900 vehicles delivered in the same period last year.
Before the expiration of the tax incentives, U.S. automakers generally increased their marketing efforts. Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, stated that the tax credit did indeed boost demand this quarter, but its expiration may lead to a demand gap in the fourth quarter in the U.S., while price reductions and promotional activities in the Chinese market may continue to compress profit margins. Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the launch of the Model Y L in the Chinese market is expected to alleviate the impact in the fourth quarter, but this model will not enter the U.S. market until the end of next year at the earliest.
In addition, the market is also concerned about whether Tesla can launch a lower-priced version of the Model Y before the end of the year to expand its potential buyer base. Pressure in Europe remains. Data shows that in August this year, Tesla's sales in Europe and the UK fell by 22.5% year-on-year, with market share dropping to 1.5%, mainly affected by the popularity of plug-in hybrid models and the rise of Chinese brands.
As of the time of writing, Tesla's stock price has risen nearly 2.8%, trading at $457.14
