Tesla's September sales in Europe show a stark contrast: recovery in countries like France and Denmark, while Sweden and the Netherlands remain sluggish

According to Zhitong Finance APP, thanks to the strong demand for the Model Y, Tesla (TSLA.US) has seen sales growth in most European countries, with France and Denmark recording sales increases for the first time this year. However, analysts point out that as competition intensifies and the product lineup shows no signs of renewal, the automaker may face the risk of losing market share.

Data shows that in September, Tesla's sales in the Danish market increased by 20.5% year-on-year, with the Model Y becoming the best-selling electric vehicle in the country; sales in Norway grew by 14.7%, driven by demand for the Model Y and Model 3; in Spain, registrations increased by 3.4%, thanks to a 60% surge in Model Y registrations.

After experiencing a sales slump for more than half a year, Tesla's registrations in France finally rebounded by 2.74%, but in the Swedish and Dutch markets, new car registrations, as a sales indicator, have declined for nine consecutive months. Specifically, Tesla's registrations in Sweden fell by 64% to 1,726 vehicles, although this is a significant rebound from 210 in August; in the Netherlands, sales dropped by 48% in September.

While the sales growth in some European markets is a positive signal for Tesla, its recent challenges in expanding its market in continental Europe are intensifying: on one hand, Tesla's existing model lineup has shown signs of aging; on the other hand, the competitive pressure from affordable electric vehicles from China continues to escalate. In August this year, Chinese leading automaker BYD (01211) surpassed Tesla in sales in EU member countries for the second time.

Andy Leyland, co-founder of supply chain consultancy SC Insights, pointed out that as Chinese automakers accelerate their sales network layout in core European markets such as Germany, the UK, and France, the competitive pressure on Tesla will further increase. Leyland stated, "Whether Tesla can maintain its footing in such competition will be key to its future development."

Matthias Schmidt of Schmidt Automotive Research noted that the slight increase in sales "more reflects a bottoming out of the downward trend rather than any tangible signs of an anticipated recovery on the horizon."

He added that a more affordable version of the Model Y may help in 2026, but "we expect that Tesla's situation will remain difficult in a more competitive market environment."

Tesla's competitive predicament is further exacerbated by some consumers' resistance to its CEO, Elon Musk. Musk funded Trump's presidential campaign last year and publicly supported far-right parties in Europe.

Tesla argues that the updated Model Y, which began deliveries in multiple European markets in June, will lead the recovery of sales in Europe.

Andy Palmer, chairman of the UK electric vehicle advocacy group Electric Vehicles UK, stated, "Tesla may still be the 'big fish' in the industry, but the 'pond' is now crowded with strong competitors. Unless the existing model lineup is updated, its market share will continue to decline." From the overall data, from January to August this year, Tesla's sales in the EU region decreased by 42.9% year-on-year, while sales across Europe decreased by 32.6% year-on-year. During the same period, the total sales of electric vehicles in the EU increased by 24.8%.

Tesla's global third-quarter delivery data will be announced on Thursday, with current market estimates for deliveries ranging between 445,000 and 470,000 units