Kalshi's sports betting trading volume surges, "shocking" the U.S. stock betting sector

Zhitong
2025.10.01 02:23
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The prediction platform Kalshi has set a new record in the sports betting sector, with a trading volume exceeding $275 million, leading to a significant decline in the U.S. stock market's gambling sector. Kalshi's trading volume primarily comes from college and professional football events and operates legally in states where sports betting has not yet been approved. Despite the market's strong reaction, analyst David Bain believes that investors' concerns are exaggerated, and Kalshi's trading volume may not be as large as reported

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the prediction platform Kalshi has stirred waves in the sports betting field. The company set a new trading record of over $260 million last Saturday, followed by another record-breaking trading volume of over $275 million on Sunday. Previously, the trading record on the Kalshi platform was $245 million set on the 2024 election day. The U.S. stock market's gambling sector plummeted in response.

At this time of year, Kalshi serves as a football-themed trading platform, with 98% of its trading volume coming from college and professional football events, despite the ongoing Ryder Cup, Major League Baseball games, and various political events.

Notably, on the Kalshi platform, the Sunday night overtime game between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys became the highest trading volume game in history, with a total trading amount of $57.2 million.

Rough estimates suggest that Kalshi has captured 5% to 10% of the sports betting market. Of course, one of the platform's significant advantages is that it operates legally in states like California and Texas, where sports betting has not yet been approved.

Kalshi's rapid momentum has sparked reactions. The U.S. stock market's gambling sector plummeted on Tuesday, with DraftKings (DKNG.US) down 12%, Flutter Entertainment (FLUT.US) down over 10%, Rush Street Interactive (RSI.US) down nearly 9%, Genius Sports (GENI.US) down nearly 8%, Sportradar Group AG (SRAD.US) down nearly 6%, and MGM (MGM.US) down over 5%. The Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ.US) fell nearly 4%.

However, David Bain, an analyst at Texas Capital Securities, believes that investor concerns about the sports betting industry are greatly exaggerated.

Bain stated that it is crucial to note that Kalshi's trading volume may not be as large as reported by the media, as the $540 million total trading amount may include both buy and sell sides. He also pointed out that Texas Capital Securities expects the trading volume of the online sports market regulated in the U.S. to exceed $17 billion in September, which would be considered a healthy figure.

Additionally, Bain anticipates that most sportsbooks may offer some reassuring statements to investors at the G2E gaming exhibition in Las Vegas early next week. Bain stated, "We believe the current stock price decline provides many buying opportunities for online gambling stocks." Amidst the various clamor regarding the threats of prediction markets and online sports betting, Bain and his team believe that Genius Sports is clearly a winner, as it benefits from any form of market expansion

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