Overnight U.S. Stocks | The three major indices closed the third quarter perfectly, with precious metals being the biggest winners

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Tuesday, the three major indices closed higher. Today marks the last trading day of September and the last trading day of the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones have risen for the fifth consecutive month. The Dow Jones recorded its largest percentage increase in September since 2019; the S&P 500 Index achieved its largest September percentage increase since 2010 and its largest third-quarter percentage increase since 2020. The Nasdaq has risen for the sixth consecutive month and recorded its largest third-quarter percentage increase since 2010.

[U.S. Stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones rose 81.82 points, an increase of 0.18%, closing at 46,397.89 points; the Nasdaq rose 68.86 points, an increase of 0.3%, closing at 22,660 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 27.25 points, an increase of 0.41%, closing at 6,688.46 points. NVIDIA (NVDA.US) rose 2.6%, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) rose 2.2%, Coreweave (CRWV.US) rose 11.7%, UiPath (PATH.US) rose 6.5%, Eli Lilly (LLY.US) rose 5.02%, with U.S. President Trump stating that Eli Lilly performed exceptionally well. Alphabet (GOOG.US), Google's parent company, accumulated a 38% increase in the third quarter, marking its best single-quarter performance since 2005.

[European Stocks] The German DAX 30 Index rose 66.27 points, an increase of 0.28%, closing at 23,841.44 points; the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 42.56 points, an increase of 0.46%, closing at 9,342.40 points; the French CAC 40 Index rose 15.07 points, an increase of 0.19%, closing at 7,895.94 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 16.50 points, an increase of 0.30%, closing at 5,523.35 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 Index rose 109.48 points, an increase of 0.71%, closing at 15,457.58 points; the Italian FTSE MIB Index rose 127.60 points, an increase of 0.30%, closing at 42,682.00 points.

[Crude Oil] The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract for November delivery fell by $1.08, a decrease of 1.7%, closing at $62.37 per barrel. The November Brent crude oil contract settlement price fell by $0.95, a decrease of 1.4%, closing at $67.02 per barrel.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose 0.3%, trading at $114,729.8; Ethereum fell 0.44%, trading at $4,200.78.

[Precious Metals] In the third quarter, precious metals emerged as the biggest winners, with both gold and silver recording their largest price increases on record. Gold futures closed at a historic high of $3,840.8, rising $546.6 this quarter, an increase of about 17%. Silver futures performed even better, closing at $46.253, rising 29% this quarter.

[Macroeconomic News]

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Falls to 5-Month Low. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September fell to a 5-month low due to concerns that the labor market and overall economy are cooling. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for September decreased by 3.6 points to 94.2, with the median economist expectation at 96 The current index has dropped by 7 points, reaching its lowest level in a year, while the indicator measuring expectations for the next six months has also declined. Over the past few months, the consumer confidence index has been fluctuating, as consumers face various contradictions such as a slowdown in hiring, persistently high inflation, and record stock prices. Despite the low consumer confidence compared to earlier this year, it has proven that consumer spending is resilient and continues to drive the economy forward. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut of the year to prevent what Fed Chairman Powell described as a deterioration of the labor market characterized by "low hiring and low layoffs."

U.S. job vacancies have barely increased, indicating stable labor demand. Job vacancies in the U.S. saw little growth in August, indicating relatively stable labor demand. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that job vacancies increased from a revised 7.21 million in July to 7.23 million. Since peaking in early 2022, job vacancies have gradually declined and have remained within a relatively narrow range over the past year. Economists are closely monitoring for signs of further weakness, as employers have reduced hiring and the time it takes for the unemployed to find new jobs has lengthened. Fed Chairman Powell noted the weakness in the labor market when he cut rates earlier this month. Although other officials share similar concerns, many are cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation remaining well above the central bank's target. Typically, Fed policymakers rely on key government data to guide their decisions, including at the October meeting, but with the risk of a government shutdown looming, the release of Friday's non-farm payroll report and other key data may be delayed, leaving uncertainty about how much information they will have at that time.

Trump: Many federal employees may be laid off if the government shuts down. President Trump stated on Tuesday that if the U.S. government shuts down due to a stalemate between congressional Democrats and Republicans, many federal workers may be laid off. On Tuesday, the U.S. government faced a shutdown as a Democratic bill to prevent the government from closing failed to pass in the Senate. The White House indicated that a government shutdown was imminent, with less than six hours remaining.

Bank for International Settlements: Global forex trading volume surged to $9.6 trillion in April. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), global forex market trading volume soared to a record high due to severe exchange rate fluctuations triggered by U.S. trade tariffs. Preliminary survey results indicated that the average daily trading volume in April for over-the-counter (OTC) transactions reached $9.6 trillion, a 28% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, the average daily trading volume of OTC interest rate derivatives surged by 59%, reaching $7.9 trillion. This one-month market snapshot coincided with the most turbulent forex trading period of the year. The "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by Trump on April 2 caused global asset turmoil, weakening the dollar due to its safe-haven status being undermined. A JPMorgan currency volatility index reached its highest level in two years that month.

ECB President Lagarde says inflation risks are manageable. ECB President Lagarde stated that despite global trade reshaping, the inflation rate in the Eurozone is unlikely to be significantly above or below the ECB's target. Lagarde noted that the EU did not retaliate against the U.S. for raising tariffs, and the weakening of the dollar has alleviated concerns about the impact of trade tensions on inflation Lagarde stated, "Since trade shocks have not caused new inflationary pressures, we will not face the traditional policy trade-off where central banks confront stagnation and rising inflation." Lagarde mentioned that the impact of high tariffs on economic growth seems to be milder than previously feared. In summary, the potential path of inflation is close to the central bank's target. "In terms of the future models we can establish, the risks of inflation appear to be controllable in both directions."

【Stock News】

OpenAI launches social media app to challenge TikTok, YouTube, and Meta (META.US). According to reports, OpenAI is launching a brand new social media application to challenge TikTok, Google YouTube, and Meta. Leveraging its AI video generator, users of the new app can create high-definition short videos with audio through text prompts. Users can upload their own clips and embed them into the virtual world generated by Sora, simply by describing the desired creativity, style, and scene. They can also interact with other users, watch, and comment on others' content. The new version Sora 2 will adopt a swipe navigation method similar to TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts, showcasing OpenAI's ambitions in the Silicon Valley AI video space. OpenAI plans to launch the app in the U.S. and Canada through the Apple App Store on an invitation-only basis.

U.S. SEC plans to promote blockchain stock trading, traditional financial institutions strongly oppose. According to The Information, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is developing a plan to allow stocks to be traded on blockchain technology similar to cryptocurrencies. This initiative is a key focus of the Trump administration's regulatory agenda supporting cryptocurrencies, which may eventually allow investors to purchase tokens representing shares of companies like Tesla and NVIDIA on cryptocurrency exchanges. Currently, SEC staff are discussing the proposal with industry representatives. Companies within Coinbase (COIN.US) and Robinhood (HOOD.US) are actively pushing regulators for swift approval to conduct stock trading on blockchain platforms. However, the plan has faced strong opposition from traditional financial institutions that have established profitable models within the existing market structure.

U.S. Energy Secretary: U.S. government will take a stake in Lithium Americas (LAC.US) to advance Nevada project. U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm stated on Tuesday that the U.S. government has agreed to acquire a stake in Lithium Americas to support the Canadian company's development of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada. This move is part of the Trump administration's latest efforts to accelerate the establishment of a domestic supply chain to counter China's dominance in critical metals for defense, automotive manufacturing, and consumer electronics. In July, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $400 million equity investment in MP Materials to fund the construction of a large rare earth magnet factory. The Thacker Pass project by Lithium Americas in Nevada is expected to become a major source of lithium for the U.S. domestic industry Previously, it was reported that the government was considering taking a stake, and the company confirmed this news this week. American Lithium's stock listed in the U.S. rose nearly 20% in after-hours trading, and has increased by 92% this year.

The Federal Reserve agrees to relax Morgan Stanley's capital requirements. The Federal Reserve stated on Tuesday that Morgan Stanley's (MS.US) stress capital buffer requirement has been reduced from the initial 5.1% to 4.3%. This adjustment stems from the Wall Street institution's request in August for the Federal Reserve to reconsider its annual stress test assessment results. The multi-stage test aims to evaluate the resilience of large U.S. banks in a hypothetical economic recession. The Federal Reserve stated in a release: "Based on the analysis of the information submitted by Morgan Stanley, the Board determined that the estimated losses on the bank's fair value option loan portfolio were overly conservative." A total of 22 banks, including Morgan Stanley, successfully passed this year's Federal Reserve stress tests, demonstrating that these institutions can withstand losses exceeding $550 billion.

U.S. media: Pfizer to invest $70 billion in drug production in the U.S. According to foreign media, Pfizer (PFE.US) CEO is expected to announce a $70 billion investment in drug production in the U.S. The White House will announce the launch of the "TRUMPRX" drug purchasing website. TRUMPRX will allow people to purchase certain drugs directly with cash through the government website and enjoy government-negotiated discount prices. It is currently unclear how many types of drugs the website will offer, and whether it will be useful for most Americans covered by private insurance, Medicare, or Medicaid