iPhone 17 sales tracking, overall better than the 16 series, Air models perform weakly

In the third week of the launch of the iPhone 17 series, overall demand is stronger than that of the iPhone 16 series in the same period last year, but there is a clear differentiation within the product line. According to analysts at JP Morgan, except for the Air model, the delivery cycles of the other three models remain high, indicating that the strong sales of the base model, Pro, and Pro Max are sufficient to offset the weak performance of the Air model.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, JP Morgan pointed out in a report on September 28 that the average delivery cycle of the iPhone 17 series in the third week was only shortened by 2 days compared to the second week, far below the 5-day decrease of the iPhone 16 series in the same period last year. The delivery cycle of the base model iPhone 17 remained almost flat, while the iPhone 16 in the same period last year had a significant reduction of 7 days. Although the delivery cycle of the iPhone Air has shortened, the decrease is also significantly lower than that of the iPhone 16 Plus last year.

This sales pattern is reflected in major global markets. In the U.S. market, which accounts for 34% of iPhone shipments, the base model and Pro Max are still unable to achieve in-store pickup, indicating a tight supply-demand situation. In the Chinese market, which accounts for 19% of shipments, the iPhone Air has not yet been launched for sale due to regulatory issues related to eSim configuration.

Analysts believe that although the Air model has not met expectations, the strong performance of the base model and Pro series ensures that the overall sales momentum of the iPhone 17 surpasses that of its predecessor, providing strong support for Apple's fourth-quarter performance.

Strong Overall Demand, Delivery Cycles Longer than Last Year

According to data from JP Morgan, the global average delivery times for the iPhone 17, Air, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max in the third week were 25 days, 4 days, 22 days, and 31 days, respectively, showing limited changes from the second week's 26 days, 11 days, 24 days, and 31 days. In contrast, the delivery times for the iPhone 16 series in the same period last year were 10 days, 5 days, 23 days, and 29 days.

The data shows that the delivery cycle for the Pro Max model remains stable, the base model and Pro model have slightly eased, while the delivery cycle for the Air model has significantly shortened. This trend indicates that consumer demand for high-end models remains strong, but interest in the relatively ambiguous Air model is limited.

Compared to the same period last year, the delivery cycles of the other three models, excluding the Air model, are significantly longer than those of the iPhone 16 series, especially the 25-day delivery period for the base model iPhone 17, which far exceeds last year's 10 days, indicating stronger market demand.

Tight Supply in the U.S. Market, High Demand for High-End Models

JP Morgan stated that in the U.S., Apple's largest single market, the delivery cycles for the iPhone 17 and Air are 21 days and 4 days, respectively, remaining basically unchanged from the second week. The delivery cycles for the Pro and Pro Max models remain high at 21 days and 28 days, respectively.**

What better illustrates the supply and demand situation is the in-store pickup status. As of September 26, some Air and 17 Pro models are available for in-store pickup, while the base version and Pro Max models are completely unavailable for in-store pickup. This situation stands in stark contrast to the same period last year, indicating that consumer demand for new models, especially high-end models, exceeds expectations.

The performance of the U.S. market is of significant importance to Apple's overall performance. As a market that accounts for about one-third of iPhone shipments, U.S. consumer purchasing preferences often reflect global trends. The current supply tightness suggests a positive sales outlook for the fourth quarter.

China and Europe Markets Have Their Own Characteristics; Regulatory Factors Affect Product Layout

JP Morgan stated that in the Chinese market, the delivery cycles for iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max are 36 days, 22 days, and 36 days respectively, with little change from the second week. It is worth noting that the iPhone Air has not yet been launched in China due to regulatory issues related to its eSim-only configuration, and this restriction may continue to impact the global sales performance of this model.

Most new iPhone models in the Chinese market are unavailable for in-store pickup, reflecting strong local consumer demand for new products. Considering that China accounts for about 19% of iPhone shipments, the strong performance in the local market provides important support for Apple's global sales.

The situation in major European markets is relatively balanced. In Germany and the UK, the iPhone Air models can generally be picked up in-store within 1-3 days, while other models still require a longer waiting time. Germany and the UK account for 3% and 4% of iPhone shipments respectively. Although their shares are relatively small, their consumption patterns often reflect the overall market trends in Europe.