Apple Appears To Have Put The Worst Behind It In China, Says Analyst — Xiaomi Now Faces Fresh Pressure From 2026 iPhone SE And Flagship Launches
Apple Inc. is reportedly recovering in China after a period of declining sales, with analysts indicating that Xiaomi Corp. will face increased competition from Apple's upcoming 2026 iPhone models. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo noted that Apple's iPhone business has improved, while Xiaomi's recent 17 Series launch has underperformed, leading to a potential 20% shipment cut. Kuo warns that Xiaomi may need to adjust pricing strategies to boost sales, especially with Apple's strong demand for its iPhone 17 lineup. Apple's market share stands at 25.71%, compared to Xiaomi's 10.82%.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) may finally be regaining ground in China after months of slowing sales, and analysts warn that Xiaomi Corp. (OTC: XIACY) (OTC: XIACF) will soon face renewed competition from Apple's 2026 iPhone lineup.
Apple stock has gained 4.76% so far in 2025 and is up 9.64% over the past 12 months, according to Benzinga Pro.
Analyst Flags Shift In China's Smartphone Market
On Monday, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple's iPhone business in China has "put the worst behind it."
Taking to X, formerly Twitter, he noted that Apple's rebound poses a direct challenge to Xiaomi, which last week launched its 17 Series in Beijing.
Kuo added that Xiaomi's standard 17 model has underperformed expectations, leading to an estimated 20% shipment cut for the series.
"If there is no further step-up in pricing or marketing going forward, total shipments for the 17 series could fall below the 15 series' ~8 million units," he wrote on X.
Apple's 2026 Models Loom Over Xiaomi
According to Kuo, Xiaomi's competitive pressure is set to intensify in 2026 when Apple is expected to roll out two new products: a revamped iPhone SE in the first half of the year and a new high-end iPhone series in the second half.
The analyst suggested that Apple's resurgence could squeeze Xiaomi's premium smartphone ambitions just as it attempts to claw market share back from both Apple and Huawei Technologies.
Xiaomi's Struggle To Balance Lineup
Kuo said the demand shortfall stems largely from weak uptake of the standard Xiaomi 17 model, which was expected to account for 50% to 55% of shipments but is instead tracking closer to 15% to 20%.
While Pro and Pro Max models have seen incremental orders, they have not been enough to offset the decline.
Xiaomi may need to cut prices during China's National Day Golden Week to drive shipments higher, Kuo said, warning that the company's long-term premium strategy will hinge on the success of its 18 Series and on-device AI roadmap.
Apple's Recovery In China
Meanwhile, Apple's iPhone 17 lineup, launched Sept. 19 in China and India, is already generating strong demand, particularly for the Pro Max model priced at 9,999 yuan ($1,406).
Analysts forecast iPhone shipments in China will rise 11% year-over-year in the second half of 2025, helping Apple post 5% annual growth despite earlier declines.
Globally, Apple commands 25.71% smartphone market share, ahead of Samsung Electronics Co. (OTC: SSNLF) at 20.96% and Xiaomi at 10.82%, according to Statcounter.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings show that AAPL continues to trend higher across short, medium and long-term horizons, with more detailed performance insights available here.
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