Understanding the Market | Alibaba-W rose over 4% in the afternoon as Morgan Stanley raised its capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba, further driving growth in cloud business
Alibaba-W's stock price rose more than 4% in the afternoon, reaching HKD 173.4, with a transaction volume of HKD 16.784 billion. Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for Alibaba's capital expenditures in the coming years, expecting it to increase from RMB 100 billion to RMB 108 billion to RMB 130 billion to RMB 135 billion. It is anticipated that the cloud business will accelerate growth, with growth forecasts for the cloud business in the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 raised to 32% and 40%, respectively
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Alibaba-W (09988) rose over 4% in the afternoon, with a current increase of 4.14%, priced at HKD 173.4, and a transaction volume of HKD 16.784 billion.
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that Alibaba is expected to benefit from accelerated growth in its cloud business, expanded capital expenditures, and the advancement of its internationalization strategy. The bank indicated that after the Cloud Summit, it has become increasingly optimistic about Alibaba Cloud's prospects. On the supply side, the bank raised its annual capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba from the original RMB 100 billion to RMB 108 billion for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, to RMB 130 billion to RMB 135 billion, while expecting to add 10 to 15 GW of data center capacity by 2032, with capital expenditures in the next three years tending towards a front-loaded distribution.
The bank stated that on the demand side, Alibaba's management emphasized robust demand, with tokens doubling every 2 to 3 months. During the conference, the company also announced several new developments, including the release of the flagship model Qwen3-Max and the upgrade of the Bailian Agent intelligent platform; a strategic cooperation with NVIDIA in the field of physical AI; and accelerated international expansion, establishing data centers for the first time in Brazil, France, the Netherlands, and other locations. The bank expects that these measures, along with increased capital expenditures, will further drive cloud business growth, thus raising the growth forecast for cloud business in the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 from the original 30% growth each year to 32% and 40%, respectively
