Next week's heavy schedule: Another Chinese Golden Week, the U.S. government "threatens a shutdown," and non-farm payroll data is "uncertain."

Key focus for next week: The U.S. federal government funds will run out on September 30. If Congress does not take action on September 29, the government may shut down on October 1. U.S. non-farm payroll and ADP employment data, as well as the September PMI for China and the U.S., will be released. The A-shares market will be closed for 8 days during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan plans to hold a presidential election on October 4, with voting results expected to be announced.

In addition, data such as U.S. initial claims, September unemployment rate, Eurozone CPI, and Japan PMI will also be released. Yuzhu Technology is expected to submit an IPO application between October and December, and South Korea will implement a temporary visa waiver policy for Chinese team tourists starting September 29.

Overview of major financial events from September 29 to October 5, all in Beijing time:

Economic Indicators

• September Non-Farm Employment Change (10,000)

After the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September, the U.S. September non-farm employment report, to be released on Friday, October 3, is crucial for assessing the future interest rate path. However, it is worth noting that if the U.S. government shuts down, the release of non-farm and other economic data may be delayed.

The significance of this data lies in verifying whether the "substantial risk of employment downturn" that Fed Chairman Powell is concerned about persists. Last month, the U.S. non-farm payroll added only 22,000 jobs, far below expectations.

Powell previously pointed out that the job market is "no longer as solid," and the number of new jobs is even below the level needed to maintain a stable unemployment rate. Therefore, if the September data is weak again, especially if new job additions remain sluggish and the unemployment rate rises further, it will strongly support the Fed's forecast and boost market expectations for further rate cuts this year; conversely, if the data rebounds significantly, it may trigger a re-evaluation of the policy path by the market. Although Powell stated that there is not much broad support for a 50 basis point rate cut, an exceptionally weak report could still bring this option back into discussion.

• September ISM Manufacturing Index, ADP Employment Data

On October 1, the U.S. will release the September ISM Manufacturing PMI. Previously, the August ISM Manufacturing Index recorded 48.7, remaining in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month. The market will closely monitor whether the September data can confirm the trend of improvement in new orders observed in August. If the new orders index can maintain expansion for two consecutive months, it may enhance market expectations for a rebound in manufacturing.

In addition, whether the employment situation in manufacturing can improve is also key to assessing the overall health of the economy. Although the final PMI value for August released by S&P Global showed an acceleration in manufacturing expansion, the discrepancy with the ISM data makes the September ISM report more indicative. Against the backdrop of unclear Fed policy paths and the shadow of a global economic slowdown, this report will be an important basis for determining whether U.S. manufacturing can emerge from difficulties and provide support for the economy in the fourth quarterOn October 1st, the US September ADP employment data will also be released. In August, the ADP employment number in the US increased by 54,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 68,000.

• September official manufacturing PMI

On September 30th, China will release the September official manufacturing PMI. After the August data recorded 49.4, the market is highly concerned whether this month's index can return to the expansion zone. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that the focus will be on whether the new orders index can keep pace with the production index, and whether the momentum of price recovery under the "anti-involution" policy is sustainable. This data is a key indicator for assessing the strength of domestic demand recovery and economic momentum at the end of the third quarter.

On the same day, the September RatingDog manufacturing PMI data will also be released.

Financial Events

• On September 30th, US government federal funds will run out, Senate reconvenes: reviewing temporary spending bill

Republican members of the US House of Representatives recently unveiled a temporary spending bill aimed at preventing the US federal government from shutting down on October 1st, but the bill does not include the healthcare policies demanded by Democrats, leading to a standoff between the two parties.

According to Wall Street Insight, Goldman Sachs stated that theoretically, the last chance to avoid a shutdown will occur after the Senate reconvenes on September 29th. If Democrats change their stance, the delay bill already approved by the House could pass. However, this scenario is widely considered unlikely.

• US government may "shutdown" on October 1st

The current fiscal year funding for the US federal government will officially run out on September 30th, and without congressional action, a government shutdown will begin on October 1st.

Wall Street Insight reported that due to the two parties' unwillingness to compromise on healthcare spending, the market believes the likelihood of a US government shutdown has exceeded 75%. Goldman Sachs stated that the duration of the shutdown may be similar to the three-week duration in 2013. It is expected that for each week the government is shut down, GDP growth for that quarter will decrease by 15 basis points.

If the deadlock continues, the government shutdown will delay the release of key economic data such as October non-farm payrolls and CPI, which may not only drag down quarterly GDP growth but also significantly increase market uncertainty as the Federal Reserve makes policy decisions in October without sufficient data reference.

• October 1st-8th, A-shares will be closed for 8 days for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day celebrations

This year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are combined, forming a super golden week lasting 8 days, with the specific holiday period from October 1st (Wednesday) to October 8th (Wednesday). It is important to note that September 28th (Sunday) and October 11th (Saturday) will be adjusted to normal working daysAs a result, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets will be closed from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday), and will resume normal trading on October 9 (Thursday).

Due to the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, the domestic tourism market has already entered a peak booking period in advance, and a wave of travel enthusiasm is expected. According to the "2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Holiday Travel Trend Indicator" released by Fliggy, the pace of holiday travel bookings is about 3.5 days earlier than in previous years, with bookings for holiday travel products including air tickets, hotels, tickets, car rentals, and tour packages significantly surpassing last year. A report from Tongcheng Travel also predicts that the 8-day holiday will feature "increased frequency of short trips and improved quality of long-distance travel," indicating a vibrant Golden Week for tourism is about to arrive.

• Yushu Technology expects to submit IPO application from October to December

Yushu Technology, a leading company in the domestic robotics field, announced that it expects to submit its IPO application documents to the stock exchange between October and December 2025.

• Japan's Liberal Democratic Party plans to hold presidential election on October 4

Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba has announced his decision to resign. Japanese media reports that the Liberal Democratic Party plans to hold a presidential election on October 4. Huatai Securities expects that the new Prime Minister of Japan may take office in October. During this transition period, factional struggles within the party are expected to intensify, leading to a higher level of political uncertainty in Japan. Considering that Sanae Takaichi has a higher probability of winning and emphasizes fiscal expansion, this may boost U.S. stocks and the yen, but Japanese government bond yields may face further upward pressure.

Currently, five main competitors have emerged, including former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, current Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Yoshikazu Koizumi, as well as Sanae Takaichi and Takashi Kobayashi, who previously served as Minister for Economic Security. It is noteworthy that all five participated in last September's presidential election and ultimately lost to Shigeru Ishiba, making this election a "revival battle for last year's losers," as dubbed by the opposition parties.

• South Korea to implement temporary visa exemption policy for Chinese group tourists starting September 29

According to CCTV News, the South Korean government will implement a temporary visa exemption policy for Chinese group tourists starting September 29, which will initially last until June next year