Everbright Securities: A-shares are expected to continue rising after the holiday, while Hong Kong stocks should focus on a "dumbbell" strategy that favors technology growth and high dividend yields

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Everbright Securities recently published a research report forecasting the direction of the AH stock market. The institution stated that the A-shares are expected to continue rising after the holiday, and in terms of allocation direction, it is recommended to focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) main line. For the Hong Kong stock market, it suggests paying attention to a "dumbbell" allocation strategy as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield.

The main points from Everbright Securities are as follows:

September A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets continue to rise

In September, the major indices of A-shares saw more gains than losses, with significant differentiation among industries. Influenced by improved market sentiment and industrial trend catalysts, most major A-share indices rose in September (as of the 25th), with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index had the largest decline. The performance of various industries in September showed notable differentiation. Sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and media performed well due to industrial event catalysts and elevated market sentiment.

September Hong Kong stock market fluctuates upward. In September, influenced by overseas interest rate cuts and a recovery in domestic risk appetite, the overall trend of the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated upward. As of September 25, 2025, the increases for the Hang Seng Technology Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong 35 Index were 12.4%, 6.2%, 5.6%, 5.5%, and 0.7%, respectively.

A-share perspective: The market is expected to continue rising after the holiday. Historically, after the National Day holiday, as market trading heats up, the market usually performs well. For this round of market conditions, the logic supporting the rise of the stock market has not changed, and the current market valuation is relatively reasonable, without significant overextension. It is expected that the market will likely return to an upward range after the holiday. In terms of allocation direction, it is recommended to focus on the TMT main line. Under a liquidity-driven market, TMT is more likely to become the main line in the mid-term, and this round may be no exception. The TMT sector currently has many catalysts, such as ongoing industrial trend progress and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, which also provides upward momentum. From the recent sector rotation situation, TMT has already gained an advantage, and the future market may continue this trend.

Hong Kong stock perspective: Focus on "dumbbell" allocation as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle; the Hong Kong stock market may continue to fluctuate upward. The overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively strong, while assets in internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are relatively scarce. Additionally, although the Hong Kong stock market has risen for several consecutive months, the overall valuation remains low, and the long-term cost-effectiveness of allocation is still high. With the continuous development of the AI industry trend and the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, the Hong Kong stock market may continue to fluctuate upward in the future.

Attention can be paid to a "dumbbell" strategy focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield. 1) Focus on concepts related to self-control, chips, and high-end manufacturing that are expected to continue to receive domestic support policies under the backdrop of the US-China great game. 2) Pay attention to certain internet technology companies with independent prosperity. 3) Continue to focus on high dividend low volatility strategies, including industries such as telecommunications, public utilities, and banking. The high dividend strategy can still serve as a stable income base.

Risk warning: Policy advancement may fall short of expectations; significant deterioration in US-China relations; occurrence of unexpected risk events