The initial jobless claims in the United States strongly counter concerns about the labor market, with the number dropping to a new low since July

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, last week the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was far below market expectations, which somewhat alleviated concerns from the Federal Reserve and other institutions about the labor market being in distress.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending September 20, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, a decrease of 14,000 compared to the upwardly revised figure from the previous week, and significantly lower than the economists' forecast of 235,000. The number of continuing jobless claims for the previous week remained basically flat, with a slight decrease of 2,000 to 1.926 million.

This data release came just a week before the Federal Reserve's voting decision to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since 2025. In the meeting statement released on September 17, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that part of the consideration for the rate cut was due to "the rising downside risks to employment." In fact, non-farm employment growth has nearly stagnated, and the number of job vacancies has dropped to a multi-year low.

However, despite a brief increase in initial jobless claims earlier this month, overall data shows that even with a significant reduction in hiring efforts, employers are still reluctant to lay off workers easily.

It is worth noting that the initial jobless claims data can be somewhat volatile; for example, Texas has seen significant fluctuations in its data in recent weeks. According to unadjusted data, the state saw a decrease of nearly 7,000 in initial jobless claims last week.

Despite growing concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy in the second half of this year, recent economic data has shown overall robust performance, and other reports released on Thursday further confirmed the underlying resilience of the economy.

The U.S. Department of Commerce released the third estimate of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. As the most comprehensive measure of economic growth, the second-quarter GDP growth rate in the U.S. reached 3.8%. The report indicated that the GDP data was revised upward by 0.5 percentage points compared to previous estimates, a revision that exceeded the norm.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis stated that this upward revision was primarily due to adjustments in consumer spending data. In the first quarter of this year, U.S. GDP had declined by 0.6%, slightly lower than the previous value. Personal consumption expenditures, which account for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy's $30 trillion total, grew by 2.5%, significantly higher than the second estimate of 1.6% and better than the first quarter's 0.6%.

Another positive signal is that in August, spending on durable goods such as airplanes, appliances, and computers increased by 2.9%, far exceeding the expected decline of 0.4% and showing significant improvement compared to the 2.7% drop in July. Even excluding transportation categories, new orders for so-called durable goods still grew by 0.4%; if defense orders are excluded, the increase reached 1.9%.

Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring economic data to assess the next policy direction. Recent reports mostly depict an optimistic picture: even the weakest housing market has recently shown signs of recovery, with new home sales surging by 20.5% in August, marking the largest increase since January 2022.

Despite the robust data, the market still expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates twice in the meetings in October and December Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his speech on Tuesday that "despite significant adjustments in trade and immigration policies, as well as numerous changes in fiscal, regulatory, and geopolitical areas, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate strong resilience."

However, Powell also left room for further easing policies, stating that the current policies still pose a "moderate constraint" on economic growth