Cathay Securities and Haitong Securities: There is a significant oversupply expectation for crude oil supply and demand this year, and in the medium to long term, the central price of crude oil is expected to decline

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that OPEC+ increased production at the meeting on September 7 and announced an adjustment to the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting from October 2025, reducing the daily output adjustment by 137,000 barrels. There is a significant expectation of oversupply in crude oil this year. Attention should be paid to the potential support for oil prices due to the increased likelihood of risk events as the hurricane season approaches and during high operational periods. In the medium to long term, crude oil is expected to trend towards looseness, with a downward shift in the oil price center. Expectations for two subsequent interest rate cuts have increased, and domestic easing policies are also on the way.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

OPEC+ increased production at the meeting on September 7

And announced an adjustment to the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting from October 2025, reducing the daily output adjustment by 137,000 barrels. There is a significant expectation of oversupply in crude oil this year. OPEC+ further releases expectations for seizing market share in crude oil. Recently, the EU has imposed 18 sanctions on Russia, and the U.S. has levied secondary tariffs on India's crude oil purchases, with European sanctions on Russia more reflected in freight costs, thereby affecting Russian crude oil export prices. In the short term, Russian crude oil exports have not been affected. The weakness in oil prices after the peak season also exerts pressure on the number of shale oil drilling rigs, prompting U.S. oil and gas giants to initiate large-scale layoffs, leading to the first decline in global oil and gas capital expenditure in four years. After improvements in drilling costs and efficiency, there is an underlying vulnerability in shale oil supply. Looking ahead, this year, non-OPEC countries such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana all have incremental supply, with Brazil being the largest variable in non-OPEC crude oil supply increases. In terms of demand, August to November is the global refinery maintenance phase, and seasonal weakness in crude oil is expected after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the potential support for oil prices due to the increased likelihood of risk events as the hurricane season approaches and during high operational periods. In the medium to long term, crude oil is expected to trend towards looseness, with a downward shift in the oil price center.

The introduction of a new round of key industry stability growth plans promotes further optimization of the industry structure

The bank expects that with the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, expectations for two subsequent interest rate cuts have increased, and domestic easing policies are also on the way. The bank recommends that industry concentration further increases, benefiting leading companies such as the polyester filament leader Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co., Ltd. Additionally, under the backdrop of increasing profit pressure, overseas refining and ethylene capacity reduction will benefit domestic low-cost ethylene leaders, recommending Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical. Furthermore, it continues to recommend refining leaders such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, benefiting from the "anti-involution" background. In the medium to long term, it recommends undervalued high-dividend upstream stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum, as well as recommending Kunlun Energy, which has stable cash flow