Fangzheng Securities: Maintains "Strong Buy" rating on Alibaba-W, focusing on the performance of major promotions and the possibility of exceeding expectations

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Founder Securities released a research report stating that Alibaba-W (09988) is increasing its investment in instant retail and achieving good synergy with Taobao e-commerce, while its cloud business is rapidly growing, opening up a second growth curve. The firm expects the company's revenue for the fiscal years 2026/2027/2028 to be RMB 1,058.6 billion / 1,169.0 billion / 1,269.9 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders to be RMB 111.6 billion / 145.1 billion / 173.7 billion, maintaining a "strong buy" rating. Alibaba's layout in instant retail with the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase marks a transformation from traditional e-commerce to a comprehensive consumption platform, breaking the boundaries between long-distance e-commerce and near-distance instant retail. With Double Eleven approaching, attention is focused on the performance of Taotian during the major promotion and the possibility of exceeding expectations.

Changes from Several Dimensions:

Organizational Structure: Alibaba has restructured its group business from the original 1+6+N into four major segments, completing the strategic integration of Taotian Group, Ele.me, and Fliggy, and establishing Alibaba China E-commerce Group, creating a large consumption platform that integrates "shopping and life services" and a technology platform centered on "AI + Cloud," with Jiang Fan serving as the head of Alibaba's China and international e-commerce.

User Rights: The launch of the Taobao VIP membership system has unified membership rights. The Taobao VIP membership rights connect resources from Ele.me, Fliggy, Cainiao, Hema, Didi, Taopiaopiao, Youku, and other Alibaba-related resources, covering various life scenarios such as dining, entertainment, and transportation, achieving growth in the scale of the 88VIP premium customer group and driving platform transaction growth. As of June 25, the number of 88VIP members has continued to grow at a double-digit rate year-on-year, reaching over 53 million.

Traffic Entry: Flash Purchase integrates high-frequency scenarios such as takeout, travel, and local life, deeply binding with e-commerce to drive daily active users on Taobao, while also supplementing traditional e-commerce's "planned consumption" with "scene-triggered - instant ordering" for immediate consumption, meeting users' one-stop consumption needs. From the data perspective, in August, the average daily orders for instant retail reached 80 million, driving a 20% growth in monthly active users on the Taobao App, boosting advertising and CMR, and saving market expenses for acquiring new users and recalling lost users.

AI Expected to Empower E-commerce Growth & Efficiency: Alibaba's investment in AI is at a leading level in the industry, with e-commerce being an important application and transformation scenario. Recently, Alibaba launched the first super-intelligent agent "Wang Xiang Tai AI Wujie" in the e-commerce field to solve complex operational problems, providing merchants with a smarter, more versatile, and more reliable AI business partner across all operational scenarios such as demographics, products, keywords, and creativity, helping brands reduce costs, improve efficiency, and achieve growth.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations, intensified industry competition, risks of organizational restructuring, and technological development risks