2026 - The "Turning Point" for the Popularization of Smart Glasses?

Author: Long Yue

Source: Hard AI

Smart glasses are evolving from a technological concept into a consumer electronics category with considerable commercial prospects.

According to Citibank's latest research report on September 23, driven by AI capabilities, Meta Platforms' smart glasses products are moving towards a critical commercialization stage and are expected to reach a "tipping point" for mass market adoption by 2026. The report believes that Meta has established several years of first-mover advantage in this emerging field, potentially opening up a new growth path beyond traditional advertising business.

The report points out that the market's outlook on Meta's AI glasses strategy is becoming increasingly optimistic. This assessment is based on discussions with Erick Tseng, former Senior Director of AR/VR Product Management at Meta, as well as the capacity expansion plans of Meta partner EssilorLuxottica. It has been disclosed that EssilorLuxottica is preparing to increase the annual production capacity of Meta glasses to 10 million units by the end of 2026 to meet anticipated demand growth.

The report compares the potential adoption curve of smart glasses to the explosive growth of smartwatches and wireless earbuds, suggesting that it may replicate a similar success trajectory in the coming years. Data shows that sales of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses tripled in the first half of 2025.

"We believe that as super intelligence drives a broader transformation of internet experiences, smart glasses, as a natural extension of AI, are currently in the second wave of their adoption," analysts wrote in the report.

Three-Step Roadmap: AI Experience as the Current Focus

According to Erick Tseng, the adoption of smart glasses will go through three core stages or waves. The report believes that the market is currently in the second stage.

The first stage is "hands-free moments," such as taking photos and videos through voice commands. The report states that this feature has been widely adopted since the release of Ray-Ban Meta glasses in September 2023.

The second stage is "AI-powered experiences," which is the core of making glasses "smart." Although features powered by the Llama large model are already available, the report believes that the exploration of providing core AI use cases to consumers through glasses is still in its early stages. This highlights the importance of deeply integrating hardware with foundational models like Llama.

The third stage is "digital overlay," which has just begun. The launch of Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses on September 30, along with the potential to build AI interactive experiences with heads-up display functionality on the lenses, heralds the arrival of this stage. The report states that with the release of the second generation of smart glasses, Meta has "firmly entered the second stage," which may last for several years

Popularization Timeline: Benchmarking Smartwatches and Earbuds, but Price is Key

Citigroup's report agrees with Erick Tseng's assessment that smart glasses are about 12 to 24 months away from mainstream adoption. Their path to popularity is considered similar to that of Apple's Apple Watch and AirPods.

Historical data shows that smartwatches and wireless earbuds experienced significant growth in their second to fifth years post-launch. According to IDC data, the global smartwatch shipment volume had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% from 2014 to 2022, while wireless earbuds saw an even higher CAGR of 170% from 2016 to 2022.

Although smart glasses have the potential to replace smartphones in the long term, their short-term popularization still faces challenges. Erick Tseng pointed out that to accelerate adoption, product pricing may need to be further reduced.

Market demand is heating up. A consumer survey by Citigroup shows that about 12% of respondents plan to purchase Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, while the current ownership rate of the product is about 5%.

Based on this, analyst Veronika Dubajova predicts that by 2030, smart glasses will contribute approximately €3.7 billion in revenue to EssilorLuxottica, accounting for about 10% of its total sales, while the revenue for this segment in 2024 is expected to be less than €300 million.

Hardware Challenges and Competitive Landscape: Meta's First-Mover Advantage

The report points out that three major hardware limitations may affect the widespread adoption of smart glasses: appearance, battery life, and weight. Erick Tseng mentioned that 50 grams may be the maximum weight tolerable for users.

Although the latest second-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses have doubled the battery life compared to the previous generation, reaching about 6-8 hours, the report believes that a complete augmented reality (AR) experience may require all-day battery life. With the addition of more AI features, the hardware may still seem somewhat bulky in the short term.

In terms of the competitive landscape, the report believes that Meta is "years ahead of its competitors" and is defining this category. However, competition is intensifying:

• Google: Android XR glasses, developed in collaboration with Gentle Monster, Warby Parker, and others, are expected to launch later this year or next year.

• Snap: Plans to launch lighter and more immersive glasses in 2026.

• Apple: Has not announced any development plans for smart glasses.

This article is from WeChat Official Account "Hard AI". For more cutting-edge AI news, please click here