Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Adverse factors combined with a super typhoon, NVIDIA plays the capital closed loop again

[Market Dissection]

Super Typhoon "Haikashan" is approaching, with intensity comparable to "Mangkhut," characterized by strong intensity, large size, stable path, significant wind and rain impact, and extreme winds. In the past, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange would have suspended trading, but the rules have changed, and trading continues regardless of the typhoon's severity. The Hong Kong stock market has been somewhat affected, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.70% today.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the U.S. stock market has strengthened and continues to rise, while the Chinese stock market has not followed suit due to maintaining policy independence, leading to market interpretations of unmet expectations. Real estate stocks continued to decline today, with companies like Xincheng Development (01030) and Sunac China (01918) seeing declines of over 5%.

Regarding U.S.-China relations, communication has become more active following the leaders' meeting, with the U.S. Congress sending a senior delegation to China for the first time in six years.

However, some practical issues remain unresolved. The Trump team claims that the TikTok deal is close to completion, with investors including Oracle and Silver Lake Capital, indicating an intention to acquire TikTok. On the other hand, U.S. agricultural products are also facing difficulties. On September 22, the Argentine government announced a temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes on grains, beef, poultry, and other agricultural products.

According to media reports on the 23rd, several traders revealed that after Argentina implemented this policy, Chinese buyers ordered at least 10 shipments of Argentine soybeans, further impacting U.S. farmers who are already struggling with export barriers to China.

On the 12th of this month, due to the "West-2025" joint strategic exercise, Poland has closed all border crossings with Belarus. This decision directly cuts off an important land transport route for Chinese goods entering the EU via Russia, Belarus, and Poland. According to estimates from the European Rail Freight Association, currently, 85%-90% of China-Europe freight trains need to enter the EU through Poland, meaning about 300 trains loaded with electronic products, auto parts, photovoltaic components, and other goods are stranded in Belarus, leading to a more than 15% increase in comprehensive supply chain costs. The closure of the Poland route for China-Europe freight trains will have a certain impact on China-Europe trade.

Today, there are also reports that Chinese securities regulators have advised some local brokerages to suspend their real-world asset (RWA) tokenization business in Hong Kong. It is currently unclear how long the informal guidance from Chinese securities regulators to halt RWA business in Hong Kong for some brokerages will last, likely aimed at risk prevention. Guotai Junan International (01788) fell over 11%, with other securities stocks collectively declining.

In this environment, it is indeed difficult to find motivation for bullish positions, with funds continuing to seek safe-haven routes, and gold stocks performing relatively strongly. This is influenced not only by the weakening dollar but also by the continuous increase in central bank reserves. The proportion of gold in central bank reserves, excluding the Federal Reserve, has exceeded U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996. Over the past three years, central banks, including China, have continued to purchase gold and sell U.S. debt, with some central banks directly requesting an increase in gold reserve ratios to 30%. Spot gold has risen above $3,740 per ounce, setting a new historical high.

On the evening of September 22, Datang Gold announced that the company would issue up to 1.039 billion new shares at a price of HKD 0.275 per share, with the placement scale equivalent to 13.98% of the existing issued shares. After the placement is completed, the estimated net fundraising amount is approximately HKD 274 million One of the main investors in this placement is Victor Soar Investment Limited. This company is the largest shareholder, actual controller, and chairman of the board of the International Gold Group (03939), Mr. Gao Mingqing. After the completion of this placement, Mr. Gao Mingqing will become the second largest shareholder of Datang Gold (08299). With the big personal placement by the big boss, Datang Gold (08299) surged over 28%. If the transaction remains active, there may be opportunities for a transfer board.

Today's explosive market news is that chip manufacturer NVIDIA will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI and provide it with data center chips. Specifically, OpenAI will purchase chips from NVIDIA in cash, while NVIDIA will obtain non-controlling shares of OpenAI through the investment. Another closed loop has been created, which is quite similar to Oracle's approach. Here's a joke: OpenAI gave Oracle $100 billion, Oracle gave NVIDIA $100 billion, and then NVIDIA gave OpenAI $100 billion, resulting in stock price increases for all three companies. AI advertising company HuiLiang Technology (01860) rose over 5%, and cloud service provider Kingsoft Cloud (03896) rose nearly 4%.

According to the prospectus, Chery Automobile (09973) will complete its public offering application at noon on September 22, announce the final offer price on September 24, and disclose the situation of the Hong Kong public offering application and the enthusiasm for international sales. On September 25, H-shares will begin trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The market has preemptively speculated on related stocks, such as Zhejiang Shibao (01057), which rose over 12% due to certain business relationships, and Naisite (01316), which rose over 2%. Yesterday's mention of China Resources Power (01635), which has investments in Moore Threads and Yushu Technology, rose nearly 9% again today.

Weisheng Holdings (03393) announced that its subsidiary, Weisheng Group Limited, has won a contract for approximately 487,000 smart meters and low-voltage current transformers, with a contract value of approximately RMB 97.48 million. In addition, the company's subsidiary, Weisheng Information Technology Co., Ltd., also won a contract for approximately 37,000 smart integrated terminals and dedicated transformer collection terminals, with a contract value of approximately RMB 67.96 million (approximately HKD 74.22 million). The total contract amount obtained in this bidding ranks first. The stock rose nearly 7% today.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission recently announced 10 hydrogen energy pilot platform projects for central enterprises, including hydrogen liquefaction equipment pilot verification platforms, marine low-speed diesel and new fuel engine pilot verification platforms, 4MW combustion pilot verification platforms, and 10 tons/year carbon dioxide hydrogenation to methanol pilot verification platforms. This indicates support from policies and regulations, while also potentially accelerating the transformation of technological achievements in the industrial chain. Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582) has just completed a placement at HKD 54.03 per share, raising HKD 90.99 million, which is intended to fund investments and collaborations for hydrogen energy projects in China and overseas, such as partnering with Hylium to enter the South Korean hydrogen energy market. The stock rose nearly 11% today [Sector Focus]

The price of semiconductor silicon wafers is expected to rise significantly starting in Q4 2025. In addition to the huge incremental demand driven by AI chips, the non-AI sector is also experiencing a strong recovery, specifically including: 1. General server growth of 20% in 2025; 2. In terms of mature processes, TSMC and UMC's utilization rates are stable in Q4 2025, while SMIC's growth in H2 2025 has not slowed down, performing better than expected. Based on the expectation of price increases, global semiconductor silicon wafer companies have seen their stock prices rise sharply in the short term. GlobalWafers' stock price has risen 50% in 7 days, with U.S. brokerages raising EPS/rating/target price; Shenggao's stock price has risen 30% in 7 days; WLCSP's stock price has risen 40% in 5 days; Hejing's stock price has risen 35% in 5 days.

Main Hong Kong stocks: SMIC (00981), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), ASMPT (00522).

[Stock Picking]

Kingsoft Cloud (03896): Public cloud business performs well, AI drives strong growth

The company's Q2 revenue reached 2.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year/quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.2%/19.3%, primarily benefiting from sustained high growth in AI revenue. In Q2 2025, the adjusted gross profit reached 351 million yuan, with year-on-year/quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.4%/17.0%.

Commentary: AI has a positive impact on the main business, driving strong overall performance growth for the company, with excellent performance in the public cloud business. By segment, AI is the core driver. In Q2 2025, public cloud service revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% (compared to 14% in Q1); among which AI revenue was 730 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 120%, achieving three-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, accounting for 45% of public cloud service revenue; the demand for intelligent computing cloud has also driven an increase in basic cloud product revenue. By customer, Kingsoft and Xiaomi's contributions have increased. In Q2 2025, revenue from Kingsoft and Xiaomi was 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.5%, with the revenue share increasing to 27%; in H1 2025, it has completed 40% of this year's related transaction amount limit. Looking ahead, it is expected that with the company's continued investment in AI-related resources, and leveraging the synergistic advantages with Xiaomi and Kingsoft's ecosystem, the public cloud AI business will maintain strong growth. The industry cloud accelerated growth in Q2 2025, with AI projects landing and being delivered in multiple fields. In Q2 2025, industry cloud revenue was 724 million yuan, with year-on-year/quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.1%/17.4%, primarily benefiting from the continued growth in customer demand for software IT services and the accelerated completion of project deliveries in Q2. In the public service sector, the company is fully promoting government cloud and state-owned assets cloud business, jointly launching the Kingsoft Government AI integrated machine with Kingsoft Office. The company completed a new round of financing in Q2, and as of the end of June, the company's cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash reserves amounted to 5.52 billion yuan. Xiaomi's AI investment is clear, and Kingsoft Cloud will directly benefit from the growth in demand for foundational models and intelligent driving training