Despite the "controversy in perception," Bank of America: NVIDIA's "USD 100 billion investment" in OpenAI will earn 3-5 times profit

Bank of America believes that NVIDIA's investment of $100 billion in OpenAI is expected to bring NVIDIA $300 billion to $500 billion in revenue in the future and ensure its competitive advantage in AI infrastructure construction.

On September 22, according to Wall Street News, NVIDIA signed a letter of intent with OpenAI to establish a strategic partnership. NVIDIA will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which will utilize NVIDIA's systems to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts (GW) of AI data centers.

According to Hard AI, Bank of America subsequently released a research report estimating that this collaboration could create approximately $300 billion to $500 billion in cumulative revenue for NVIDIA in the future, while directly enhancing the competitive barriers against rivals such as Broadcom and AMD.

The research report pointed out that although this move may raise questions about "customer financing" in terms of "perception," it is essentially a strategic equity investment aimed at locking in OpenAI as a preferred strategic partner, thereby further consolidating NVIDIA's absolute dominance in AI computing and networking.

Interpretation of the "customer financing" controversy, a strategic equity investment

Making such a large-scale investment in a major customer raises external questions about accounting treatment and true intentions.

However, Bank of America analysts clarified this issue. Their core assumption is that NVIDIA will view this investment as similar to other large equity investments (such as the investment in CoreWeave), while OpenAI will be regarded as a normal commercial customer.

To help investors better understand the scale of this transaction, the report conducted a key comparative analysis.

Although the potential cumulative revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion sounds enormous, the report predicts that NVIDIA's total revenue during the calendar years 2026 to 2030 could be three times this figure.

From this perspective, OpenAI's share of NVIDIA's total sales will be between 15% and 25%. This is comparable to the share of several other large cloud customers of NVIDIA, meaning OpenAI will become another core major customer for NVIDIA, rather than a structurally "outlier."

Not "funding customers," but a strategic deployment of free cash flow

Bank of America analysts further analyzed that this investment is essentially a strategic deployment of the company's substantial free cash flow (FCF).

The report predicts that based on NVIDIA's revenue scale of up to $200 billion and a free cash flow profit margin of 40%-50%, the company will generate hundreds of billions of dollars in free cash flow in the coming years.

In the current environment, investing in other listed assets has become difficult due to a lack of strategic fit and cumbersome regulatory processes. Therefore, besides returning cash to investors, the best option is to invest in its own ecosystem. Bank of America believes that this ecosystem investment can bring multiple benefits:

• Expand the potential market size, creating several times the revenue for the future.
• Accelerate the time to market for new products.
• Gain political benefits, such as the recent investment in Intel.

Therefore, the investment in OpenAI is not merely "funding," but a wise move by NVIDIA to actively shape and expand its future market using its strong cash generation capabilities