Breakfast | NVIDIA's $100 billion investment ignites AI market, stock price rises nearly 4% to reach a new high

Market Overview

NVIDIA reignites AI enthusiasm, supporting the three major U.S. stock indices to reach new highs for the third consecutive day. NVIDIA closed up nearly 4%, Oracle rose over 6%, Apple increased over 4%, and Metsera, the weight-loss drug developer being acquired by Pfizer, surged nearly 61%; the China concept index fell nearly 1%, marking three consecutive declines, with Nio down over 6%, JD.com down over 3%, while Baidu rose nearly 1%.

U.S. Treasury bonds fell for the fourth consecutive day, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury reaching a two-week high. The U.S. dollar index fell on the first day after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, having reached a one-week high during the session before turning down; Bitcoin briefly dropped over $3,000, falling below the 113,000 mark, and Ethereum fell nearly 9%.

Gold reached a historic high, with futures rising for two consecutive days, increasing over 2% during the session. Crude oil fell for four consecutive days to a more than one-week low, dropping over 1% during the session before recovering most of the losses.

During the Asian session, the ChiNext index rebounded, rising 0.5%, and the Sci-Tech 50 rose over 3%, with chips and the fruit chain both surging. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.6%, while Baidu rose over 3% against the trend, and government bonds increased.

Key News

He Lifeng: Both China and the U.S. should be guided by the important consensus reached during the leaders' call to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations.

Pan Gongsheng: The press conference on Monday will not involve short-term policy adjustments, and further communication on the next steps for financial reform will occur after central unified deployment; during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the debt risk level of local government financing platforms has significantly converged; monetary policy will adhere to a domestic focus while considering external factors, currently being supportive and moderately accommodative.

CSRC: Deepening reforms of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, improving systems and mechanisms for issuance and listing, and cultivating and expanding patient capital.

The Navy's third type of carrier-based aircraft successfully took off and landed on the Fujian ship.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that they are considering "all stabilization options" to support Argentina, leading to a surge in Argentine stocks and bonds. Capital outflow from Argentina is accelerating, and Milei admitted that the "market is in a state of panic."

Federal Reserve Governor Milan: The estimated neutral interest rate is about 2.5%, and should be lowered by another 125 basis points this year; three Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for further rate cuts: there is limited room for further action, and there is no reason to cut rates again this year.

France and several other countries recognize the State of Palestine, with only the U.S. among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not recognizing it.

NVIDIA's largest investment commitment, planning to invest $100 billion to help OpenAI build a 10GW data center. NVIDIA's stock turned positive during the session, closing up nearly 4% to reach a new high.

Oracle changes leadership: dual CEOs take over, with the current Catz transitioning to vice chairman.

Berkshire Hathaway continues to increase its holdings in Japan's "five major trading companies," holding over 10% of Mitsui & Co., with Buffett becoming a "major shareholder."

Market Closing Report

U.S. and European stock markets: The S&P 500 index rose 0.44%, closing at 6,693.75 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14%, closing at 46,381.54 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.70%, closing at 22,788.976 points The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.13%, closing at 553.40 points.

A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, closing at 3828.58 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, closing at 13157.97 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.55%, closing at 3107.89 points.

Bond Market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was about 4.15%, up about 2 basis points during the day; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond was about 3.60%, up about 3 basis points during the day.

Commodities: WTI October crude oil futures fell 0.06%, closing at $62.64 per barrel. Brent November crude oil futures fell 0.16%, closing at $66.57 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures rose 1.87%, closing at $3775.1 per ounce.

News Details

Global Highlights

He Lifeng: China and the U.S. should lead with the important consensus reached in the conversation between the two heads of state, promoting stable, healthy, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations. According to Xinhua News Agency, He Lifeng stated that China and the U.S. have broad cooperation space and extensive common interests, hoping that the U.S. side will communicate candidly with the Chinese side based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, promoting stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations. He hopes that U.S. lawmakers will actively build communication channels, strengthen dialogue and exchanges, and play a positive role in the common development of the two countries.

Pan Gongsheng: The press conference on Monday will not involve short-term policy adjustments, and the next steps in financial reform will be communicated further after a unified deployment by the central government. Pan Gongsheng stated that overall, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the debt risk level of local government financing platforms has significantly converged. The number of financing platforms has decreased by more than 60%, and the scale of financial debt has decreased by more than 50%. In response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Pan Gongsheng said that the People's Bank of China adheres to a self-centered monetary policy, taking into account both domestic and international factors, and the current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A-shares worth 3.4 trillion yuan, and there are 269 companies listed overseas.

CSRC: Deepen the reforms of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, improve the systems and mechanisms for issuance and listing, and cultivate and grow patient capital. In the next step, the Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission will implement and detail the comprehensive deepening of capital market reform deployments Deeply implement the deployment of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and accelerate the advancement of the new round of comprehensive deepening of capital market reform tasks. Focus on serving the development of new productive forces, deepen the reforms of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange, improve the systems and mechanisms for issuance and listing, and cultivate and expand patient capital. Accelerate the development of a multi-level bond market, promote the improvement of the regulatory system and business model of futures with Chinese characteristics. Expand high-level institutional opening-up and enhance the attractiveness and competitiveness of China's capital market.

• Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, introduced at a press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" held by the State Council Information Office on Monday that as of the end of August this year, various types of medium- and long-term funds held a total of approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in the circulating market value of A-shares, an increase of 32% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan.

Navy's three types of carrier-based aircraft successfully take off and land on Fujian ship, training details exposed. The J-15T, J-35, and KJ-600 carrier-based aircraft have previously completed their first catapult takeoff and landing training on the Fujian ship, marking that the Fujian ship has the capability for electromagnetic catapult and recovery.

U.S. Treasury Secretary says considering "all stabilization options" to support Argentina, Argentine stocks and bonds surge. Yellen stated that necessary actions are being prepared to support Argentina, with "all stabilization options" under consideration, including but not limited to currency swap quotas, direct repurchase of Argentine pesos, and utilizing the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund to provide dollar-denominated debt. The Argentine stock index once rose over 8%, and the peso appreciated over 3% during the session.

• Capital outflow from Argentina accelerates, Milei admits "the market is in a state of panic". Milei admitted after losing in local elections that the market has entered a "state of panic." To defend the continuously depreciating peso, the government intervened using $1.1 billion of foreign exchange reserves within three days. However, capital outflow continues to accelerate, with the Argentine peso depreciating over 10% against the dollar in the past month, and both the bond and stock markets declining simultaneously.

Federal Reserve Governor Mester: Neutral interest rate estimate is about 2.5%, should lower interest rates by 125 basis points within the year. In her first policy speech since taking office as a Federal Reserve governor, Mester stated that the neutral interest rate may have been overestimated in the past and has recently been further suppressed by tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies. Mester's estimate of the neutral interest rate is about 2.5%, significantly lower than the median forecast of 3% by Federal Reserve officials. Several other officials also expect the neutral interest rate to be below 3%, but Mester is the only one calling for a rapid reduction to this level.

Three Federal Reserve officials pour cold water on interest rate cuts: Limited room for further action, no reason to cut again this year. This year's FOMC voting member Musalem stated that the premise for further rate cuts is that the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target has not increased; The price effect of tariffs will fade in the next two or three quarters, but we need to be wary of second-round effects and the threat of persistent inflation. Bostic is concerned that inflation will remain high for a long time and does not believe the labor market is in crisis, expecting more severe challenges in labor supply. Hamak is very worried about inflation, stating that the employment situation is still good and that caution is needed in easing to avoid overheating the economy.

Many countries, including France, recognize the State of Palestine, with only the United States among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not recognizing it. According to CCTV News, during a high-level international conference on the peaceful resolution of the Palestinian issue and the implementation of the "two-state solution" held at the UN on Monday, French President Macron announced that France officially recognizes the State of Palestine. Monaco, Luxembourg, Malta, and Andorra also announced their recognition of the State of Palestine. So far, 152 of the 193 UN member states have recognized the State of Palestine.

The cryptocurrency market crashes, with Ethereum and Solana leading the decline. On Monday, the cryptocurrency market experienced massive liquidations, with over $1.5 billion in long positions forcibly closed, triggering the most severe flash crash in nearly a month. This plunge was mainly caused by excessive leverage and the recent overheating of altcoins, with Ethereum being hit the hardest, losing nearly $500 million in leveraged long positions. Technical indicators show that the market has entered an oversold state, and analysts believe this is a correction of the previous market frenzy, marking the end of a brief "altcoin season."

NVIDIA's largest investment commitment! Investing $100 billion to help OpenAI build a 10GW data center. The first 1GW capacity NVIDIA system is planned to go live in the second half of next year, using the Vera Rubin platform.

• Jensen Huang stated that 10GW is equivalent to up to 5 million GPUs, which is equal to NVIDIA's total shipments this year and double that of last year. Altman mentioned that everyone should have high expectations for OpenAI in the coming months. He referred to both NVIDIA and Microsoft as "passive" investors and "most important partners" of OpenAI. NVIDIA's stock, which had initially dropped over 1%, quickly turned to gains, rising over 4% at midday and closing nearly 4% higher, setting a new historical high.
• NVIDIA's first AI development center in the Middle East is coming! The Abu Dhabi Technology Innovation Institute announced in collaboration with NVIDIA the establishment of a research laboratory in the UAE, which will be NVIDIA's first AI technology center in the Middle East. The institute will utilize NVIDIA's dedicated "Thor" chip to advance its research and development in areas such as humanoid robots, quadruped robots, and robotic arms.

Oracle changes leadership: dual CEOs take over, current Catz becomes vice chairman. Oracle announced significant personnel changes on Monday, promoting Cloud Infrastructure President Clay Magouyrk and Industry Applications President Mike Sicilia to co-CEOs Replacing Safra Catz, who will become the executive vice chairman of the board, Ellison will continue to serve as the chairman of the board and chief technology officer. Analysts believe that this handover comes at a time when Oracle's stock price is at a record high and its AI cloud business is growing rapidly. The company hopes to take this opportunity to promote a new generation of technology-oriented leadership and avoid organizational stagnation. Following the news, Oracle's stock price rose more than 5.4% during intraday trading.

Berkshire continues to increase its holdings in Japan's "five major trading companies," Buffett becomes a "major shareholder". Berkshire Hathaway, under Buffett, has increased its stake in Japan's Mitsui & Co. to over 10%, becoming a major shareholder. Previously, the company had also increased its holdings in another Japanese trading company, Mitsubishi Corporation, to the same level. Following the announcement, Mitsui & Co.'s stock price rose by 2.2% at one point, and the stock prices of several other large trading companies also generally increased.

Domestic Macro

China's September LPR quotation remains unchanged: 5-year LPR at 3.5%, 1-year LPR at 3%. The 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of "no action." Analysts believe that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a follow-up adjustment in the LPR quotations for both terms.

Steel industry "stability growth plan": average annual growth of 4%, strict prohibition on new capacity. The "Work Plan" proposes that from 2025 to 2026, the added value of the steel industry will grow at an average annual rate of about 4%, with economic benefits stabilizing and recovering, market supply and demand becoming more balanced, industrial structure being optimized, effective supply capacity continuously enhancing, and significant improvements in green low-carbon and digital development levels. It will implement precise control of capacity and output, promote graded and classified management of steel enterprises, strictly prohibit new capacity, guide resource elements to concentrate on advantageous enterprises, and promote survival of the fittest through output control to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand.

Domestic Companies

Detailed explanation of Huawei's super node cluster and its networking form, how to achieve large bandwidth, low latency, and high reliability? Huaxi Securities believes that Huawei achieves TB-level ultra-large bandwidth through multi-port aggregation and high-sealing technology, with Atlas 950 interconnection bandwidth reaching 16.3PB/s, which is 62 times that of NVIDIA's NVL144. By adopting an equal architecture and unified protocol, it achieves an ultra-low latency of 2.1 microseconds, a 24% improvement compared to the current 3 microseconds. It introduces nanosecond-level fault detection, protection switching mechanisms, and high-reliability interconnection protocols to support long-distance multi-cabinet interconnection.

Zhiyuan obtains the industry's first humanoid robot dataset CR certification, numbered "001". This move marks a key step for China in the standardization, quality evaluation, and industrial application of humanoid robot datasets ZhiYuan Robotics has successfully passed certification, which not only confirms the industry benchmark status of the AgiBot World dataset but also makes it a model for the standardization of humanoid robot datasets. This will help promote the formation of a "standardized, open, and efficient" data co-construction and sharing mechanism in the field of embodied intelligence.

DeepSeek-V3.1 Version Update. This update improves upon the model's existing capabilities based on user feedback, including: language consistency and Agent capabilities.

Overseas Macro

Musk and Trump "reunite for the first time after falling out," shaking hands, chatting, and sitting side by side. At the memorial service held last Sunday for Charlie Kirk, who was shot and killed, television footage captured Musk approaching Trump and sitting down in the empty seat beside him. The two then shook hands and engaged in a lively conversation. Musk later posted a photo with Trump on social media, captioned "For Charlie," suggesting that this thawing of relations was in memory of their mutual friend Kirk.

Has the market underestimated the possibility of rising U.S. stock earnings? Morgan Stanley: The Fed will have a "higher tolerance for inflation" next year. Morgan Stanley stated that positive operating leverage, declining wage costs, and pent-up demand are driving a positive shift in earnings per share, indicating that some concerns about an economic recession have passed. If the U.S. economy turns to recovery next year and the Fed cuts interest rates, corporate revenues and earnings growth in the U.S. stock market may far exceed expectations.

Goldman Sachs trader: U.S. stocks are like 1999, trading on liquidity, who still cares about fundamentals? People feel "money is depreciating, better to spend it than hold it". Goldman Sachs traders believe that despite recession alarms flashing, the market is entering a speculative phase dominated by liquidity. The current U.S. stock market is similar to that of 1999, with investment logic shifting from fundamentals to liquidity, market positions, and price trends. Consumers even have a mindset of "money is depreciating, better to spend it than hold it," and market sentiment is shifting from fear to "fear of missing out" (FOMO).

FOMO sweeps the entire market, speculative frenzy rolls toward traditional safe-haven assets! When all assets are surging simultaneously and the market is in a frenzy, it often indicates that risks are accumulating, which could eventually lead to a collapse in some segment, resulting in a significant drop.

The UK, Canada, and Australia issued formal statements on the same day, and the United Nations held a special meeting, ushering in a wave of recognition for the State of Palestine According to Global Times, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized that this is not a "reward" for Hamas, but an action to maintain the possibility of peace. Countries such as France and Belgium will also recognize the State of Palestine, bringing the total number of recognizing countries to over 140. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strongly opposes this, and U.S. Republican figures have also expressed opposition. Experts believe this has not only symbolic significance but will also have clear legal consequences, pushing for changes in the situation.

Overseas Companies

Reports indicate that Samsung has significantly raised memory and flash prices by 30%. Samsung has significantly increased the prices of memory and flash products, with DRAM products rising by as much as 30% and NAND flash prices increasing by 5-10%, due to supply shortages and a surge in demand from cloud enterprises. Micron and SanDisk have also announced similar price increases, with Micron's increase reaching 20-30% and halting new orders.

Antitrust trial begins, Google’s advertising business faces split threat. An alliance formed by the U.S. Department of Justice and several states is demanding that Google sell its advertising trading platform AdX, which charges online publishers a 20% fee for advertising auctions conducted when users load websites. The government is also seeking to have Google open-source the source code for its advertising bidding winning mechanism.

This year's financing has exceeded $20 billion, the model has become a "red sea," how much ammunition does the "digital currency treasury company" have left? As premiums compress, liquidity pressures mount, and valuations fall below net asset values, the industry is shifting from an explosion to internal competition. Most companies' stock prices have fallen below their net asset values, highlighting liquidity pressures, and the industry is facing consolidation. Leading companies are seeking survival through differentiated strategies, including locked token investments and enhanced liquidity. Funds are beginning to shift towards new tracks such as DeFi, real-world assets, and stablecoins.

Who can immediately power AI? The underestimated "value" of Bitcoin mining companies. Morgan Stanley believes that Bitcoin mining companies have approximately 6.3 gigawatts of operational large sites, with another 2.5 gigawatts under construction, making them the "fastest way to obtain power with the lowest execution risk" for AI companies. If mining sites are transformed into data centers, the equity value created could reach $5 to $8 per watt, far exceeding the current trading levels of many Bitcoin mining companies.

AI disrupts entertainment? Major internet platforms are the first to benefit, highlighting the value of "experiential" and "sports" assets. Morgan Stanley stated that large media companies are using AI to optimize content recommendations, reduce production costs, and enhance advertising efficiency, expecting to reduce program production costs by about 10%. In this context, experiential assets that cannot be replicated by AI, such as theme parks and live entertainment, as well as scarce top sports event copyrights, will further highlight their value

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