Who can immediately power AI? The underestimated "value" of Bitcoin mining companies

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence is triggering an unprecedented demand for electricity, while the supply that can immediately meet this demand is extremely limited.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, based on a research report from Morgan Stanley on the 21st, between 2025 and 2028, the United States is facing a power gap of up to 45 gigawatts (GW) for data centers. Even considering other innovative solutions such as natural gas and nuclear power, the gap still exists.

Unlike new projects that take years to connect to the grid, Bitcoin mining companies have ready-made, large sites and power capacity that are already connected to the grid. The report points out that U.S. Bitcoin mining companies have approximately 6.3 GW of operational large sites, along with an additional 2.5 GW of capacity under construction, making them the "fastest way to obtain power with the lowest execution risk" for AI companies.

Currently, many Bitcoin mining companies' stock valuations remain based on mining logic, with their "enterprise value/watt" (EV/Watt) metrics being extremely low. The report estimates that the equity value created by converting mining sites into data centers could reach $5 to $8 per watt, far exceeding the current trading levels of these companies. For investors, this may signify a significant value mismatch and potential Alpha opportunity.

Imminent Power Bottleneck

The demand for computing power from AI is growing exponentially, but this is constrained by hard limits on electricity. Morgan Stanley's model shows that between 2025 and 2028, the electricity demand for U.S. data centers is expected to be 65 GW. However, the near-term capacity that the grid can provide is only 15 GW, and with about 6 GW of data centers under construction, there remains a substantial power gap of approximately 45 GW.

The report analyzes that even if all innovative measures are considered, such as natural gas turbine trading (about 15-20 GW), Bloom Energy's fuel cells (about 5-8 GW), and utilizing existing nuclear power plants (about 5-15 GW), and assuming they can all be executed smoothly, by 2028, U.S. data center developers will still face a power shortage of about 5 to 15 GW. A recent survey report from Schneider Electric also confirms this challenge, stating that "obtaining power" has become the primary reason for delays in data center projects.

Undervalued "Electricity Spot": The Unique Value of Bitcoin Mining Sites

Under the power bottleneck, Bitcoin mining sites provide a seemingly unexpected yet logical solution. Morgan Stanley points out that these mining sites possess the core assets most valued by AI players: approved grid connections and large-scale power supply capabilities. This allows them to bypass the lengthy "large load interconnection" approval process that new data centers typically need to undergo.

Data shows that U.S. Bitcoin mining companies have approximately 6.3 GW of operational large (over 100 MW) sites, another 2.5 GW under construction, and 8.6 GW of projects that have received grid access permits. The report believes that these ready-made power resources hold extremely high value for AI companies, and converting these sites into AI data centers has a construction cycle of about 18 to 24 months The timeline for developing and perfecting power infrastructure for Bitcoin sites can perfectly align.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes that "Enterprise Value/Watt" (EV/Watt) is a key metric for assessing the value of such companies that the market has overlooked. Many Bitcoin mining companies are still significantly undervalued.

The economic value that can be created by transforming Bitcoin mining farms into HPC data centers is astonishing. Morgan Stanley conducted calculations using a value creation analysis model: assuming a Bitcoin mining company converts a 100-megawatt site into a "powered shell" data center (excluding chips and servers) and then leases it long-term to customers.

The analysis shows that if the tenant is a large cloud service provider (Hyperscaler), the project could create approximately $519 million in equity value, or $5.19 per watt. If the tenant is an emerging cloud service provider (Neocloud), the potential equity value is even higher, reaching approximately $781 million, or $7.81 per watt. The report points out that this value creation potential of about $5 to $8 per watt is far higher than the current trading levels of many Bitcoin mining stocks. This transaction structure typically uses project financing, has high leverage, and avoids the business risks associated with holding the chips themselves, making it attractive to all parties