The global competitive landscape of humanoid robots: China leads in commercialization, Tesla's Optimus V3 is the most watched, and South Korea is catching up with China and the United States

Morgan Stanley believes that the humanoid robot industry is at a critical turning point, rapidly transitioning from the technology demonstration phase to commercial applications, with a projected global market size reaching $5 trillion by 2050.

According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's latest research report indicates a tripartite structure in the global humanoid robot market, with China leading the commercialization process, Tesla's Optimus V3 setting the technological trend, and the South Korean government increasing investment to catch up.

Specifically, China is leading globally in commercial orders, with cumulative order amounts reaching 975 million RMB; Tesla's Optimus V3 has become the global focus due to its groundbreaking technological design; the South Korean government has announced the establishment of a 150 trillion KRW (approximately $108 billion) high-tech industry fund, actively chasing the two countries of China and the U.S.

Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2036, approximately 23.7 million humanoid robots will be in use globally, and by 2050, this number will reach 1.02 billion, with annual revenue approaching $5 trillion, about twice the total revenue of the world's top 20 automobile manufacturers in 2024.

It is worth mentioning that the Morgan Stanley Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen by 24.7% since its establishment on February 6, 2025, and the Chinese humanoid robot value chain has seen a staggering increase of 92.3% year-to-date, reflecting strong market confidence in this field.

China Leads Commercialization: Nearly One Billion Yuan Orders Witness Industrialization Process

Morgan Stanley states that China's humanoid robot industry is rapidly shifting from technology research and development to commercial applications.

Key data shows a significant acceleration in commercialization: Major domestic integrators (including Yushu Technology, UBTECH ROBOTICS, Aobo, Zhujidongli, and ZhiPingfang Robotics) have announced a total order amount close to 1 billion RMB (approximately $140 million). The largest single order comes from ZhiPingfang Robotics, which has secured a 500 million RMB order from HKC Semiconductor Display Production Base, planning to deploy 1,000 humanoid robots over the next three years.

Unprecedented government support: Various levels of government have established various industrial funds totaling approximately 187 billion RMB, and the national level has launched the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative aimed at accelerating the deployment of AI-driven robotic technology across industries; local governments are also actively responding, with ambitious development goals set in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, expecting to form a complete industrial ecosystem by 2027.

In terms of capital market performance, the equal-weight index of the Chinese humanoid robot value chain has increased by 92.3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the 37.6% increase of the MSCI China Index. Yushu has announced plans to submit an IPO application in the fourth quarter, which will become an important valuation benchmark for the industry.

Tesla's Optimus V3 Most Notable: Technological Breakthrough Leading Industry Direction

Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled the latest details of Optimus V3 at the All-In Summit, designed to possess human-level hand flexibility and advanced AI understanding of physical reality. This technological breakthrough has boosted industry sentiment globallyCore technological breakthroughs include:

Revolutionary advancements in hand design: The V3 version will possess human-level dexterity, with Tesla designing motors, gearboxes, and electronic systems from scratch. The company will showcase a new robotic hand with humanoid tendon design at the robot taxi day in October.

Significant improvement in AI computing power: Tesla's next-generation AI5 inference chip has a 40-fold performance increase over the AI4 version, providing strong computational support for advanced robotic reasoning capabilities.

Additionally, the mass production timeline has been updated. Musk stated that V3 is "the right design for mass production," having been almost completely redesigned compared to V2. It is expected to produce "hundreds" rather than the previously planned thousands by the end of 2025, with large-scale production starting in 2026. When annual production capacity reaches 1 million units, production costs are expected to drop to $20,000-$25,000.

In Musk's compensation plan, Tesla defines "robots" as "any mobile robot or other physical product that uses artificial intelligence," leaving room for future product diversification.

South Korea is catching up with China and the U.S.: $15 billion investment

Furthermore, the South Korean government and enterprises are actively laying out plans in the humanoid robot field, attempting to secure a position in the competition dominated by China and the U.S. The South Korean government announced the establishment of a 150 trillion won (approximately $108 billion) high-tech industry fund, focusing on investments in AI, robotics, and other fields.

At the corporate level, Hyundai Motor is showcasing the potential of humanoid robots through Boston Dynamics and plans to establish a robotics factory in the U.S. with an annual production capacity of 30,000 units. Samsung Electronics is building its humanoid robot ecosystem in both hardware and software, aiming to become a strong competitor in this field.

From a technological development perspective, South Korean companies like Rainbow Robotics have launched the RB-Y1 humanoid robot for industrial logistics applications, demonstrating certain technological capabilities. Although still lagging behind China and the U.S. in overall scale and commercialization progress, South Korea's traditional advantages in precision manufacturing and electronic technology provide a solid foundation for its development in the humanoid robot industry.

In terms of investment performance, the MSCI Korea Index Humanoid Robot 100 Index has risen by 29.1% since its establishment, performing the best among major indices, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for South Korea's development prospects in emerging technology fields such as humanoid robots