Next week's heavy schedule: "The Federal Reserve's favorite" inflation indicator, the "financial three giants" press conference, Alibaba Cloud Summit

September 22 - September 29 Key Financial Events Overview, all times in Beijing:

This week's key focus: China's September LPR, US August PCE Price Index, Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, Li Yunzhe attending the "14th Five-Year" series press conference, Xiaomi 17 series press conference benchmarked against iPhone, Alibaba 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference, etc.

In addition, PMI data for September from Europe, the US, and the UK will be released. The US will also publish August durable goods orders data. Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, will speak intensively. China will release year-on-year profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for August. Moore Threads will hold a meeting on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. Micron Technology's Q4 performance will be announced, having previously announced price increases and raised performance guidance. Costco's financial report will also be released. The Li Auto i6 will be launched, which is a five-seat pure electric SUV with a wheelbase of 3 meters, visually similar to the i8. Meanwhile, the campaign activities for the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will officially begin.

Economic Indicators

• "The Federal Reserve's Favorite Inflation Indicator" - August PCE Price Index

Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of 25 basis points this year on September 17, market attention quickly turned to the upcoming release of the "Federal Reserve's Favorite Inflation Indicator" - the August PCE, in search of more clues about the Fed's future monetary policy direction.

Wallstreetcn reported that Powell had previously indicated at a press conference that the US August PCE inflation rate is expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, and core PCE is expected to rise by 2.9% year-on-year. This prediction is consistent with the trend of the core PCE rising to 2.9% year-on-year in July, indicating the stubbornness of inflation, particularly driven by rising service costs.

Powell pointed out that tariffs contribute approximately 0.3-0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation, and the transmission of tariffs to inflation is slower and smaller than expected, but the impact still exists. The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast summary also raised the PCE inflation expectations for this year and the next two years, predicting that inflation will not return to the 2% target until 2028, indicating that inflation pressures are unlikely to fully dissipate in the short term.

Although the Fed's rate cut this time is based on changes in the employment market risks, the dot plot shows that a slight majority of officials expect two more rate cuts this year, specifically at the meetings in October and December. However, Powell also admitted that there are significant differences within the committee regarding the future rate cut path.

Therefore, the actual performance of the August PCE data, especially whether core PCE and service inflation are as mild as the Fed expects, and whether the transmission effects of tariffs become more apparent, will directly affect the market's judgment on the Fed's future rate cut pace. Any inflation rebound that exceeds expectations could exacerbate the Fed's difficulty in balancing its dual mandate of "maximum employment" and "price stability."

• U.S. September Markit Manufacturing PMI

On September 23, the U.S. will release the preliminary value of the September Markit Manufacturing PMI. In August, this data unexpectedly reached a three-year high, with manufacturing expansion accelerating and inflationary pressures significantly rising, which once led to a contraction in market rate cut expectations. Although the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates in September and hinted at possibly two more cuts within the year, if this data remains strong, it may reignite concerns about inflation resilience, adding uncertainty to the Fed's policy path.

• September 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR)

On September 22, the September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be announced. In August, the 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged for the third consecutive month.

Looking ahead, the Dongfang Jincheng macro research team stated that during the process of vigorously boosting domestic demand and "taking strong measures to stabilize the real estate market," there is still room for policy rates and LPR quotes to be lowered. Regarding the timing of the LPR reduction, the team believes that the central bank may implement a new round of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year, which would lead to a follow-up reduction in the LPR quotes for both terms.

Financial Events

• Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference to be held in Hangzhou from September 24 to 26

From September 24 to 26, the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held at Yunqi Town in Hangzhou. This conference, themed "Cloud Intelligence Integration · Carbon and Silicon Symbiosis," will gather over 2,000 guests from more than 50 countries to discuss the latest trends in AI, cloud computing, and industrial applications.

The conference will feature three main forums and focus on over 110 aggregated topics such as AI infrastructure, application expansion, and productivity reshaping, while simultaneously releasing a series of core technologies and cutting-edge new products. The total exhibition area will reach 40,000 square meters, with over 500 companies exhibiting and showcasing 3,500 products, including AI+ Pavilion, Computing Pavilion, and Cutting-edge Applications Pavilion, fully demonstrating the full-stack AI capabilities and rich AI implementation practices from chips to platforms, presenting a technological feast for the audience.

At that time, Alibaba Group CEO Eddie Wu, Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group CTO Zhou Jingren, and other industry leaders, as well as guests from well-known companies such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, NetEase, Ecovacs, and Li Auto, will attend.

• "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" Series Press Conference with Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in Attendance

The State Council Information Office will hold a series of themed press conferences on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" on September 22, 2025 (Monday) at 3 PM. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, Li Yunze, Director of the Financial Regulatory Administration, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will introduce the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and answer questions from reporters.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to Deliver Public Speech on Economic Outlook in Rhode Island, with Officials Milan, Bowman, and Others Speaking Intensively

According to the schedule, Powell will attend an economic outlook luncheon and speak in Rhode Island on Tuesday, September 23. He will engage in discussions about the economic outlook with over 500 business and community leadersThis event is expected to provide important insights into the economic conditions from Federal Reserve policymakers.

In addition to Powell, several Federal Reserve officials will speak publicly this week. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Milan will deliver a speech at the New York Economic Club, fully explaining the reasons for his dissent. Previously, he opposed a mere 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the Fed's September FOMC meeting, advocating instead for a doubling of the cut.

At the same time, officials such as Governor Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Daly, and New York Fed President Moussailem plan to express their views on economic issues.

• Xiaomi 17 Series Launch Event

Shortly after the release of Apple's iPhone 17 series, Xiaomi Group quickly responded by announcing that it would skip the 16 series and directly launch the Xiaomi 17 series of smartphones. This rare product naming strategy marks a comprehensive upgrade of Xiaomi's five-year high-end strategy, directly targeting competition with the iPhone of the same generation.

Wallstreetcn reported that on September 15, Xiaomi Group President Lu Weibing officially announced that the Xiaomi 17 series would be launched this month, a month earlier than the previous generation product, aiming to enter market competition sooner. This launch event will introduce three major products: Xiaomi 17, Xiaomi 17 Pro, and Xiaomi 17 Pro Max.

Xiaomi founder Lei Jun subsequently retweeted Lu Weibing's statement, emphasizing: “The Xiaomi 17 series features a generational upgrade in product strength, fully benchmarking against the iPhone, and facing it head-on!” This statement not only showcases Xiaomi's aggressive attitude in high-end market competition but also conveys high confidence in the new products.

Lu Weibing further elaborated on Xiaomi's significant investment in research and development, having invested over 100 billion yuan in the past five years, with plans to increase this to 200 billion yuan in the next five years. These technological accumulations will be fully reflected in the Xiaomi 17 series. Xiaomi's cross-generational naming, in sync with Apple's iPhone product line, is referred to by Lu Weibing as “the most significant leap in the history of Xiaomi smartphone digital series.” The three products have clear positioning: Xiaomi 17 is “the strongest standard flagship ever, with comprehensive upgrades, more features without increasing the price”; Xiaomi 17 Pro is “the most exquisite small-sized technology imaging flagship”; and Xiaomi 17 Pro Max is “the most powerful peak technology imaging flagship ever.”

• Moore Threads on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Meeting

According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's official website, the listing review committee of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is scheduled to hold the 40th listing review committee meeting of 2025 on September 26 to review the IPO matters of Moore Threads Intelligent Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. This means that Moore Threads is expected to become the first domestic GPU newcomer to complete the IPO milestone.

• Li Auto i6 Launch: Five-seat Pure Electric SUV, 3-meter Wheelbase, Appearance Similar to i8Li Auto's official WeChat account announced that the new five-seat SUV, Li Auto i6, will be officially released on September 26. The Li Auto i6 features an integrated shark shape and a two-tone body, with an overall appearance similar to the Li Auto i8, but lower and sportier. The Li Auto i6 has a restrained body size, measuring 4.95 meters in length, with over 3.3 meters of usable vertical space inside.

• The election campaign for the president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party begins

The focus of Japanese politics has completely shifted to the election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). On September 22, the announcement for the LDP presidential election will be officially released, and the campaign activities will fully commence. Previously, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation as LDP president on September 7 due to internal party pressure, marking the start of this election.

On September 22, candidates will present their political views after registration is accepted, followed by a joint press conference on the 23rd. On the 24th, candidates will participate in a discussion hosted by the Japan Press Club and hold local campaign events in Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and other places until the 30th, participating in an online policy discussion to maximize support within the party. Voting and counting for this election will take place on October 4.

Currently, five main competitors have emerged: former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, current Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshi Matsuno, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, and former Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi and Takashi Kobayashi. Notably, all five participated in last September's presidential election and ultimately lost to Shigeru Ishiba, leading the opposition parties to humorously refer to this election as the "revival battle of last year's losers."

Analysts generally believe that this election is expected to be completed between late September and early October, with a new prime minister possibly taking office in October. However, during this transition period, intensified factional struggles within the party will likely maintain a high level of political uncertainty in Japan, which may have some impact on the financial markets.

Financial Reports

• Micron Technology

Micron Technology is set to release its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2025 on September 24. The market is currently filled with optimism. Recently, Micron notified its channel partners that prices for storage products will significantly increase by 20%-30% and that all product quotations will be suspended.

Wall Street Insight reported that the company had previously raised its performance guidance for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 significantly. Revenue is expected to reach $11.1 billion to $11.3 billion, with gross margins improving to 44% to 45%, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.78 to $2.92, mainly due to significant improvements in DRAM pricing. This series of positive signals indicates that, driven by strong AI demand, the storage chip market is entering a more positive pricing cycle, laying the foundation for a strong performance in Micron's Q4 financial report.

Looking back at Micron Technology's Q3 financial report for fiscal year 2025 (ending in May), [revenue reached a record $9.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3749843?keyword=美光)，and exceeded analysts' expectations. In particular, sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips increased nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter, and data center revenue doubled year-over-year, all of which directly reflect the strong surge in AI-driven demand.

• Costco

Costco will announce its fourth-quarter financial report for fiscal year 2025 (ending in August) on September 26. The market is closely watching how it balances its sales with the increasing pressure of tariff costs.

Although the company exceeded revenue expectations in the third quarter (ending in May) with $63.2 billion, profits fell short of consensus expectations due to tariffs. Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip pointed out that about one-third of U.S. sales come from imported goods. While management has responded by adjusting procurement and increasing domestic sourcing of private label products, the long-term impact of tariffs on profit margins remains a focal point for investors