5 trillion "Triple Witching Day" volume hits a new high! Just now, U.S. stock trading volume reached "historical third-highest point"

Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve signaling continued easing, an unusually busy trading day due to a massive options expiration pushed the U.S. stock market to new historical highs.

On Friday, trading volume on U.S. exchanges surged to about 27.7 billion shares, marking the third-largest single-day volume since Bloomberg began compiling this data in 2008. This surge occurred on the record $5 trillion stock options and futures expiration day, known as "Triple Witching Day."

Driven by massive trading, Wall Street's stock market reached new highs. The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed 6,660 points, led by technology stocks. Since the low in April, the index's market capitalization has increased by nearly $15 trillion. However, the Russell 2000 index, which measures small companies, has retreated from record highs.

(Intraday performance of U.S. stock benchmark indices)

The core driver pushing the market higher is the Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that committee members would make rate decisions at successive meetings, but swap market data shows that traders are still betting on nearly two rate cuts by 2025.

Market Sentiment Optimistic but Divergent

Analysts generally believe that the Fed's actions have set a bullish tone for the stock market.

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler expects the market to continue rising after a brief consolidation. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett also pointed out that there is still room for the gains of large U.S. technology stocks over the past two years, and investors should prepare for further increases.

Fund flows also confirm this, as data from EPFR Global cited by Bank of America shows that for the week ending September 17, both global and U.S. stock funds recorded the largest single-week inflow since December of last year.

However, there are also cautious voices in the market. Mark Hackett of Nationwide noted that the current expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index is 22 times, volatility is suppressed, and a period of "consolidation or fluctuation would be a normal and healthy development."

David Lebovitz of JPMorgan Asset Management also stated that whether investors should feel nervous is an important question, given that the index is close to historical highs, spreads are near historical lows, and valuations are generally high.

Interestingly, a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that the number of bears has exceeded the number of bulls for the seventh consecutive week, indicating a divergence between some investors' sentiment and market trends.

Corporate Earnings Outlook Provides Support

The positive outlook for the upcoming earnings season also provides momentum for the stock market's rise.

Data shows that among S&P 500 companies that have provided third-quarter earnings guidance, over 22% expect to exceed analyst expectations, the highest proportion in the past year.

Additionally, the proportion of companies issuing earnings forecasts below expectations has also dropped to the lowest level in four quarters JP Morgan's David Lebovitz commented, "The elevated stock valuations reflect still solid fundamentals," which reassures them about a moderate overweight in stocks.

UBS Global Wealth Management's Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi stated:

In a non-recessionary environment, the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has historically helped support the stock market, and we see the stock market rising further supported by artificial intelligence, corporate earnings, and consumption