Newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Miran: The low interest rate expectations in the September dot plot were provided by me, and the vote was not influenced by political pressure

On Friday local time, newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated in a media interview that prior to this week's interest rate decision, he had only a brief conversation with President Trump and did not feel any voting pressure; his decision was made independently:

He called me on Tuesday morning to congratulate me, and that was it. I did not discuss my vote with him, nor did I talk about my position in the Summary of Economic Projections. Trump did not ask me to commit to taking any specific action. I have not communicated with Trump since the FOMC meeting.

Miran opposed a mere 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, instead supporting a doubling of the cut. He was the only one to cast a dissenting vote. Miran indicated that the market might be surprised that only one participant at the Federal Reserve's September FOMC monetary policy meeting held a dissenting view.

Miran recently stated that the low interest rate expectations in the September dot plot were his own, and that the Federal Reserve's rates are far from neutral levels. His forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of this year in the Summary of Economic Projections is significantly lower than that of most other participants in the FOMC meeting, and his outlook for future rates is also lower than that of most other officials.

In this regard, Miran said he does not expect to persuade anyone in such a short time, but hopes to convince some of his colleagues at the Federal Reserve in the future. Miran also noted that his expectations for the FOMC rate in 2026 are not significantly different from those of other participants.

Regarding inflation, Miran stated that he is clearly concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation, but he does not believe that tariffs will cause any substantial inflation. Trump's immigration policy will have a disinflationary effect. There are "turbulence" factors in import prices, including the dollar, which often correlate with price changes; for Federal Reserve policy, cumulative price levels are significant.

Miran indicated that the annual revision of non-farm payroll data suggests that the U.S. labor market is not as strong as people think.

Miran expects that the U.S. economic growth rate will improve in the second half of the year. The growth rate indicated by Federal Reserve policy is not significantly expanded, and he believes that potential growth will accelerate alongside actual growth.

Miran also stated that the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet plays a regulatory role and does not believe the Federal Reserve should engage in the allocation of credit assets.

When discussing White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Miran remarked that Hassett has his own unique insights on monetary policy. Hassett is a smart person, and if he were to succeed as Federal Reserve Chair, it would be our good fortune.

Friendly Atmosphere at the September FOMC Meeting

Despite the controversial nature of Miran's appointment process, he stated that the atmosphere at the meeting was very friendly, including his interactions with Cook. "Everyone was very welcoming, very friendly, and very kind. The atmosphere at the meeting was very harmonious, and I am truly grateful. This also includes Governor Cook."

Earlier that day, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also described the atmosphere of Miran joining the FOMC as "business as usual." "It's like any other personnel change; when someone joins, everyone says, hey, welcome aboard, and then everyone just continues their work as usual."

Independence of the Federal Reserve

Since Trump began his second term as President of the United States in January this year, the issue of the Federal Reserve's independence has received more attention. Trump has strongly urged the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates and even publicly nicknamed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell "Mr. Too Late." In previous U.S. administrations, pressure on the Federal Reserve has typically been more subtle.

Additionally, Trump attempted to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and stated that when selecting Powell's successor next year, whether they are willing to loosen monetary policy would be a "litmus test."

Meanwhile, Milan's decision to take a leave of absence from the position of Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) rather than resign directly has raised questions about potential conflicts of interest. However, he described these concerns as somewhat ridiculous, as he only intends to serve on the Federal Reserve until his interim term ends in January 2026:

I have only served as a Federal Reserve Governor for four and a half months.

If the President tells me that I will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor after January, I will immediately resign and leave the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), without a doubt.

People saying this has actually prompted me to want to fully express my views on Monday and explain in detail, as I do feel I have a responsibility to the public to clarify why my views differ so significantly from others.

Milan will deliver a speech on Monday at the Economic Club of New York, a platform that serves as an important stage for leaders in business and politics, where Trump has also spoken