Pony AI: Key profitability targets will be achieved in early 2026, and this year's Robotaxi production is expected to reach 1,000 units

Pony AI is expected to achieve the key milestone of breakeven on a per-vehicle economic basis by the end of 2025 or early 2026, marking the company's first step towards commercial profitability in the fierce Robotaxi competition.

Recently, Pony AI's Chief Financial Officer Wang Haojun stated in a media interview that the company is advancing this goal by expanding its fleet size, reducing insurance costs, and increasing its user base. He revealed that Pony AI has completed the production of 400 Robotaxis and plans to deploy 1,000 autonomous taxis globally by the end of this year.

This progress is significant for China's Robotaxi industry. HSBC Global Research analysts pointed out that the Chinese Robotaxi industry is at a critical point of commercialization breakthrough, expecting the size of China's Robotaxi fleet to grow tenfold from several thousand to tens of thousands between the second half of 2025 and 2026.

According to publicly available information, Pony AI is accelerating its commercialization pace by enhancing operational revenue through the large-scale deployment of unmanned fleets, laying the foundation for profitability. As one of the "big three" Robotaxi companies listed on NASDAQ, Pony AI competes with WeRide and Baidu Apollo Go in this strategically emerging market.

Expected to Achieve Per-Vehicle Profitability Goal This Year, Robotaxi Production May Reach 1,000 Units

Currently, Pony AI has completed the production of 400 Robotaxis, and Wang Haojun revealed that the company expects to expand its global fleet size to 1,000 vehicles by the end of this year. In comparison, WeRide had over 1,200 autonomous vehicles globally as of March.

Wang Haojun stated in a media interview:

"We are fully hopeful to achieve breakeven on a per-vehicle economic basis by the end of this year or early next year, and even record a positive profit margin."

Breakeven on a per-vehicle economic basis means that the company can earn profits with each additional vehicle added to the fleet, which is a key prerequisite for Robotaxi companies to achieve technological profitability. Wang Haojun emphasized:

"Achieving breakeven on a per-vehicle economic basis is our fundamental milestone. After breakeven, we can more actively further expand the fleet size."

Reports indicate that Pony AI's profitability strategy relies mainly on three aspects: expanding fleet size to dilute fixed costs, optimizing technology to reduce insurance and other operational costs, and continuously growing the user base to increase vehicle utilization rates.

In terms of market layout, Pony AI focuses on super-large cities in China such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Wang Haojun believes these cities are where Pony AI can first prove its capability for large-scale commercial Robotaxis. Although Pony AI has made some inroads into overseas markets such as Qatar, Dubai, and Luxembourg, he stated that the company is not in a hurry for overseas expansion.

Industry Prospects and Challenges Coexist

HSBC Global Research analysts pointed out in a recent report that the Chinese Robotaxi industry is at a critical point of commercialization breakthrough, thanks to technological advancements, regulatory support, and increased public acceptance. **They expect the size of China's Robotaxi fleet to grow tenfold between the second half of 2025 and 2026 **

UBS analysts estimate that by the end of the 2030s, the market size of Robotaxis in China could reach USD 183 billion, with the global market around USD 394 billion.**

However, Wang Haojun also admitted to facing challenges. Due to the one-time R&D investment expenditure for developing the next generation of Robotaxis, Pony AI's losses widened in the second quarter of this year, and he expects the annual performance to be similar. He stated that the main goal in the next two to three years is to further reduce hardware costs while maintaining safety standards.

Wang Haojun emphasized that winning consumers is the key to success in the Robotaxis race, and to achieve this, Robotaxis services need to be as convenient as traditional taxis, which means a city needs to have at least several hundred vehicles in operation