The largest scale "Triple Witching Day" in history in September, over $5 trillion in "options expiration"! Tonight, will the US stock market enter a "volatile window period"?
This Friday, over $5.3 trillion in nominal value of options will expire, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options. The total nominal value of expiring options is equivalent to 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale ever for September's "Triple Witching Day."
This Friday, the largest "Triple Witching Day" in history is approaching, with over $5 trillion worth of U.S. stock options and futures contracts set to expire on the same day, likely injecting more uncertainty into market trends.
"Triple Witching Day" refers to the third Friday of each quarter, when stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options all expire on the same day in the U.S. stock market.
According to Goldman Sachs options expert John Marshall, over $5.3 trillion in notional value of options will expire this Friday, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options.
In relative terms, the total notional value of the expiring options is equivalent to 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale for September's "Triple Witching Day" in history.
According to options analysis firm SpotGamma, nearly 90% of the positions expiring this time are call options. As these positions are closed out, the long stock positions held by traders for hedging will be unwound, meaning a significant source of market buying support will disappear.
For short-term market trends, Goldman Sachs predicts that the market's rebound momentum is expected to continue before the options expiration event on Friday, which is typically related to the "gamma squeeze" effect before expiration, followed by a pullback next week
