Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Interest Rate Cut Provides Opportunity for Adjustment, Self-Controlled AI Landscape is Promising

[Market Dissection]

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has landed, and the morning performance of both markets was quite normal. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surged to 3899 points, but in the afternoon, financial stocks led the decline, directly pushing the index down. The Hong Kong market experienced a similar situation, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.35%.

First, let's look at the interest rate cut situation, which was unsurprisingly a reduction of 25 basis points. Among the 12 FOMC members who voted, 11 supported a 25 basis point cut, with only one dissenting vote. The dissenting member was the newly confirmed board member Stephen Miran, who preferred a 50 basis point cut. Overall, Powell was "hawkish in words" but "dovish in action." Powell stated, "The risks facing the labor market that we see are the focus of today's decision," which maintains the dignity of the Federal Reserve, indicating that the rate cut was not due to external pressures but rather to manage risks.

The released "dot plot" shows that among the 19 officials, 10 (including the newly appointed Federal Reserve board member from the White House, Miran) expect two or more rate cuts this year. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecasts for this year and the next two years. This should be a relatively positive outcome, as there are at least two more rate cuts to come. Therefore, the performance of the U.S. stock market yesterday was initially down but then rebounded, showing a generally stable performance with minimal declines.

Looking back at yesterday's predictions: "Based on the high probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut, the market would typically be disappointed by this cut, even voting with their feet, and this expectation has long been priced in. However, considering that there will be multiple rate cuts ahead (this is the power of dovishness)... therefore, the U.S. stock market would initially suppress and then rise, and the script may need to be rewritten." This can be said to be almost unanimous.

Corresponding to the domestic stock market, it was also mentioned yesterday that there was basically no impact, and the morning was quite normal, especially as the A-shares even made a strong upward push at one point. Therefore, the afternoon situation had little to do with the rate cut. It seems to indicate a deliberate cooling down, from the forced suppression of CITIC Securities in A-shares yesterday to today's performance in the Hong Kong market, indicating that there is strength in suppressing the market, which is also related to news.

On September 18, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded to reports about Chinese internet regulatory agencies instructing companies like Alibaba and ByteDance to stop purchasing NVIDIA RTX Pro 6000D chips. Lin suggested that specific issues should be understood from the relevant Chinese authorities and emphasized opposition to discriminatory practices against specific countries in economic and technological matters. There was neither acknowledgment nor denial.

On September 18, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. The Ministry responded to the TikTok issue: it would never seek to reach any agreement at the expense of principles, corporate interests, and international fairness and justice; China hopes that the European side will not weaponize tariffs, eliminate market barriers, and encourage fair competition. Such statements demonstrate a tough stance, and although there has been a delay, it does not represent a compromise.

According to military news from CCTV, Defense Minister Dong Jun stated regarding the Taiwan issue that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post-war international order, and the historical and legal facts that Taiwan belongs to China are indisputable. The People's Liberation Army of China is always an indomitable and powerful force in defending national unity and will never allow any "Taiwan independence" separatist attempts to succeed. We are always ready to thwart any external military interference Every time similar remarks are made, the capital market feels tense.

Looking at the above events together, it may have something to do with the upcoming call between the leaders of China and the United States tomorrow; this is all forced out, and they just eat this set.

Overseas markets are starting to pay attention to the risks behind Oracle's huge orders. The latest warning comes from Moody's, one of the three major international credit rating agencies. The agency pointed out that the $300 billion AI contract recently signed by Oracle carries multiple potential risks, one of the main risks identified is "counterparty risk": the risk that Oracle faces in relying on the huge commitments of a few AI companies to fund its business model. This risk is actually well understood by everyone; it has been analyzed before, which is essentially transferring from one hand to the other, while the capital market makes a profit. NVIDIA's recent performance has not been good, and it is on the verge of breaking down.

On the domestic AI front, however, there is a thriving scene. Yesterday, media reported rumors of progress in chip autonomy; Huawei officially announced the iteration timeline for its Ascend chips, planning to launch the world's strongest super nodes and clusters. Huawei predicts that by 2035, the total computing power of society will increase by 100,000 times. Today, DeepSeek-R1 made history, and Liang Wenfeng's paper was featured on the cover of Nature, etc. All of this indicates that breaking the blockade is increasingly imminent, and domestic substitution is no longer just a slogan. The next step is to continuously replace foreign market shares, with Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) undoubtedly being the biggest beneficiary, rising another 2.66% today. An even larger increase was seen in Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347): AI applications are bringing new growth opportunities, such as power management chips for data centers and mature process chips for edge AI devices, which rose over 8% today, while the packaging company ASMPT (00522) rose over 7%.

On September 18, Weimob Group (02013) announced that the group has entered into a subscription agreement with the well-known international long-term investment institution Infini Capital, successfully raising $200 million, with the funds mainly used for AI investment and research and development as well as international expansion. As the first service provider for Tencent's social advertising, Weimob is backed by Tencent, and with the financial support, its future development momentum is strong, rising nearly 5% today.

Good news for robots again; according to IT Home, American plant-based pharmaceutical company PharmAGRI stated in a press release on the 15th of this month that it has signed a letter of intent with Tesla to deploy up to 10,000 Tesla Optimus3+ humanoid robots in farm operations, raw material drug synthesis, and prescription drug production. This is quite impressive, and supplier Sanken Electric (02050) rose nearly 5% again today.

Latest data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows that on September 17, shareholders of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) deposited their stocks with JP Morgan Securities (Hong Kong), with a market value of HKD 2.039 billion, accounting for 10.7%. On September 12, the signing ceremony for the development of embodied intelligent robots and the establishment of Changzhi (Sanya) Embodied Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. was held at Sanya Development Holdings Limited. Changzhi was jointly initiated by Changfei Company, Sanya Digital Economy Industrial Park, the robot body company, and Digital Huaxia. This transfer of warehouse by Changfei may be preparing for large-scale financing and strategic cooperation. Today, it rose nearly 5%. First Journey Holdings (00697) added investment in Weifen Zhifei to consolidate and enhance its leading position in the field of flying embodied intelligence Today it rose nearly 6%.

Yesterday, the sector focus mentioned: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the mandatory national standard for "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combined Driving Assistance Systems." The introduction of this standard has indeed played a significant role in promoting the intelligent driving industry. The mentioned stocks Horizon Robotics (09660), Black Sesame Intelligence (02533), SUTENG (02498), and Youjia Innovation (02431) all rose collectively, with Black Sesame Intelligence (02533) rising over 4%.

Today's adjustment does not have any particularly negative news; it is just that funds are intentionally controlling the pace using some news. Of course, what needs to be observed next is whether China's LPR will cut interest rates next Monday (September 22).

[Sector Focus]

On the 18th, a user on X posted: "xAI currently has installed and operating or under construction gas turbine capacity of 460 megawatts... xAI will be the first company to reach 1,000 megawatts (1 gigawatt) at a single data center site." Musk responded, "1 gigawatt is still a piece of cake. For continuous high power of 100 gigawatts (about 1/5 of the average electricity consumption in the U.S.), it may require solar/battery power. Above 1 terawatt (1,000 gigawatts), solar/battery is the only realistic option."

Main Varieties: GCL-Poly Energy (03800), Xinte Energy (01799), Tianyue Advanced (02631).

[Stock Picking]

Shenzhou Holdings (00861): AI Full-Stack Business Accelerates Development, New Orders Increase Significantly

In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.70%; net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 15 million yuan, turning from loss to profit year-on-year. The company's cost reduction and expense control effects are quite significant.

Comment: The company has sufficient orders on hand, and the performance improvement in the first half of the year is coupled with a significant increase in new orders. In the first half of 2025, the company signed new orders of approximately 9.476 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%; as of the first half of 2025, the total orders on hand amounted to 10.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%.

All three major business segments maintain growth momentum. By business segment, in the first half of 2025, the company's big data products and solutions business revenue was 1.430 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a gross profit of 319 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%; the software and operation services business revenue was 2.448 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross profit of 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. The revenue from the Xinchuang and traditional service business was 3.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with a gross profit of 402 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. In the first half of 2025, the company continued to promote the "Data x AI" strategic upgrade, strengthening the data intelligence technology base centered on the "Yanyun Infinity platform."

In the smart supply chain scenario, the company has taken the lead in implementing a full-stack data intelligence solution of "Data-Decision-Application," achieving deep penetration of "AI for Process." In the government and enterprise digitalization scenario, the company launched an end-to-end data intelligence solution integrating DeepSeek's private deployment, which has been successfully deployed in a municipal government service APP and created the first AI intelligent assistant It is reported that the company has previously signed a cooperation agreement with Shanghai Yidian to provide integrated supporting services for intelligent computing infrastructure. With the continuous implementation of relevant cooperation, the company's AI full-stack service landscape will be further expanded. Its data intelligence enterprise, Shenqi Digital, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with AVIC Cloud Data Co., Ltd