Early delivery times for the iPhone 17 series have increased, and Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Apple

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley stated that the early delivery times for the iPhone 17 series are flat or slightly extended compared to the same period last year. The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on Apple (AAPL.US) with a target price of $240.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the initial supply situation for the iPhone 17 series is better than last year, while the early delivery times are flat or slightly extended compared to the same period last year, indicating that early demand for the iPhone 17 may have increased year-on-year. This positive signal contrasts with the market's expectation of flat iPhone shipments for fiscal year 2026, bringing optimistic prospects for Apple.

The firm's data shows that within four days of starting pre-orders (as of September 16), the delivery times for the iPhone 17 series in most major markets globally showed a year-on-year flat or rising trend. Specifically:

iPhone 17 Pro Max: The delivery time in the United States is 22.5 days, with an international average of 24 days, significantly extended from the 19.4 days at the start of pre-orders. Compared to the international market, its delivery time increased by 1.2 days year-on-year.

iPhone 17 Pro: In the United States, it is 14.2 days, with an international average of 18.1 days, shortened by 2 days year-on-year, but the international market still grew by 2 days.

iPhone Air: In the United States, it is 6.7 days, with an international average of 7.9 days, shortened by 3 days year-on-year (compared to the iPhone 16 Plus), and it has not yet been launched in the Chinese market.

iPhone 17 Standard: The most outstanding performance, with a delivery time of 15.5 days in the United States and an international average of 19 days, extended by 6.5 days and 9 days year-on-year. The delivery time in the Chinese market reached 30.5 days, setting a two-year high.

These data indicate that the overall demand for the iPhone 17 is strong, especially for the base model and Pro Max model. The report emphasizes that the early supply situation is better than last year, mainly due to improved production yields and expanded capacity at factories in India—Apple is producing and shipping all new models simultaneously in India for the first time.

Morgan Stanley's report found through field research that current users' upgrade motivations mainly stem from replacing old devices. The average replacement cycle for iPhones is about 5 years, meaning that iPhone 12 users (the group from the last "super cycle") are natural upgraders this year.

Morgan Stanley expects Apple's revenue for fiscal year 2026 to grow by 6.5%, with iPhone revenue growing by 5.5% and service revenue growing by 12%. The gross margin is stable at around 46.9%, with earnings per share reaching $8.00. In a bullish scenario, an accelerated iPhone replacement cycle could drive higher revenue and earnings per share growth; in a bearish scenario, weak demand and tariff pressures could lead to a slowdown in growth