US Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Mixed as Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Approaches

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 17 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are mixed before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.07%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.07%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.04%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.23%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.10%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.64%, priced at $64.11 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.60%, priced at $68.06 per barrel.

Market News

The job market replaces inflation as the focus! The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision marks a significant policy shift. Federal Reserve officials are expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday local time to support the increasingly weak U.S. labor market. This move marks a shift in policy—previously, the Federal Reserve had remained on hold due to concerns about inflation triggered by tariffs. Investors will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and carefully interpret the latest economic forecasts for clues about the potential path of interest rates in the coming months. Federal Reserve watchers expect differing views among officials on employment and inflation issues will prevent them from committing to an aggressive pace of rate cuts. Bank of America senior economist Aditya Bhave stated, "Unless the labor market shows signs of sustained deterioration, each rate cut will be more difficult than the last."

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching, the market suddenly ramps up bets on a 50 basis point cut. Global U.S. Treasury traders are increasing options bets that the Federal Reserve will implement at least a 75 basis point rate cut in the remaining three FOMC monetary policy meetings this year, expecting a starting cut of 75 basis points. Meanwhile, the SOFR options trading heatmap shows that some traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one aggressive cut of up to 50 basis points in the remaining three FOMC monetary policy meetings this year, and they are even betting that the scale of rate cuts this year will be the same as in 2024, betting on a 100 basis point cut. Although expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September have warmed in recent trading days, a 25 basis point cut is seen as the most likely decision by the Federal Reserve.

Prepare for the "rate cut red envelope"! Short-term fluctuations in U.S. stocks do not change the long-term positive logic. JPMorgan's trading department stated that when the S&P 500 index is within 1% of its historical high and the Federal Reserve lowers the benchmark lending rate, the index averages an increase of nearly 15% in the following year The department also pointed out that this trend has become very evident in the year since the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last year, stating, "Since then, the S&P 500 index has risen by about 17%... This type of return aligns with our expectations of a 'non-recession environment with Federal Reserve rate cuts' in the coming months." However, despite the market's long-term positive response to rate cuts, short-term trends may be more volatile. JP Morgan's trading department noted that the stock market may experience fluctuations based on the tone of the Federal Reserve's statements.

Gold has strongly broken through the $3,700 mark, with Goldman Sachs aggressively raising its forecast to $5,000. Driven by the continued warming of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold prices have achieved a historic breakthrough—spot gold soared to $3,702.84 per ounce on Wednesday, breaking through the $3,700 mark for the first time and setting a new historical high. OANDA analyst Zain Vawda emphasized that although global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to drive safe-haven demand, this round of gold price increases is largely driven by market expectations of significant Federal Reserve rate cuts. Institutional bullish sentiment is high, with UBS raising its year-end gold price target to $3,800, while Goldman Sachs has made an aggressive prediction: if the private sector converts 1% of its U.S. Treasury holdings into gold, gold prices could approach $5,000.

Oil supply surplus alarm sounds, traders bet heavily that oil prices will plummet 25% by year-end. Recently, a trader made a large bet that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel by the end of this year. The core basis for this is that despite ongoing geopolitical risks from Ukraine to the Middle East, the growth in oil supply will outweigh the premiums brought by these risks. This bet reflects an increasingly shared view among several well-known global energy forecasting institutions: the oil market will fall into a supply surplus before the end of this year. Analysts at Macquarie pointed out in a report that global oil supply growth will lead to a daily surplus of about 3 million barrels in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2026.

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) reaches a confidential settlement regarding the 2019 Autopilot fatal accident in California. According to court documents, Tesla has reached a confidentiality agreement to resolve lawsuits related to two fatal accidents involving the company's Autopilot advanced driver assistance software in California in 2019. These settlement agreements were reached weeks after a jury in Florida ruled that Tesla must pay $243 million in compensatory and punitive damages to the victims of a fatal accident involving a Model S vehicle equipped with Autopilot in 2019.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) partners with AI giants like OpenAI to invest £11 billion in the "Stargate" project in the UK. NVIDIA stated that it is collaborating with CoreWeave (CRWV.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Nscale, and OpenAI to build artificial intelligence infrastructure in the UK to promote innovation, economic growth, and job opportunities. Nscale, OpenAI, and NVIDIA are jointly establishing a UK version of "Stargate," which will deploy Blackwell Ultra GPUs in Nscale's UK data center by 2026 Eli Lilly (LLY.US) oral weight loss drug trial shows 11.2% weight reduction! Doctors: It may reshape the obesity treatment landscape. At the European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference, doctors revealed the results of a large clinical trial for Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Orforglipron tablets—this drug achieved a significant weight reduction of 11.2% in obese adult patients, with side effects comparable to current injectable products. Although in another study, Orforglipron's weight loss effect was slightly inferior to Eli Lilly's own injectable drug Zepbound and Novo Nordisk (NVO.US)'s Wegovy, doctors emphasized that its oral form will greatly expand treatment accessibility—compared to injectables, tablets are easier to produce and more convenient to use, potentially leading to better price advantages.

AstraZeneca (AZN.US) star asthma drug Fasenra fails to meet primary endpoint in late-stage COPD study. AstraZeneca announced on Wednesday that its asthma drug Fasenra failed to control the incidence of acute exacerbations in a late-stage study involving patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, also known as "smoker's lung"). This poses a setback for the company's efforts to address this serious lung disease. AstraZeneca stated that Fasenra did not achieve the primary endpoint in the study compared to placebo and added that it will analyze the complete study data to better understand the results.

Trump's visit to the UK receives a "generous gift": GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US) commits $30 billion to US investment. British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline has pledged to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years. This announcement came as US President Trump arrived in the UK for a highly publicized state visit. GlaxoSmithKline CEO Emma Walmsley had stated earlier this year that the company plans to invest billions of dollars in the US over the next five years, calling it a "top priority market." The statement released on Wednesday not only specified the exact amount of this commitment but also preliminarily disclosed some of the intended investment directions.

Puerto Rico signs $4 billion LNG agreement, New Fortress Energy (NFE.US) stock price soars. The Governor of Puerto Rico confirmed on Tuesday that New Fortress Energy has reached a seven-year liquefied natural gas supply agreement worth $4 billion to supply liquefied natural gas to Puerto Rico, providing a boost to the financially strained company. This temporary agreement concluded months of turbulent negotiations, with both parties reaching a long-term agreement to supply liquefied natural gas to Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico's electricity demand relies on energy imports. Following a nearly 45% increase on Tuesday, New Fortress Energy's stock rose over 23% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30 US August building permits month-on-month preliminary value

Beijing time 20:30 US August housing starts annualized month-on-month rate

Beijing time the next day 02:00 Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary

Beijing time the next day 02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference