Guotai Junan Securities: Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW self-developed computing power chips gradually decoupling from overseas for domestic model training

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that last week the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, the electronics sector increased by 6.15%, and within the sub-industry, components rose by 11.33%. During the same period, the Hang Seng Tech Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and Taiwan Information Technology Index rose by 5.31%, 4.17%, and 6.05%, respectively. Following the performance-driven mainline market catalyzed by the rapid growth of the North American computing power industry chain, the semiconductor sector experienced a rapid increase in the context of TSMC (TSM.US) raising its annual performance guidance, and SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) expressing optimistic outlooks on future orders and market conditions during their earnings calls. The analog (anti-dumping against the U.S.) and storage (price increase) sectors, which have been heavily recommended by the firm, have recently seen significant market catalysts, and semiconductor self-sufficiency has once again become a market focus.

At the same time, Deepseek and Alibaba-W (09988) have stated that they are increasing their adaptation and procurement ratios for domestic computing power, while the supporting capabilities of domestic advanced processes are continuously improving, and the local computing power chain is experiencing a "Davis double hit." The firm maintains an optimistic judgment on the valuation expansion of the electronics sector in 2025 under the resonance of macro policy cycles, industrial inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles.

The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into U.S.-produced simulation chips, recommending the analog chip and wafer foundry sectors. On September 13, the Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips originating from the United States, with the dumping investigation period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, and the industry damage investigation period from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024; the investigation will begin on September 13, 2025, and is typically expected to conclude by September 13, 2026, but may be extended by six months under special circumstances; the products under investigation are general interface chips and gate driver chips using 40nm and above process technology. The firm believes that this investigation will help improve price competition and accelerate domestic substitution, with a focus on recommending companies including SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor.

Guosen Securities pointed out that Alibaba and Baidu Group-SW (09888) are developing their own computing power chips, gradually decoupling domestic model training from overseas. According to foreign media reports, Alibaba and Baidu have begun using internally designed chips to train AI large models. Alibaba mentioned in its latest earnings call that in response to global AI chip supply and policy changes, the company is preparing a "backup plan." Meanwhile, Baidu's "Kunlun Chip P800" is being adopted by both internal and external clients. In the centralized procurement project for general AI computing devices (inference type) by China Mobile from 2025 to 2026, AI server products based on Kunlun chips secured 70%, 70%, and 100% of the shares in three bidding packages, ranking first, with the scale of the winning orders reaching the billion level. Recently, domestic computing power chips have gradually replaced NVIDIA, reflecting the decoupling of China's AI development from the Western semiconductor ecosystem