Prediction: This Key Development Will Fast-Track Nvidia Becoming the World's First $10 Trillion Company

Nvidia (NVDA -1.55%) is in a league of its own. That's no exaggeration. The chipmaker is the only company on the planet with a market cap of more than $4 trillion.

Will Nvidia grow much larger over the next few years? Probably so. I even predict that it will be the world's first $10 trillion company. And I think one key development will fast-track Nvidia's historic achievement.

A new kind of artificial intelligence (AI) chip

At the AI Infrastructure Summit last week, Nvidia introduced its Rubin CPX. This product is a new class of GPU that's specifically designed for massive-context processing. Rubin CPX will allow AI models to handle over 1 million tokens (a token is the basic unit of text that large language models process).

Why is massive-context processing important? To develop software code, AI models must keep track of large codebases. Likewise, generative AI systems must be able to keep millions of tokens in memory to create long-form videos. Current technology limits the capabilities of AI in these areas, but Rubin CPX could pave the way for significant new advances.

Nvidia believes that this new technology "transforms AI coding assistants from simple code-generation tools into sophisticated systems that can comprehend and optimize large-scale software projects." It also thinks that Rubin CPX will provide "unprecedented capabilities" for creating high-quality long videos and in video search.

Perhaps the biggest claim Nvidia is making about Rubin CPX is that it will dramatically raise the bar in AI inference economics. The company says that this new GPU class could deliver a return on investment of between 30x and 50x at full scale.

Accelerating Nvidia's path to $10 trillion

I think Nvidia has a clear path to $10 trillion even without Rubin CPX. However, I also believe that the new technology will accelerate that path because of the use cases for the new chip. Some AI companies are already practically salivating at the capabilities that the massive-context GPU will open up.

For example, Michael Truell, CEO of AI-powered software company Cursor, predicts that Rubin CPX will transform how his company develops software. Cristóbal Valenzuela, CEO of generative AI company Runway, envisions independent creators and major studios being able to create videos with "unprecedented speed, realism, and control in their work."

Perhaps more than anything, Rubin CPX underscores Nvidia's commitment to pioneering AI advances. The company's Blackwell GPU, which is the most powerful AI chip ever, will quickly be obsoleted thanks to Nvidia's fast pace of development.

I fully expect Nvidia to roll out technology breakthroughs after Rubin CPX that further cement its dominance in the AI chip market. The bigger those breakthroughs are, the bigger the market opportunity will probably be.

How long will it take?

Now for a dash of cold water: Rubin CPX won't be available until the end of 2026. However, I don't think that's a problem with Nvidia's march toward a $10 trillion market cap. How long will it take? I predict it will happen by 2030, if not sooner.

To grow from its current market cap of around $4.3 trillion to $10 trillion over the next five years, Nvidia's valuation would need to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 18.3%. The company's earnings skyrocketed 59% higher year over year in the second quarter of 2025.

Sure, this growth rate is likely to decline going forward. Wall Street analysts project earnings growth of around 41% for Nvidia in 2026. Even if the company's growth slows significantly more than that, it would still be more than enough to propel Nvidia to a market cap of $10 trillion by 2030. But if Rubin CPX and its successors are the winners I expect them to be, Nvidia's growth will remain strong.