大摩：对内地软件行业持谨慎态度 首选北森控股
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that, regarding the fundamentals of the mainland software industry, the bank remains cautious due to expectations of a slowdown in mainland GDP growth and ongoing deflationary pressures. Corporate confidence in IT investment remains low, and it is believed that recovery will only occur 1 to 2 years after deflation ends. Before a substantial turnaround in demand, any new technology trends driven by the supply side can only lead to a redistribution of existing budgets in the market. In terms of funding, the bank believes that the sector will follow overall market liquidity in a low-interest-rate environment and will have higher elasticity (Beta), as the allocation weight of active funds is extremely low. Thematic investments such as AI applications, technology localization, and stablecoins may have a significant impact on stock prices, but currently, the bank has not identified any themes that can truly reverse the industry's fundamentals. In terms of shares, the bank strongly recommends H shares over A shares; the industry preference is Beisen Holding, with a target price of HKD 10.3 and a rating of "Overweight," expecting revenue to accelerate growth. The next preferences are KINGDEE INT'L, CHINASOFT INT'L, and KINGSOFT, with target prices of HKD 14.2, HKD 6.6 (originally HKD 5.4), and HKD 38, all rated "In Line with the Market."
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the bank remains cautious about the fundamentals of the mainland software industry, as it expects GDP growth in the mainland to slow down, and deflationary pressures still exist. Corporate confidence in IT investment remains low, and it believes that recovery will only occur 1 to 2 years after deflation ends. Before a substantial turnaround in demand occurs, any new technology trends driven by the supply side can only lead to a redistribution of existing budgets in the market.
In terms of funding, the bank believes that the sector will follow overall market liquidity in a low-interest-rate environment and has higher elasticity (Beta), as the allocation weight of active funds is extremely low. Thematic investments such as AI applications, technology localization, and stablecoins may have a significant impact on stock prices, but the bank has not yet identified any themes that can truly reverse the industry's fundamentals.
In terms of shares, the bank strongly recommends H-shares over A-shares; the industry preference is for BEISEN HOLDING (09669), with a target price of HKD 10.3 and a rating of "Overweight," expecting revenue to accelerate growth. The next preferences are KINGDEE INT'L (00268), CHINASOFT INT'L (00354), and KINGSOFT (03888), with target prices of HKD 14.2, HKD 6.6 (originally HKD 5.4), and HKD 38, all rated "In Line with the Market."
