Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | TikTok reaches framework agreement but uncertainties remain, Tesla's surge drives the industry chain

[Market Dissection]

This week, two major events have yet to be finalized, and the market will naturally be cautious. Hong Kong stocks opened higher today, filled the gap, and fluctuated, closing down 0.03%.

First, let's look at the situation of the China-U.S. talks. Both sides have reached a framework agreement for the short video application TikTok to be controlled by the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that the original deadline of September 17 may be extended by 90 days to complete the deal, but he refused to disclose specific details. China's chief trade negotiator Li Chenggang told reporters that both sides have reached a basic framework consensus to properly resolve TikTok-related issues through cooperation, reduce investment barriers, and promote relevant economic and trade cooperation.

Currently, it seems likely that both sides will make some concessions. U.S. President Trump stated that he will speak with President Xi on Friday and confirmed that an agreement has been reached regarding TikTok, and a decision will be made during the call. Ultimately, we will wait for the call to finalize things. Overall, because other issues are also involved, it is expected to be difficult to reach an agreement on everything. During this negotiation period, both sides have taken actions; the U.S. has deployed the "Aegis" missile system in Japan for the first time, engaging in some useless maneuvers that are not substantial bargaining chips. Therefore, uncertainties still exist.

The reason the market can remain stable is primarily due to the anticipated interest rate cut on Thursday. According to the latest market predictions, it is estimated to be 25 basis points, along with dovish remarks. The CXO sector is relatively stronger, such as Pharmaron (03759) announcing that its wholly-owned subsidiary successfully passed the U.S. FDA on-site inspection. This indicates that its U.S. business is unaffected, and today it rose over 9%. Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) and WuXi AppTec (02268) also showed steady performance.

Recently, the newly included Hong Kong Stock Connect targets that have been exceptionally hot are showing signs of retreat. The previously mentioned TRANSTHERA-B (02617) surged by 63% in the morning but then entered a dive mode in the afternoon, ultimately falling over 53%. There is also Brainstorm Aurora-B (06681), which has been heavily speculated as "the first domestic digital therapy stock for cognitive impairment," and since its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect (September 8), its maximum increase has reached an astonishing 1.6 times. Today, it surged and then fell back but still rose over 16%. MIRXES-B (02629) has a core product, GASTRO ClearTM, which is the only approved molecular diagnostic IVD product for gastric cancer screening in the global market, holding a significant market share in Southeast Asia, and it rose 13% after a surge and fall; Auntie Hu (02589) surged by 38% in the morning but then declined, only rising 6%. These stocks all saw huge volumes today, and the big profits have passed, with many small fish bones left at the tail end.

Musk has finally returned to a normal working state. According to Tesla's official "FORM 4" document, Musk bought a total of 2.57 million shares of Tesla stock last Friday (September 12), with purchase prices ranging from $371.9 to $396.359 per share. The stock price has recently surged sharply. Tesla has set phased goals for Musk, one of which requires the cumulative delivery of 1 million humanoid robots within 10 years. Musk himself stated this year that he hopes to increase the annual production of the humanoid robot Optimus to 1 million units within five years Elon Musk stated that he plans to conduct a technical assessment of the AI5 chip design on Saturday, and a meeting will be held next week regarding artificial intelligence/autonomous driving systems, the Optimus robot, and vehicle production. According to recent research from multiple companies in the supply chain, production guidance is likely to exceed expectations. Several Tier 1 suppliers have indicated that they have received mass production notifications for Q1 2026, and the capacity preparations for gearbox and screw manufacturers are at least at the level of over 100,000 units.

The most authentic part of Tesla's robot supply chain is Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050): the company is deeply tied to Tesla and is its main supplier of humanoid robot actuator assemblies, in addition to having liquid cooling and energy storage businesses, which surged nearly 13% today. Tesla's significant rise in U.S. stocks has ignited many sectors, such as autonomous driving. The stock mentioned yesterday, Nexperia (01316), has received line control steering orders from Tesla, Li Auto, ZEEKR, and other car manufacturers, with deliveries starting in 2026. It also rose over 6% today.

Domestically, it seems that Chuan Yu Technology is about to pass the review, indicating that its listing is imminent, and the domestic robot industry is also being boosted. Maxon Motor Holdings (00179) has established a joint venture with Shanghai Mechanical and Electrical to develop key components such as humanoid robot joints and actuators, and it is also a supplier of Tesla's EPS motors, which surged over 16% today.

Recently, Yuejiang (02432) announced significant technological achievements, with its humanoid robot Atom successfully completing the country's first industrial cross-scenario multi-task collaborative generalized application, breaking industry barriers with two core technological innovations. Currently, the robot has successfully implemented real-world scenarios such as warehouse anomaly handling, precision component quality inspection, and multi-machine collaborative mobile operations, achieving a key leap from "single task execution" to "autonomous decision-making + multi-task closed-loop management." Additionally, on September 15, 2025, the board has proposed to adopt the company's H-share stock option plan. Generally, stock incentive plans tend to stimulate price increases, and today it rose nearly 6%, while other stocks like Youbixuan (09880) rose nearly 5%.

In the energy storage sector, Jiangsu Longpan Technology (02465) signed a significant contract announcement with CATL (03750), which is expected to sell a total of 157,500 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials that meet the agreed specifications to CATL's overseas factories from the second quarter of 2026 to 2031, with an estimated amount of 6 billion. By securing large orders in advance, Longpan Technology (02465) surged over 27%.

On September 2, the price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass was raised by 2 yuan/square meter compared to early August, showing positive results from anti-internal curling. The photovoltaic glass industry is in good shape, with Fuyao Glass (06865) and Xinyi Glass (00868) both seeing a rise of 5%.

SF Express (09699) officially launched its "SoFast" brand in Macau, marking the first time it has provided on-demand services overseas since its launch in Hong Kong last July. It has reached a strategic cooperation with Macau's largest local life service platform, "Aomi APP," and surged nearly 12% On September 15, Meituan (03690) officially launched its international takeaway brand Keeta in Kuwait, becoming its third location in the Middle East Gulf region after Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is reported that since entering Saudi Arabia in September 2024, Keeta's user base and order volume have rapidly increased. In August this year, Keeta launched in Qatar, and less than a month later, it officially entered Kuwait. In the future, Keeta will continue to deepen its presence in the Middle East and actively explore more overseas new markets. The continuous expansion overseas is a new strategy for Meituan, which rose over 3% today.

Geely Automobile (00175) announced that the company will privatize by acquiring all issued and outstanding shares of ZEEKR and ZEEKR American Depositary Shares (excluding excluded ZEEKR shares). On September 15, 2025, according to the laws of the Cayman Islands, the proposed transaction under the merger agreement will receive formal approval from ZEEKR shareholders at the ZEEKR shareholder meeting. The stock rose over 3%.

【Sector Focus】

According to Guojin Transportation: The release of public and business demand in the aviation industry has led to a year-on-year increase in domestic ticket prices. Last week (9/8-9/14), the domestic ticket price across the industry increased by 4% year-on-year, compared to +4% in 2019, and increased by 5% month-on-month; the domestic full ticket price remained flat year-on-year, compared to +6% in 2019, and increased by 5% month-on-month. Among them, the business line ticket price remained flat year-on-year, compared to -5% in 2019, and increased by 7% month-on-month, with the improvement in ticket prices month-on-month benefiting from the release of public and business demand.

The civil aviation "anti-involution" continues. On August 14, the "Self-Discipline Convention for Air Passenger Transport" was officially released by the China Air Transport Association, proposing that "enterprises strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations such as the Price Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and eliminate malicious competition aimed at squeezing out competitors (such as dumping below cost, false advertising, etc.)".

Low oil prices are favorable for airlines. On September 7 local time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) reached an agreement in an online meeting, with eight member countries starting to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October and gradually withdrawing some previously voluntarily implemented production cuts. The three major airlines are highly sensitive to oil prices; if oil prices decrease by 1%, aviation fuel costs are expected to decrease by 400-500 million yuan.

Main varieties: Air China (00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), China Southern Airlines (01055). The strengthening of aviation also means an improvement in the tourism industry, such as Tongcheng Travel (00780).

【Individual Stock Opportunities】

Tongcheng Travel (00780): Core OTA business operating profit margin continues to optimize, and business will improve in the second half of the year

The financial report shows that in the first half of 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 9.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%; adjusted EBITDA of 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%; and adjusted net profit of 1.56 billion yuan. Notably, in the first half of 2025, Tongcheng Travel's other income, including online vacation services, reached 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1% Commentary: Tongcheng Travel's revenue in the second quarter was 4.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, slightly higher than the expected 4.6 billion yuan by about 0.7%; operating profit was 810 million yuan, exceeding expectations by 11.4%. The operating profit margin of the core OTA business continues to optimize, mainly due to improved subsidy efficiency and increased operational leverage; adjusted net profit was 770 million yuan, exceeding expectations by 3.3%. The company's revenue performance this quarter was slightly above expectations, and the profit margin exceeded expectations. The user scale reached a new high. In Q2 2025, the average monthly paying user count was 46.5 million, year-on-year +9.2%, with annual paying users at over 250 million, year-on-year +10.2%, and annual service instances at 1.99 billion, year-on-year +7.2%. Among them, registered users from non-first-tier cities accounted for over 87%, with 69% of new paying users on the WeChat platform coming from non-first-tier cities in China.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the average room rate trend in the hotel industry for the third quarter is improving, and it is expected that hotel business and accommodation nights will see slight growth, surpassing industry levels, while the transportation ticketing business aligns more closely with industry trends