U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together as "Terrifying Data" is About to be Released

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 16 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.22%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.54%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.26%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.15%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.16%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.54%, priced at $63.64 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.34%, priced at $67.67 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. August retail sales may grow against the trend, consumer resilience becomes a key support for the economy. The U.S. economy showed overall weakness in August, with hiring slowing, unemployment rising, and inflation rebounding, signaling pressure from multiple indicators. However, consumer spending may become a bright spot against the trend. According to FactSet consensus expectations, the U.S. August retail sales, known as "terrifying data," are expected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month; excluding automobiles and gasoline, core retail sales are expected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that declining auto sales may drag down overall data performance.

S&P 500 valuation anxiety shifts! Earnings growth lags behind stock price increases, signs of bubbles emerge in non-tech sectors. Although critics point out that the rise of the S&P 500 index this year has largely been driven by the tech sector, the profit growth of these tech giants has outpaced stock price increases, largely proving that their high valuations are justified. Other parts of the market are starting to appear somewhat overvalued. Data shows that the S&P 500 index, excluding the tech sector, has risen 13% over the past year, but profits have only grown by 6.4%. In contrast, the S&P 500 Information Technology Index has risen by 27%, which seems relatively restrained compared to the sector's 26.9% profit growth. Senior investment strategist Jim Paulsen believes that stocks in the S&P 500 index, excluding tech stocks, are showing more signs of bubble formation, with their profit growth lagging significantly behind stock price performance.

Intense political maneuvering before the Fed's September meeting: Trump's "trusted aide" successfully enters, but the removal of Governor Cook fails. The efforts of the Trump administration to influence Fed decisions have led to intense maneuvering with the central bank's independence. The U.S. Senate narrowly approved Trump's economic advisor Stephen Moore to enter the Federal Reserve Board, strengthening Trump's influence over monetary policy Milan supports interest rate cuts and is expected to advocate for greater easing at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia has rejected Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, upholding the independence of the Federal Reserve. The court ruled that the president does not have the authority to dismiss a governor based on policy positions.

Interest rate cuts ≠ positive news? JPMorgan warns: If the Federal Reserve is forced by politics, market risks will surge. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that if the widely expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is perceived as being under political pressure and contradicts the Fed's own economic forecasts, this move will increase risks faced by the stock market, bond market, and the dollar. Kelly said, "If the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates this week is seen as a concession to political pressure, then the U.S. financial markets and the dollar will face a new layer of risk." He believes that "the current market is showing signs of being in a bubble," and implementing easing policies at this time is unlikely to boost demand and may instead suppress it, "ultimately having a negative impact on the stock market, bond market, and the dollar."

The gold bull market remains unchanged but needs a breather! Experts: Short-term pullback may occur, building momentum for a $4,000 breakthrough in 2026. Traders and industry experts indicate that a healthy pullback may occur before breaking the $4,000 per ounce barrier in 2026. Renisha Chainani, head of research at Mumbai refiner Augmont, stated, "The long-term gold bull market seems to remain solid, as demand, especially from central banks and ETFs, continues to grow at a faster pace. However, gold is currently in an overbought zone, and a pullback of 5% to 6% may occur in the short term, followed by consolidation, before rising again to break the new high of $4,200 in 2026."

Individual Stock News

Oracle (ORCL.US) rises pre-market, reportedly involved in forming a consortium to maintain TikTok's operations in the U.S. According to media reports, Oracle is participating in a consortium attempting to keep TikTok operating in the U.S. under a potential framework agreement between China and the U.S. The report cites informed sources stating that the specific structure of the deal remains unclear, but it may involve a joint consortium of multiple companies, and the future involvement of TikTok's owner ByteDance is also uncertain. As of the time of publication, Oracle's stock rose over 5% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Tesla (TSLA.US) faces door handle controversy with some 2021 Model Y vehicles, U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launches investigation. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced on Tuesday that it will initiate a so-called "preliminary assessment" regarding the potential power failure of electronic door handles in certain Tesla Model Y vehicles. This investigation covers some 2021 Model Y models. In recent days, an investigation revealed multiple incidents where occupants were injured or killed because they could not open the doors after the vehicle lost power. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration stated, "This investigation focuses on the operability of the external electronic door locks, as there is currently no manual way to open the doors in such cases. The agency will continue to monitor all reports of being trapped inside the vehicle and will take further action as necessary based on the vehicle defect investigation office's findings NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) new RTX6000D chip for the Chinese market encounters a chill, with mainstream companies showing little interest. Two sources familiar with the procurement negotiations revealed that NVIDIA's new artificial intelligence chip RTX6000D, specifically designed for the Chinese market, is currently facing weak market demand, with some mainstream tech companies even choosing to hold off on orders. These sources indicated that the RTX6000D is primarily used for AI inference tasks, but its pricing is considered high relative to its performance, leading to insufficient cost-effectiveness. The chill surrounding the RTX6000D sharply contrasts with the optimistic expectations previously held by sell-side analysts. JP Morgan predicted last month in a report that the production of RTX6000D could reach 1.5 million units in the second half of this year; Morgan Stanley had estimated in July that NVIDIA's stock of RTX6000D would reach 2 million units.

AI demand + Chinese subsidies drive TSMC's (TSM.US) Q2 market share to 38%, taking the lead. According to Counterpoint Research data, TSMC's market share in the semiconductor foundry market soared to 38% in the second quarter of the 2025 calendar year, a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points, compared to 31% in the same period last year. This growth is attributed to a 19% year-on-year increase in overall foundry revenue, primarily driven by strong demand for advanced processes and packaging technology from AI, along with a significant contribution from the pull-forward effect caused by China's subsidy policies. Counterpoint predicts that foundry revenue will continue to grow in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a moderate single-digit increase. As of the time of writing, TSMC's stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Google's (GOOGL.US) concession proposal rejected by the Justice Department: merely splitting off business does not meet the requirement for forced sale of AdX. Google had considered divesting some of its advertising technology business to address antitrust concerns in Europe and the U.S., but external lawyers for the tech giant claimed that the Justice Department's demands go further—forcing it to sell its advertising trading platform AdX. According to the company's external lawyers, the Justice Department is seeking "complete technical separation and divestiture" of AdX. Following a judge's ruling that Google illegally monopolized two advertising technology markets, the Justice Department and Google will begin a two-week hearing next week to discuss whether the company must split off some of its business.

Agricultural giant Corteva's (CTVA.US) "split into two" rumor questioned by Wall Street. Media reports last Friday cited sources revealing that global agricultural platform leader Corteva is evaluating a potential split of its seed and pesticide businesses into two independent companies, with an announcement of its plans expected soon. An analyst from top Wall Street investment firm KeyBanc stated that the potential move to completely separate Corteva's seed and pesticide businesses seems very negative or "confusing for investors."

Webtoon (WBTN.US) shares surge in pre-market trading after Disney (DIS.US) acquires a 2% stake to jointly create a comic platform. Disney announced on Monday that it has reached a partnership with Webtoon Entertainment to jointly develop a digital platform that will feature classic Disney comic content Disney will also acquire a 2% stake in the digital comic platform. As of the time of publication, Webtoon surged over 39% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. August retail sales month-on-month

At 21:15 Beijing time, U.S. August industrial production month-on-month