With the halo effect of Musk, Tesla returns above $400! While there are still fundamental concerns, the long-term market trend needs to be evaluated

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, driven by external optimism regarding CEO Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan and his recent $1 billion stock buyback, Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 3.56% to $410.04 on Monday, marking its first breakthrough above the $400 mark since February this year, with an intraday high of $425.70.

Tesla surged 7.36% last Friday, as the unprecedented $1 trillion compensation plan approved by the company's board demonstrated strong support for Musk, viewing him as a "generational leader" driving Tesla's transformation into an artificial intelligence and robotics company.

The rise on Monday was attributed to Musk's $1 billion purchase of Tesla stock. This marks Musk's first large-scale buyback in the open market in recent years, interpreted by the market as a positive outlook on Tesla's future, boosting investor confidence.

However, despite Tesla's increasingly prominent "automation" image, its electric vehicle business continues to face pressure. Tesla's market share in the U.S. fell to a near eight-year low of just 38% in August, down from a previous high of 80%. Since 2019, its market share has been on a nearly stepwise decline.

This situation may become more severe by the end of the year, as Tesla will lose federal tax credits after the end of this month. Meanwhile, the Model Y facelift has not met high market expectations, the Cybertruck launched in 2023 has been disappointing in terms of sales growth, and competition in the electric vehicle market continues to intensify.

Some analysts believe that as Tesla's core electric vehicle business remains under pressure, the stock price returning above $400 seems to be more based on trust in Musk rather than fundamental support, as the growth rates of the autonomous taxi and robotics businesses are not yet fast enough to fill the gap left by the slowdown in electric vehicle business growth.

On September 2, Tesla released "Master Plan Part IV" on its official social media account. According to the introduction of Master Plan 4.0, Tesla has been accumulating technology over the past nearly two decades through the development of electric vehicles, energy products, and bionic robots. As the influence of artificial intelligence technology continues to grow, the "next chapter" of Tesla's story will be "to create products and services that integrate artificial intelligence into the real world," which will create a "sustainable and prosperous future."

Regarding how to achieve Master Plan 4.0, Musk stated on social media that autonomous driving and the Optimus robot will be the company's most important priorities, and that in the future, about 80% of Tesla's value will come from the Optimus robot.

Although Tesla's Robotaxi launch event in June did not leave a deep impression, the company is moving in the right direction. Since then, Tesla has launched Robotaxi services in Austin, Texas, and the Bay Area in California, and earlier this month officially opened its Robotaxi app to the public, with high download numbers highlighting a significant public interest in experiencing Tesla's RobotaxiElon Musk is still fulfilling his promise to expand Robotaxi services to Nevada, Florida, and Arizona. Although the current scale is still extremely limited and not as fast or effective as Alphabet's Waymo in terms of scaling, Tesla's Robotaxi service is expected to have a price advantage. If Tesla can provide lower-priced Robotaxi services on a large scale, it may capture market share from Waymo. The cost of Tesla's Robotaxi vehicles ranges from $50,000 to $60,000, while Waymo's Robotaxi vehicles cost as much as $200,000, which means Tesla is likely to achieve profitability in Robotaxi services ahead of schedule in the medium to long term.

Another core business that Tesla is optimistic about is the Optimus robot. Musk has promised a production target of 5,000 units this year. The market generally believes this is difficult to achieve, but long-term potential still exists. The expected selling price of Optimus is between $20,000 and $30,000, with a goal of achieving millions of units sold by 2030, especially in applications within the labor market, where it is expected to become a "money printer." However, like Robotaxi, it is still far from being scaled.

Data shows that Tesla's stock price has risen 11% in the past five trading days, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 74.84, indicating an extremely overbought state. Nevertheless, historical experience shows that Tesla's stock often maintains its upward trend even in overbought territory.

In addition, Tesla's valuation is far higher than its peers, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 233.80, significantly exceeding the industry average of 18.06. However, some analysts believe this is not a major issue, as Tesla's valuation has often been difficult to explain using conventional logic, and the company is undergoing a significant transition from an electric vehicle manufacturer to an artificial intelligence and robotics company, leaving the market uncertain about how to price it.

As tax credits are about to expire, consumers rushing to purchase vehicles during this window may drive Tesla's electric vehicle sales to exceed market expectations this month. Additionally, with the market almost fully pricing in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week, if the Fed implements a larger-than-expected rate cut or adopts a more dovish policy guidance, it could further stimulate Tesla's electric vehicle sales and push the stock price higher.

In summary, analysts believe that increasing positions after Tesla's stock price returns above $400 is not wise, but considering the potential positive factors in September are still ongoing, investors may hold their current Tesla stock positions to wait for short-term market movements