Strong demand! The delivery time for the iPhone 17 on the first day of pre-orders is longer than that of the iPhone 16, especially in the Chinese market

The pre-order of the iPhone 17 series shows strong demand signals, with the delivery times of Apple's new flagship models generally extended in multiple global markets compared to the previous generation, a phenomenon particularly evident in the Chinese market.

On September 16, according to news from Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' latest research report stated that despite reports of increased production, data analysis shows that the delivery times for the iPhone 17 series are significantly longer than those for the iPhone 16.

Goldman Sachs noted that based on the pre-order data tracked from Apple.com, the delivery times for all iPhone 17 models globally are longer than those of the previous generation, with the standard and Pro Max models seeing the most significant increase, with delivery times extended by 8 days respectively. Furthermore, the performance in the mainland China market is particularly outstanding, with the average delivery time increasing by 17 days, reaching a waiting period of 27 days.

Previously, analysts reported that the planned production of the iPhone 17 standard, Pro, and Pro Max models increased by 25% year-on-year, while the production of the iPhone Air is three times that of the iPhone 16 Plus. Against the backdrop of increased production, the extended delivery times indicate that pre-order demand is very strong.

The research report pointed out that the strong pre-order demand signals support Goldman Sachs' expectation of an 8% growth in iPhone revenue for Apple's fourth fiscal quarter, and since the channel inventory at the end of Apple's third fiscal quarter was at the lower end of the target range, channel replenishment will further drive performance growth. Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple, with a target price of $266, indicating more than a 10% upside from the current stock price.

Global Delivery Times Significantly Extended

According to Goldman Sachs' tracked pre-order data, the iPhone 17 series performed significantly better on the first day of pre-orders compared to the previous generation. A comparison of global delivery times on Apple.com reveals:

iPhone 17 Standard Version: Delivery time extended by 8 days compared to the iPhone 16 Standard Version.

iPhone 17 Air Version: Delivery time extended by 3 days compared to the iPhone 16 Plus Version.

iPhone 17 Pro Version: Delivery time extended by 3 days compared to the iPhone 16 Pro Version.

iPhone 17 Pro Max Version: Delivery time extended by 8 days compared to the iPhone 16 Pro Max Version.

It is noteworthy that even on the fourth day of pre-orders (September 15), delivery times remained high, further confirming the sustainability of demand, rather than just a one-day surge.

Chinese Market Demand Leads the Way

Goldman Sachs stated that from a regional market perspective, mainland China is undoubtedly the brightest star in this iPhone 17 pre-order Data shows that on the first day of pre-orders, the average delivery time in the Chinese mainland market for the iPhone 16 skyrocketed from 10 days to 27 days, a net increase of 17 days, leading all tracked markets.

Other major markets also performed strongly:

UK: Average delivery time increased by 8 days to 18 days.

India: Average delivery time increased by 3 days to 13 days.

USA: Average delivery time increased by 3 days.

Hong Kong, China: Average delivery time increased by 1 day to 13 days.

Japan is the only region where delivery times have eased, decreasing from 29 days last year to 23 days.

In terms of models, the high-end Pro series remains the top choice for consumers. According to Canalys' sales composition report since the launch of the iPhone 16, the sales proportions of the Pro and Pro Max models reached 33% and 36%, respectively.

The pre-order trend for the iPhone 17 continues this pattern, with the delivery times for the Pro and Pro Max significantly longer than those for the base and Air versions, especially in the Chinese market. As of the fourth day of pre-orders, the delivery times for the base, Pro, and Pro Max versions all reached about 5 weeks.

Strong Demand Amid Increased Production

Research reports indicate that the most exciting aspect for the market is that the extension of delivery times occurred against the backdrop of Apple significantly increasing production capacity.

According to media reports cited by renowned tech analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, compared to the iPhone 16:

The planned production for the iPhone 17 base, Pro, and Pro Max versions has increased by 25% year-on-year.

The production of the iPhone 17 Air version is three times that of the iPhone 16 Plus.

Goldman Sachs stated that the substantial increase on the supply side should have shortened consumer wait times. However, the reality is that delivery times have increased instead. This phenomenon can only point to one conclusion:

The real market demand growth rate for the iPhone 17 has far exceeded the production capacity growth rate of Apple's supply chain.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that this strong pre-order trend supports their expectation of an 8% growth in iPhone revenue for Apple in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, which will also benefit from certain channel restocking, as Apple's channel inventory at the end of the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 was at the lower end of the target range