Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Continuing to increase leverage during negotiations, Trump claims there will be significant interest rate cuts

[Market Dissection]

Under the adjustment of A-shares, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today but closed higher at the end of the day, with a slight increase of 0.22%. This indicates that foreign capital is not pessimistic about the future market.

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on September 16 and 17. On September 14, local time, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he expects the Federal Reserve to announce a "significant interest rate cut" at this week's meeting. Trump stated, "I think there will be a significant rate cut." Does this statement imply a cut of 50 basis points? It cannot be ruled out; otherwise, who would listen to him in the capital market? Foreign capital in the Hong Kong market is likely also banking on this expectation. For example, for CXO-related stocks, a rate cut is a significant positive, with related stocks such as Kanglong Huacheng (03759), Zhaoyan New Drug (06127), and WuXi Biologics (02269) all rising over 7%.

However, there is another major event causing disturbance. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce revealed that, as agreed by both China and the U.S., He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to Spain from September 14 to 17 for talks with the U.S. side. The two sides will discuss U.S. unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and trade issues related to TikTok. Normally, as long as the two sides hold talks, the market tends to react positively, but there is a strong sense of tension before this meeting: on September 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that several Chinese entities would be added to the export control "entity list." The Ministry of Commerce stated that it would take necessary measures and decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation into imported related simulation chips originating from the U.S. starting September 13, 2025. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-discrimination investigation into the U.S. measures related to the integrated circuit sector.

After the market closed today, according to news from the State Administration for Market Regulation on September 15, it was reported that Nvidia had violated the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China and the announcement regarding the anti-monopoly review decision on Nvidia's acquisition of Mellanox Technologies. The market regulation authority decided to conduct further investigations. This series of actions is aimed at increasing negotiation leverage; since they like to play this way, let's return the favor. Previously, they didn't dare to play this way due to lack of strength, but now it's different.

Nvidia holds a significant position in the U.S. stock market, and its influence is quite substantial. However, the focus is only on its acquisition and not on other businesses, but the attitude has been made clear, with Nvidia's pre-market shares dropping about 2%. The capital market is also watching closely; what if everyone is just pretending and they reach an agreement? Regardless, the domestic substitution of semiconductors must continue steadfastly. We remain optimistic about key players like SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347).

Recently, I have repeatedly emphasized that the newly included stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are exceptionally aggressive, and today is no exception. The stock mentioned last Friday, Yaojie Ankang-B (02617), surged 115% today, with short-term funds being extremely enthusiastic. Another stock from the same batch, Nao Dong Jiguang-B (06681), also rose nearly 35%.

Additionally, the parent company of the well-known Thai coconut water brand if, IFBH (06603), has core brands of if and Innococo. If focuses on providing natural and healthy Thai beverages and foods, designing product concepts for various consumer tastes; Innococo is committed to providing a healthy alternative to traditional sports functional drinks. According to a report by ZhiShi Consulting, IFBH ranks first in the coconut water beverage market in mainland China by retail sales. Today, it surged over 10%, while other stocks such as Auntie Song (02589), which is expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, rose over 8%.

The latest energy storage policy released by the National Energy Administration shows that between 2025 and 2027, an additional 100 gigawatts of energy storage capacity will be added, equivalent to 300 gigawatt-hours, which is estimated to drive an investment scale of 250 billion yuan within three years. The new energy storage technology route still mainly relies on lithium-ion battery storage. CATL (03750) has highlighted its leading position; according to SNEResearch data, from January to May 2025, the company's power battery usage accounted for 38.1% of the global market share, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year, maintaining its position as the global leader. In the energy storage field, from January to June 2025, the company's energy storage battery production ranked first in the world. As of last week, CATL's annual production plan reached over 750 GWh, significantly exceeding expectations, and the guidance for 2026 has been revised up to 1,100 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 46%. According to convention, the guidance is slightly higher than production, and production is slightly higher than invoicing, therefore, it is expected that the production for 2026 will be 900-1,000 GWh, with invoicing around 800-900 GWh. Today, it rose over 7%.

Reform Energy (02570) focuses on hydrogen fuel cell systems. According to Frost & Sullivan data, based on the total output power, total sales output power, and total sales of hydrogen fuel cell systems sold in heavy trucks in 2023, Reform Energy ranks first in the Chinese hydrogen fuel cell system market, with market shares of 23.8%, 42.4%, and 29.4%, respectively. After three consecutive days of gains, it rose over 6% today.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the "Supplier Payment Norms Initiative for Complete Vehicle Enterprises," which makes normative proposals for key links in procurement contracts between complete vehicle enterprises and supplier enterprises; several car manufacturers, including SAIC Group and BYD, have expressed their active response to the association's initiative and stated that they will continue to actively implement the requirements of the "Regulations on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises." This policy is also a form of macroeconomic regulation, as car manufacturers continue to expand production capacity or engage in price wars after occupying funds. Standardizing practices will benefit the industry's recovery, with auto parts stocks such as Zhejiang Shibao (01057) and Naisite (01316) rising over 11% and 6%, respectively. Li Auto (02015) has shown a positive rebound from the bottom. According to Nio's official WeChat account, on September 20, NIO Day 2025 will be officially held, during which the all-new ES8 will be officially launched. Nio (09866) rose over 3%.

At 8 PM Beijing time on September 12, the iPhone 17 series officially opened for pre-sale, and Pinduoduo's 10 billion yuan subsidy zone quickly launched the iPhone 17 series new products, becoming the currently known channel with the largest price reduction. The iPhone 17 starts at 5,099 yuan, the iPhone 17 Pro starts at 7,999 yuan, and the iPhone 17 Pro Max starts at 8,999 yuan. Morgan Stanley expects the market demand for the iPhone 17 series to be better than last year's iPhone 16 series, with the best-performing supply chain being Gao Wei Electronics (01415), which has accurately positioned itself in the core track of Apple smartphone camera upgrades and continues to increase its market share At the same time, with forward-looking layouts in emerging fields such as LiDAR and AR/VR, the stock rose nearly 7% today.

The competition in the gaming industry is fierce, and everyone is racing against time. On September 15, Xiaomi Group President Lu Weibing announced on social media that the new Xiaomi 17 series will be launched this month, one month earlier than the previous generation, stating that "this will be the most significant leap in the history of Xiaomi's digital series." The Xiaomi 17 series will globally debut the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 mobile platform. Directly competing with the iPhone 17 series, Xiaomi (01810) rose nearly 2%.

Skyworth Group (00751), mentioned last Friday as a September Zhitong Golden Stock, repeated its performance today, suddenly surging more than 7% in the afternoon, with trading volume exceeding 700 million for two consecutive trading days. This stock is characterized by surprise attacks, having surged for two days in a row, and it is estimated that it will start to consolidate again soon. If there is an opportunity for volume-based arbitrage, it could be quite good.

【Sector Focus】

In recent days, the verbal battle between Luo Yonghao and Xibei regarding "pre-made dishes" has continued to trend. Behind this is actually the issue of how to define and regulate "pre-made dishes." As consumers, we should have the right to know, rather than paying high prices for what is indeed labeled as "pre-made dishes." The exposure of this incident is not a bad thing; it will force policies to be accelerated.

Reports indicate that the draft of the "National Standard for Food Safety of Pre-made Dishes," led by the National Health Commission, has quietly passed expert review and will soon be open for public consultation. At that time, the "identity" of pre-made dishes will have a unified statement, and whether and how restaurants use pre-made dishes will also be included in mandatory information disclosure for the first time. This will be a key point for the pre-made dish industry to transition from "barbaric growth" to the "compliance era." After regulation, the catering industry will welcome healthy development.

Main Hong Kong Stock Varieties: Anjuke Food (02648), Xiaobu Xiaobu (00520).

【Stock Picking】

Nexteer (01316): L3 Industrialization Accelerates with Multiple Orders for Steer-by-Wire from Various Automakers

On September 13, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments jointly issued the "Automotive Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," conditionally approving the production access for L3-level vehicles. The company's revenue in the first half of the year reached $2.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, which is 450 basis points higher than the market.

Comment: The company's improved profitability is attributed to increased production, enhanced efficiency, and good operational performance. Automotive exports have maintained stable growth. The company launched 23 projects in the first quarter of 2025 (of which 19 are new or newly acquired businesses), with new energy vehicle projects accounting for 60.9%, totaling 14 projects, which represent 65.2% of all projects in the Asia-Pacific region. The main highlight of the first quarter was the continued strong orders from Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers.

In addition, the company has also received a large number of column orders from North American clients, enhancing its competitiveness and scale effect in the North American column business. The company is expected to receive more orders related to "steer-by-wire" technology within the year. The annual order target is $5 billion, with the first-quarter order amount reaching $800 million, accounting for 16.0% of the annual target. In terms of new business, the company continues to increase R&D investment. In addition to the RWS business launched last year, the new product electronic mechanical brake (EMB) is also actively under development Recently, the company's stock price has been affected by U.S. tariffs, but overall the impact is manageable. The main effects come from the supply of parts and raw materials from Canada and Mexico. At the same time, for the tariff costs that cannot be exempted, the company is ensuring compensation from customers to offset these expenses. Nexteer will directly benefit from its autonomous driving-related business, high-availability electric power steering systems, as well as advanced steer-by-wire and rear-wheel steering business units.

It is worth noting that Nexteer has received steer-by-wire orders from automakers such as Tesla, Li Auto, and ZEEKR, with deliveries starting in 2026. The company also maintains deep cooperation with XPeng, Xiaomi, and GAC, indicating significant future development potential for steer-by-wire business. The company is accelerating the acquisition of high-level electric power steering, rear-wheel steering, and steer-by-wire orders, and is expected to enter a new round of upward profit cycles through product structure optimization