U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together as Super Central Bank Week Approaches, Tesla Rises in Pre-Market

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 15 (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.12%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.19%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.14%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.53%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.04%, the French CAC 40 index is up 1.22%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.87%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.56%, priced at $63.04 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.42%, priced at $67.27 per barrel.

Market News

"Super Central Bank Week" is coming! Investors focus on the latest interest rate decisions from the U.S., Japan, and the UK. Starting Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, along with central banks from major economies such as the UK, Japan, and Canada, will successively announce their latest interest rate decisions, showing a divergence in monetary policy directions. The market believes that due to signs of weakness in the labor market, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut at this week's meeting. Additionally, due to significant internal disagreements, the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week. In Japan, external expectations suggest that political uncertainty may lead to a continuation of the current fiscal and monetary policies, and the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain interest rates this week, although there remains a possibility of rate hikes later this year.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, Trump exerts pressure again: "There should be a significant rate cut this week!" As the Federal Reserve prepares for a crucial meeting (where the market widely expects its officials to implement the first policy easing in nine months), U.S. President Trump predicts that the Federal Reserve will take "significant rate cut" measures this week. For months, Trump has been pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to push for rate cuts and has publicly urged Powell to resign multiple times. Due to a slowing labor market, persistent inflation, and unprecedented pressure from Trump to lower borrowing costs, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut on September 17.

High inflation cannot stop the pace of rate cuts; the Federal Reserve may "defensively" cut rates by 25 basis points this week. Although the inflation data released last week remains high, the bad news from the job market is even more alarming. Claudia Sam, a former Federal Reserve economist and chief economist at New Century Advisors, pointed out: "The current economic situation is the 'worst-case scenario' for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is not celebrating a rate cut due to 'good news on inflation,' but is being forced to defensively cut rates due to 'bad news on employment.'" "She expects the two-day Federal Reserve meeting this week to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while emphasizing that 'inflation remains too stubborn.' Colin Martin, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, also agrees: 'The inflation rate remains high and is evolving in the wrong direction.'

Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank both raise interest rate cut expectations: The Federal Reserve may cut rates three times in September, October, and December. The latest forecasts from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank indicate that the Federal Reserve may consecutively cut rates by 25 basis points in the remaining three meetings of this year (September, October, December), a significant upgrade from their previous expectations of rate cuts only in September and December. Morgan Stanley further points out that the current market environment allows the Federal Reserve to shift to a neutral policy stance more quickly, and it may even cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the next four meetings starting this week, until January next year, with further cuts expected in April and July 2026. Deutsche Bank believes that although the current forecast does not include further cuts in 2026, if inflation and labor market trends do not align with levels below the neutral interest rate, the risks will lean towards more rate cuts.

Goldman Sachs warns: A slowdown in AI investment could trigger a 20% drop in the S&P 500. While spending in the artificial intelligence sector is currently strong, Goldman Sachs analyst Ryan Hammond mentioned that some analysts expect growth to slow sharply between the end of 2025 and 2026. This concern stems from the extraordinary weight of AI-related companies in the market. According to Slickchart, the largest beneficiary in the AI sector, NVIDIA, has a weight of about 7% in the S&P 500 index. Goldman Sachs warns that if the AI investment boom fades, the S&P 500 index could face widespread drag. The firm does not predict an imminent crash but warns that a slowdown in future AI spending could pose a 15%-20% downside risk to S&P 500 valuations, making the tech-heavy benchmark index particularly vulnerable.

Individual Stock News

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) violates antitrust laws, China's State Administration for Market Regulation decides to conduct further investigation. On September 15, China's State Administration for Market Regulation announced that, following a preliminary investigation, NVIDIA violated the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China and the announcement regarding the antitrust review decision on NVIDIA's acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, and has decided to conduct further investigation. As of the time of publication, NVIDIA's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Musk takes action, Tesla (TSLA.US) surges in pre-market. According to a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on September 15, Musk purchased over 2.5 million shares of Tesla stock on September 12, totaling approximately $1 billion. Musk has always sought more control over Tesla, previously stating that raising his stake to 25% is a balance that 'ensures strategic direction without being too much to be removed.' As of the time of publication, Tesla's stock rose nearly 8% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Avita Medical (RCEL.US) RECELL GO system receives EU CE certification, stock rises in pre-market. Avita Medical's next-generation autologous cell collection device, the RECELL GO system, has received CE certification under the EU Medical Device Regulation (EU MDR) According to reports, the RECELL GO system is an advanced device used for collecting autologous cells to treat burns and skin defects. Compared to traditional skin grafting, RECELL has better advantages, such as improved healing, reduced donor skin usage, less pain, faster wound closure, better aesthetic results, fewer required surgeries, and shorter hospital stays for certain burns. As of the time of writing, Avita Medical rose over 13% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Preparing "ammunition" for global expansion! VinFast (VFS.US) secures a $150 million loan from Barclays Bank. Vietnam's largest automaker VinFast has obtained a $150 million loan from Barclays Bank to boost its competitive expansion in the global electric vehicle market. It is reported that this three-year loan was secured by VinFast Auto's Singapore subsidiary, VinFast Auto Pte., and the related work is nearing completion. A VinFast spokesperson stated that the funds will be used to support the company's working capital needs. As of the time of writing, VinFast rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Monday.

After selling its stake in Altera, Intel (INTC.US) lowers its full-year spending forecast to $16.8 billion. Intel announced on Monday that it has lowered its adjusted operating expense target for 2025 from the previous $17 billion to $16.8 billion, primarily due to the exclusion of its programmable chip business Altera from the company's consolidated financial statements. The struggling chip manufacturer reached an agreement in April of this year to sell 51% of Altera to private equity firm Silver Lake.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. September New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index