Dongfeng and Hello bet big on Robotaxi

In the current wave of "involution" in China's automotive industry, any cross-industry collaboration may signal a reshaping of the industry landscape.

Recently, Dongfeng Motor's Qichen brand has strategically partnered with domestic mobility giant Hello, signing an order agreement for 10,000 Qichen VX6 vehicles. This is not merely a simple marriage between a traditional automaker and an internet mobility platform; it is interpreted by the industry as Dongfeng's attempt to embark on a strategic gamble in the trillion-dollar Robotaxi sector.

For a long time, competition in the Robotaxi field has mainly focused on technology companies represented by Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao," as well as autonomous driving startups like WeRide and Pony.ai. Although these pioneers have made significant progress in technology and operations, they generally face real challenges such as slow commercialization processes, high per-vehicle costs, and difficulty in diluting operational expenses.

The collaboration between Dongfeng and Hello proposes a new model, where the automaker provides large-scale, low-cost vehicle manufacturing capabilities, while the internet platform injects its deep accumulation in user, data, and operational management.

According to Hello CEO Yang Lei, the cooperation with Dongfeng Qichen is progressing rapidly, and Qichen is already on the production line for pre-installed mass production. This model is planned to achieve pre-installed mass production by 2026, covering over 10 cities, with the first international city-scale deployment reaching 10,000 vehicles, and deploying over 50,000 Robotaxi vehicles globally by 2027.

Outsiders are curious whether this strong alliance can, like the shared bicycle model of the past, quickly achieve commercial popularity through massive deployment and refined operations, thereby finding the "golden crossover point" for the scalable profitability of Robotaxi?

Looking back, after experiencing rapid growth, China's passenger car market has gradually entered a stage of stock competition. For a long-established automaker like Dongfeng, finding and nurturing new growth curves has become a strategic necessity for future survival.

In the collaboration, Qichen Automobile provides a mature electric vehicle platform—the Qichen VX6. This "intelligent pure electric SUV" is adapted to the modification needs of Robotaxi, with a spacious interior providing installation space for autonomous driving sensors and ample passenger seating.

On the other hand, Hello Mobility brings rich scenario data and technical research and development capabilities, offering an L4-level Robotaxi solution, HI-D (Halo Intelligence Drive), which adopts an integrated technology architecture of "vehicle-road-cloud," with computing power platforms and sensor solutions meeting automotive-grade standards.

In fact, Hello's entry is not merely a follow-up trend but is based on its years of accumulated core capabilities, attempting to achieve an elevation in its business model. Traditional Robotaxi players are mostly technology-oriented, while Hello possesses a deep-rooted internet operation gene.

The partnership gives the market considerable imaginative space, and their ambition is to initiate the "shared bicycle moment" for Robotaxi. Essentially, this is about rapidly capturing the market through massive deployment and using economies of scale to minimize marginal costs For Robotaxi to replicate this model, the core lies in solving the high single-vehicle costs and operating costs, thereby achieving a self-consistent economic model.

Currently, the commercialization prospects of Robotaxi are becoming increasingly clear, with the most direct evidence being the rapid decline in its operating costs. Research data shows that the operating cost per kilometer for autonomous taxis has quickly dropped from 23 yuan in 2019 to 4.5 yuan in 2023. Industry experts generally predict that by 2026, this cost is expected to further decrease to 2.1 yuan, forming a profitable "golden crossover point."

The rapid decline in costs mainly stems from two aspects: first, the scale dilution and technological advancements in hardware costs such as LiDAR and computing chips; second, the improvement in operational efficiency. This trend indicates that the profitability of Robotaxi is not out of reach, but the premise is that large-scale commercial operations must be achieved.

According to institutional estimates, if leading companies can focus on a single city and deploy autonomous taxis on a large scale, with a fleet size exceeding 1,000 vehicles, they may achieve breakeven ahead of schedule. The order of 10,000 Dongfeng VX6 vehicles signed with Hello is a direct preparation for this "golden crossover point," providing a solid vehicle foundation for fleet-scale deployment.

It can be said that the collaboration between Dongfeng and Hello is attempting to deeply integrate the manufacturing advantages of traditional car companies with the operational advantages of internet platforms, thereby finding a more cost-effective and scalable commercialization path for Robotaxi.

However, from a micro perspective, it still faces multiple challenges such as technological maturity, high costs, fierce competition, and regulatory uncertainties. The success or failure of this gamble will depend on whether Dongfeng and Hello can find a golden balance point in the three-dimensional struggle of technology, cost, and operations, and achieve the commercialization of tens of thousands of vehicles at a faster speed and lower cost than their competitors.

Only when Robotaxi truly achieves large-scale, low-cost, and high-efficiency operations, and gains widespread social recognition, will the explosive moment for Robotaxi truly arrive