CITIC Securities: Apple's new device sales exceed expectations, seize undervalued supply chain investment opportunities

According to Zhitong Finance APP, China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that Apple (AAPL.US) will start pre-orders for its new fall products, including the iPhone, on September 12, with official sales beginning on September 19. Although the fall launch event is generally viewed with skepticism by the market, overall, the inventory of new iPhones exceeding 90 million is better than last year, and the sales trend remains positive. The high cost-performance ratio of the i17 is expected to drive sales beyond expectations, while the demand for the 17 Pro is stable and improving. The demand for the Air model still needs to be observed further after its global release in regions like China. The new iPhone models, combined with more comprehensive AI features in the future, are expected to further boost sales. Additionally, Apple's three-year hardware innovation acceleration cycle has begun, and its innovations in edge AI software and ecosystem will be worth noting next year. It is recommended to seize the undervalued Apple supply chain.

Key points from China Merchants Securities are as follows:

iPhone 17: The pre-order volume (before pre-sale) for the i17 on the JD platform exceeds 2 million, nearly 10 times that of the i16; currently, Apple's official website shows that the delivery time for all configurations of the i17 in China is 3-4 weeks, and for most configurations in the U.S., it is 2-3 weeks, which is better than the same period last year by about 1-2 weeks. The i17 512G is out of stock and cannot be reserved on the JD platform. The situation for the i17 is better than last year, mainly due to the upgrade to a 120Hz refresh rate, ultra-wide angle and front camera, fast charging for battery life, while also reducing the price by $100, significantly improving cost-performance and effectively covering the mid-range price segment, forming strong competition.

iPhone 17 Pro: Currently, the delivery time for the i17 Pro on the official website in China is 3-4 weeks, while in the U.S., it is 2-3 weeks except for the deep blue color. The Pro Max has a delivery time of 3-4 weeks in both China and the U.S., with the Pro models being better than the same period last year by 1-2 weeks, and the PM model in China being better than last year by 2-3 weeks. Overall, the waiting time for the Pro series remains long, consistent with past trends. This time, the 17 Pro features significant design changes and highlights in heat dissipation, telephoto, and fast charging, which are expected to drive stable demand for the Pro models.

iPhone Air: The Air model has not yet been released in China, while in the U.S., the delivery time for the Air in sky blue, light gold, and space black is about 1 week, and for cloud white, it is 2-3 weeks. Highlights of this Air model include an ultra-thin & titanium metal appearance, self-developed modem & wireless connection chip, eSIM, and dual video recording with front and rear cameras. The waiting time for the Air model in the U.S. is shorter than that of the 17 series, and it is recommended to further observe the sales trend of the Air after it receives global sales approval in regions like China.

Airpods/Watch: Airpods Pro 3 has a waiting time of 1 week in China and 2-3 weeks in the U.S.; Watch S11 has a waiting time of 1 week in both China and the U.S., while Watch Ultra 3 has a waiting time of 2 weeks for most configurations in China and 2-3 weeks in the U.S. Overall, the sales trend meets expectations, and Airpods Pro 3's AI translation, heart rate measurement, and Watch's hypertension reminders, battery life improvements, 5G, and satellite communication features remain noteworthy Target Aspect: Continue to prioritize Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) and GoerTek (01415), which will fully benefit from Apple's terminal AI innovations; remain optimistic about Pegatron (002938.SZ), Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ), BYD Electronics (00285), Crystal Optoelectronics (002273.SZ), Lante Optics (688127.SH), AAC Technologies (02018), Sunny Optical (02382), Changying Precision (300115.SZ), Han's Laser (002008.SZ), and pay attention to Lingyi iTech (002600.SZ), GoerTek (002241.SZ), Jingyan Technology (300709.SZ), Tonglian Precision (688210.SH), Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH), Plutotech (688333.SH), Huashu High-Tech (688433.SH), Hengmingda (002947.SZ), Xinwangda (300207.SZ), Shihua Technology (688093.SH), Fuliwang (688678.SH), Huaxun Electronics (601231.SH), and Desay Battery (000049.SZ).

Risk Warning

Increased macroeconomic volatility, downstream consumer demand not meeting expectations, intensified competition in the electronics industry, geopolitical and exchange rate risks