Next week's heavy schedule: The day to decide on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is coming

September 15 - September 21 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times are in Beijing time:

Key focus for next week: The central banks of the US, Japan, the UK, and Canada will announce interest rate decisions. China will release a series of economic data for August, including retail sales, industrial added value, and housing prices in 70 cities. China and the US will hold talks in Spain. Trump is expected to visit the UK, accompanied by executives from companies such as OpenAI and NVIDIA. Meta is expected to release its first consumer-grade smart glasses.

In addition, the central banks of Brazil, South Africa, and Norway will also announce their latest policy interest rates. The heads of the US and Japanese central banks will hold a monetary policy press conference after the interest rate decisions. Employment data such as US retail sales and initial jobless claims will be released. Meanwhile, the State Council Information Office of China will hold a press conference on the national economic operation. At the same time, China will implement a visa-free policy for ordinary passport holders from Russia from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026.

Economic Indicators

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

On September 18, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is set to be a major event, with a rate cut or even an aggressive 50 basis point cut likely. Recently released August CPI data from the US shows that inflation remains moderate overall. Although the year-on-year CPI for August slightly rebounded to 2.9%, the core CPI remained in line with expectations both year-on-year and month-on-month, without the uncontrolled inflation concerns previously feared due to tariff measures.

At the same time, recently released preliminary annual benchmark revisions of non-farm payrolls show that as of March, non-farm employment was revised down by 910,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 682,000, marking the largest downward revision since 2000. This data not only exacerbates concerns about the health of the US economy but also raises questions about the credibility of labor statistics. Signs of weakness in non-farm employment undoubtedly provide new reasons for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts.

Wallstreetcn reported that Citigroup analysts believe the details of this inflation report are "encouraging" for Federal Reserve officials preparing to implement a series of rate cuts. The bank expects that this moderate inflation report, combined with signals of a weak labor market, clears the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle.

The bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a total of 125 basis points over the next five FOMC meetings, with the policy rate potentially falling below 3%. As a result, traders have significantly increased their bets on a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 17.

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

On September 19, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, coinciding with a period of high uncertainty in Japanese politics. On September 7, [Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suddenly announced his resignation](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755096?Keyword = (石破茂), the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to hold a presidential election from late September to early October, and the new Prime Minister is likely to take office in October. During this political transition period, intra-party factional struggles are intensifying, which may affect expectations for fiscal and monetary policy.

Currently, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to remain on hold in September, mainly due to political uncertainty temporarily suppressing the urgency for monetary policy normalization.

Although Japan's CPI in August still reached 2.7% year-on-year, underlying inflationary pressures persist, and expectations for fiscal expansion are heating up. If Sanae Takaichi is elected, it may promote more vigorous stimulus, but the central bank may choose to wait and see before assessing the new government's policy intentions. Most analysts still believe that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in the fourth quarter, especially at the October meeting, when the path of U.S. monetary policy and Japan's domestic political situation will become clearer.

• Bank of England Policy Rate

On September 18, the Bank of England will announce its latest policy rate decision. Given the recent unexpected rebound in inflation data to an 18-month high, and the serious divisions within the central bank during the August meeting, the market generally expects this meeting to maintain the rate at 4%.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has publicly expressed skepticism about another rate cut this year, believing that "inflation risks have risen." The expectation of maintaining the rate at this meeting is primarily based on two core factors.

First is stubborn inflation. The UK's CPI year-on-year growth rate rose to 3.8% in July, reaching an 18-month high, with service sector inflation also exceeding the central bank's expectations. Second is the profound divisions within the central bank. Governor Bailey has recently publicly expressed skepticism about the prospects for a rate cut in November and acknowledged the market's significant downward adjustment of expectations for a rate cut this year.

• Bank of Canada Policy Rate

The Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision on September 17, and the market generally expects it to cut rates by 25 basis points. The country's recent employment data has significantly worsened—August's unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, with over 100,000 jobs lost for two consecutive months, increasing the pressure on the central bank to take action. Although inflation data to be released on September 16 remains uncertain, most institutions believe that economic weakness has made a rate cut inevitable, and if easing is initiated, the Canadian dollar may face short-term pressure.

• China's August Economic Data: Retail Sales, Industrial Value Added, Housing Prices in 70 Cities, National Real Estate Development Investment, etc.

China's heavy economic data will be released intensively, covering national real estate development investment from January to August, retail sales of consumer goods in August, industrial value added above designated size in August, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, etc.

CICC expects that the growth rate of August economic data may mostly slow down. Among them, the weakening support from trade-in programs may drag down the growth rate of total retail sales. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed investment may continue to decline, with the growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all showing a decline; the real estate market remains weak. Although the base from the same period last year was relatively low and some cities have optimized housing market policies, the year-on-year decline in sales area of new and second-hand houses in August may narrow or turn positive, but housing prices continue to decline month-on-month. Industrial production is expected to improve, with the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value added in August expected to rise slightly to 6.0%However, Huachuang Securities believes that the economic momentum in August may have improved compared to July. The growth rate of retail sales may rise to 4.1%. The third batch of national subsidy funds issued in late July will have a greater impact on commodity retail in August. It is expected that the growth rate of retail sales in August will improve compared to July. Additionally, data from the Passenger Car Association shows that retail sales of passenger cars increased by 3% year-on-year in August, narrowing compared to July, with the high base effect from last year becoming apparent, and automotive consumption may maintain low growth. The industrial growth rate may rise to 6.1%. PMI data shows that the production sub-index rebounded by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month in August, which is the main force driving the rebound in PMI, indicating an improvement in production momentum. The disturbance to demand from extreme weather has weakened, leading to corresponding improvements in production.

From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment may be around 1.5%. (1) From January to August, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate excluding power infrastructure investment may be around 2.7%; (2) From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of real estate investment may be around -12.5%; (3) From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment may be around 5.6%.

Financial Events

• Trump's State Visit to the UK, accompanied by Jensen Huang and others

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump will make a state visit to the UK from September 17 to 19. This is Trump's second state visit to the UK as President of the United States. He previously visited the UK in 2019 and was received by then-Queen Elizabeth II. The media believes this visit is part of the Starmer government's efforts to maintain communication with the Trump administration and mitigate the adverse effects of some Trump administration policies on the UK.

According to media reports citing informed sources, executives from OpenAI and NVIDIA will accompany Trump to the UK. During Trump's visit, it is expected that several American companies across various industries will announce investments worth billions of dollars in the UK.

Wall Street View wrote that Jensen Huang is one of several American business leaders expected to accompany him, along with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Blackstone CEO Steven Schwarzman, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Reports indicate that Apple CEO Tim Cook has also received an invitation.

• China and the U.S. hold talks in Spain

The Ministry of Commerce of China stated that, as agreed by both parties, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to Spain from September 14 to 17 for talks with the U.S. side. The two sides will discuss U.S. unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and economic and trade issues such as TikTok.

• Meta releases its first consumer-grade smart glasses

On September 18, Meta will hold the Connect conference, where the market expects the release of Meta's first consumer-grade smart glasses. At the same time, CEO Mark Zuckerberg will deliver a keynote speech on "AI Smart Glasses."Haitong Securities expects the glasses to be priced from $800. The design of the glasses' front frame is very similar to Ray-Ban Meta, with the core display function being a monocular heads-up display focused on presenting "glanceable" information, including time, weather, notifications, photo previews, translations, and more. Meta will also showcase a pairing solution of an electromyography wristband with AR glasses, filling the gap in voice interaction scenarios.

Analysts point out that equally important as the product itself is that Meta is expected to simultaneously release a new software development kit (SDK), which is a key step in building its wearable device ecosystem. By attracting developers to build applications, Meta aims to pave the way for truly functional AR glasses in the future. CITIC Securities believes that although the monetization of AR glasses applications and user accumulation will still require a long process, the current focus is mainly on thematic investment opportunities, but Meta's release will greatly boost market attention. Investors' focus will be on the event's catalytic effect on the entire AR industry and the driving effect on core upstream supply chain technologies such as waveguides and MicroLED.

• The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the national economic operation

The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10:00 AM on September 15, where Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, Chief Economist, and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economy, will introduce the national economic operation situation for August 2025 and answer questions from reporters.

• China will implement a visa-free policy for ordinary passport holders from Russia

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026, a visa-free policy will be implemented for ordinary passport holders from Russia. Russian ordinary passport holders can enter China for business, tourism, family visits, exchanges, and transit for up to 30 days without a visa.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Russian President Putin stated that China's visa exemption for Russian citizens is a very friendly gesture, and Russia will respond reciprocally. This visa-free policy is of significant importance, as it will increase the number of Russian citizens traveling to China and promote business development, trade exchanges, and personnel interactions.

• Cambricon holds a 2025 semi-annual performance briefing

Cambricon announced that the company plans to hold a 2025 semi-annual performance briefing on September 18, 2025, from 16:00 to 17:00, to communicate on issues of concern to investors. The meeting will be held in an online text interaction format at the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Shanghai Roadshow Center. Investors can send questions to the company's investor relations email or ask questions in the pre-collection section on the Shanghai Roadshow Center website before 16:00 on September 17. Participants will include Chairman and General Manager Chen Tianshi, Director, Deputy General Manager, Financial Officer, Board Secretary Ye Haoyin, and Independent Director Wang Xiuli