Rapidly becoming a "red ocean," "scarcity premium" disappears, "digital currency treasury companies" enter "involution mode"

Cryptocurrency treasury companies are entering a fiercely competitive "player-to-player" phase, and the scarcity premium once enjoyed by early adopters has dissipated. The Coinbase research team stated that the era of easy profits and guaranteed net asset value premiums is over, and success will increasingly depend on execution, differentiated strategies, and timing.

According to Coinbase's latest research report, digital asset treasury companies have reached a critical turning point and are no longer in the early adoption phase. Early movers like MicroStrategy previously enjoyed significant premiums relative to net asset value, but increased competition, execution risks, and regulatory constraints have led to a compression of these premiums.

Currently, Bitcoin-specific digital asset treasuries hold over 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 5% of the circulating supply of the token. Ethereum-specific treasuries hold approximately 4 million Ethereums, valued at $2.13 billion, accounting for over 4% of the circulating supply, with 154 publicly listed companies in the U.S. raising approximately $9.84 billion for cryptocurrency purchases by 2025.

The Coinbase research team expects that entering the fourth quarter, the crypto market will maintain a constructive outlook, with strong liquidity, a favorable macro environment, and positive regulatory developments continuing to provide support. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice on September 17 and October 29, which will release idle cash and drive the market up.

Digital Asset Treasury Market Enters Mature Competitive Stage

The phenomenon of digital asset treasuries has reached a critical turning point. Coinbase's research director David Duong and researcher Colin Basco pointed out in a report released on Wednesday that the market has entered a "player-to-player" competitive stage, and merely replicating the MicroStrategy playbook is no longer sufficient to ensure success.

The scarcity premium enjoyed by early adopters has dissipated. Pioneers like MicroStrategy previously enjoyed significant premiums relative to net asset value, but as competition intensifies, execution risks increase, and regulatory constraints tighten, the net asset value multiples have compressed.

At this stage, the success of treasury companies will increasingly depend on execution, differentiation, and timing, rather than simply mimicking existing strategies. Analysts believe that only the most disciplined and strategically positioned players can thrive in this competitive environment.

Rapid Market Expansion Triggers Regulatory Attention

The market size of digital asset treasuries is rapidly expanding. Bitcoin-specific treasuries now hold over 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 5% of the circulating supply. Ethereum-specific treasuries hold approximately 4 million Ethereums, valued at $2.13 billion, accounting for over 4% of the total circulating supply.

According to media reports in August, 154 publicly listed companies in the U.S. raised approximately $9.84 billion for cryptocurrency purchases by 2025, a significant increase compared to the $3.36 billion raised by 10 companies earlier this year. Capital commitments for other tokens are also on the rise, with Forward Industries recently raising $16.5 million to fund a SOL-based digital asset treasury supported by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital This rapid growth has attracted more scrutiny from regulators. Recent reports indicate that Nasdaq is strengthening its oversight of digital asset treasury, requiring shareholder approval for certain transactions and advocating for enhanced disclosures. However, Nasdaq clarified that it has not yet issued any formal announcements regarding new rules for digital asset treasuries.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Support Crypto Market Outlook, "September Effect" No Longer Reliable

The Coinbase research team maintains a constructive outlook for the crypto market in the fourth quarter, expecting strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and positive regulatory developments to continue providing support.

The team anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice on September 17 and October 29, as signs of weakness emerge in the U.S. labor market. The rate cut expectations will release a significant portion of the $7.4 trillion in money market funds, providing liquidity support for risk assets.

However, a significant change in the current inflation trajectory could pose risks to the outlook, such as rising energy prices. OPEC recently agreed to increase oil production again, while oil demand shows signs of a global slowdown. The research team believes that prices are unlikely to exceed the threshold that would push the economy into stagnation.

The Coinbase research team stated that investors should not rely on the "September Effect" as a trading indicator. Bitcoin has fallen in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022, leaving investors with the impression that this month "is often a bad time to hold risk assets."

However, trading based on this assumption would lead to misjudgments in both 2023 and 2024. Research shows that the month factor is not a statistically reliable predictor of Bitcoin's monthly logarithmic returns. The research team believes that monthly seasonality is not particularly useful as a trading signal for Bitcoin.

Despite facing intensified competition, the research team expects the crypto market to continue benefiting from the unprecedented capital flowing into these tools, achieving excess returns