Goldman Sachs: The stock price fluctuations of POP MART are due to the volume strategy, and demand has not weakened. The IP incubation of Miniso is progressing smoothly, and the valuation remains attractive

According to the Wind Trading Platform, Goldman Sachs' latest tracking report on China's IP retail and toy industry shows a significant strategic differentiation in the industry in August, reflecting an important turning point from high-frequency data-driven approaches back to fundamentals.

Specifically, Goldman Sachs stated that POP MART experienced a price premium correction but achieved monetization improvement by increasing product supply; Blokus accelerated its product release pace; Miniso's proprietary IP performed well, with valuation recovering to a high double-digit price-to-earnings ratio for 2025.

Goldman Sachs also adjusted its target prices: the target price for POP MART is HKD 350, Miniso raised to USD 29/HKD 56 (based on a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-26), and Blokus lowered to HKD 93 (based on a 22 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-26).

Goldman Sachs adjusted target prices based on the growth prospects of different companies, with Miniso's increase reflecting improved growth prospects, rising from a 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 to a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-26. The decrease for Blokus is due to the need to wait for more visibility on new product lines, which will be the main support for future revenue growth.

POP MART: Strategic Adjustments Behind Price Premium Correction

In August, POP MART's stock price experienced fluctuations, mainly reflecting market concerns about the slowdown in high-frequency data, particularly changes in secondary market prices. The Labubu Big Into Energy series had limited premiums, and the premium for the mini Labubu at launch was also lower than previous series.

Key data shows a strategic shift:

The first batch of mini Labubu reached approximately 1 million units, significantly higher than previous series, supporting revenue growth. In terms of secondary market prices, the Macaron/Have a Seat series had premiums of 40%-60%/single digits to 30%, while the Big into Energy series generally had single-digit premiums. Most SKUs of mini Labubu had premiums of single digits to 65% (half of the SKUs below 25%).

Goldman Sachs believes that this correction is more related to the company's increased monetization, and strong revenue will continue to support valuations.

Blokus: Accelerated Product Releases, New Product Lines are Key

In August, Blokus accelerated its new product releases, launching over 50 SKUs, more than double that of July. The new products mainly focus on existing IPs, including the Ultraman 15th Galaxy series and the Transformers 4th RMB 9.9 series.

Among them, the adult product line showed improvement, with sales of the adult product line in the Tmall flagship store increasing month-on-month compared to July, and new product releases supporting sales growth for Hatsune Miku and Pokémon. The newly launched RMB 99 Naruto product sold approximately 1,500 units in August.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the new product lines (including female and adult product lines) will play an important role in accelerating growth targets in the second half of the year, but channel penetration and gaining mind share among new customer groups are worth noting

Miniso: Successful Proprietary IP, Valuation Recovery

After Miniso's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, its valuation has recovered to a high double-digit price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, but its relative growth prospects are still not considered expensive. The new initiatives for proprietary IP have become the focus of attention for management and investors.

Highlights of the IP business: The successful launch of the Yoyo product, with management expecting sales to reach RMB 40 million this year. The subsequently launched Kumaru blind box product has also received positive market feedback. Miniso Park in Guangzhou recorded RMB 16 million in revenue in August, while Miniso Park in Shanghai also recorded RMB 16 million in August.

Overseas Market: Mixed Data, Positive Consumption Trends

From the overseas market perspective, labor data in the U.S. is weak and below expectations, but companies generally report that consumer demand remains resilient. Goldman Sachs' U.S. team points out that consumers are increasingly prioritizing novelty and fashion, willing to pay full price for essential goods, which is a positive signal for IP-related companies.

Specific performance data: Miniso's U.S. credit card sales grew by 97%, slightly slowing from 98% in Q2. Top Toy opened its first store in Japan at Sunshine City in Tokyo, with first-day sales reaching 11 million yen (approximately RMB 500,000). POP MART's Google index and secondary market prices in the U.S. continue to show signs of slowing