CITIC Securities: Assigns Alibaba-W a "Buy" rating, expects flash sales business to contribute stable profits of up to 18.3 billion yuan

Zhitong
2025.09.12 02:16
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CITIC Securities released a research report stating a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W, considering Alibaba's prominent financial advantages and predicting a dual oligopoly competition pattern in the medium term. Relying on a dual-mode development to cover all categories of business, the firm expects to contribute an incremental GMV of 1 trillion from FY2026 to FY2028. The company emphasizes optimizing efficiency after scaling up, with a clear trend of improving UE. The firm estimates that the steady-state profit contribution from flash purchase business could reach 18.3 billion yuan, and in an optimistic valuation scenario, based on forward valuation discounting, the potential market value increase in 2026 could be nearly 200 billion yuan. The report mentions that since February 2025, the three major platforms have upgraded their layouts, entering the instant retail track through food delivery. As a high-frequency essential traffic entry point, the food delivery business can effectively drive local life and e-commerce operations, helping the platform seize the competitive high ground in future retail formats. Alibaba's "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational structure adjustments and comprehensive integration of member rights. After the launch of flash purchase, the effects of user acquisition and retention have been significant, with category supply relying on the advantages of e-commerce merchants, forming differentiated competition in clothing, electronics, and beauty and personal care sectors, while rider capacity is rapidly replenished

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities has released a research report giving Alibaba-W (09988) a "Buy" rating. Considering Alibaba's significant financial advantages, it is believed that a dual oligopoly competition pattern is expected to form in the medium term. Relying on a dual-mode development of a full-category business, the firm anticipates that FY2026-FY2028 could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV. The company emphasizes optimizing efficiency after scaling up, and with a clear trend of improving user experience (UE), the firm expects that the steady-state profit contribution from flash purchase business could reach 18.3 billion yuan. In an optimistic valuation scenario, based on forward valuation discounting, the potential market value increase space in 2026 could be nearly 200 billion yuan.

The report states that since February 2025, the three major platforms have upgraded their layouts, entering the instant retail track through food delivery. As a high-frequency essential traffic entry point, the food delivery business can effectively drive local life and e-commerce businesses, helping the platform seize the competitive high ground in future retail formats. Alibaba's "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational structure adjustments and comprehensive integration of member rights. After the launch of flash purchase, the effects of user acquisition and retention have been significant, with category supply relying on the advantages of e-commerce merchants, forming differentiated competition in the fields of clothing, electronics, and beauty and personal care, while the delivery capacity is rapidly replenished

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