Apple Services Revenue Trajectory Signals Softness With Weaker App Store Downloads: Analyst

Benzinga
2025.09.11 17:44
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Apple's App Store revenue and downloads showed slower growth in August, with year-over-year revenue growth easing to 11.2% and downloads rising by only 2.2%. JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an Overweight rating on Apple, noting that the revenue growth is below historical trends and slightly under Apple’s guidance for fiscal Q4 2025 Services growth of about 13% Y/Y. Despite positive growth, the August figures indicate a modest shortfall, suggesting a softer trajectory for Apple's Services segment in the upcoming quarter. Apple shares rose 1.25% to $229.74.

Sensor Tower data showed that Apple’s AAPL App Store revenue and downloads grew in August, but slower than historical trends.

Year-over-year revenue growth eased to 11.2% and downloads rose 2.2%, signaling a softer trajectory for Apple’s Services segment.

JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an Overweight rating on Apple.

Chatterjee said Apple’s App Store revenue showed softer-than-usual momentum in August, indicating a modest deceleration in growth relative to historical seasonal trends.

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According to Sensor Tower data cited by Chatterjee, App Store revenue rose just 0.6% month-over-month in August, below the historical July-to-August average of +1.9%.

On a year-over-year basis, revenue growth slowed to +11.2% in August, compared with +12.8% in July.

The analyst noted that this trend sits slightly under Apple management’s guidance for fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 Services growth of about +13% Y/Y, with current quarter-to-date data implying closer to ~12% Y/Y growth.

App Store downloads also trailed seasonal norms, Chatterjee noted. Downloads were flat month-over-month in August, versus a +7.1% increase in July and an average historical sequential change of +0.8% for that period.

Year-over-year, downloads increased by +2.2% in August, compared with +2.5% in July.

Chatterjee highlighted that while growth remains positive, the August figures point to a modest shortfall versus expectations, reinforcing a slightly softer trajectory for Apple’s Services segment in the September quarter.

AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were up 1.25% at $229.74 at the time of publication Thursday.

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