The number of initial jobless claims in the United States hits a nearly four-year high, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States surged to its highest level in nearly four years last week, reaching 263,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 235,000. This phenomenon indicates that layoffs may be intensifying and hiring activity is significantly slowing down. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims also rose to 240,500, marking the highest level since June. The number of claims in Texas spiked by 15,304, becoming a major driving factor. Before this data was released, the number of new jobs added in August was only 22,000, reflecting a weak labor market
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States surged to its highest level in nearly four years. This phenomenon indicates that layoffs may be intensifying amid a significant slowdown in hiring activities.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that for the week ending September 6, initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, marking the highest level since October 2021. The median expectation among economists was 235,000.
Before this data release, the monthly employment report published on September 5 indicated that the U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, continuing the trend of significantly slowed job growth in recent times. Uncertainty surrounding Trump's economic policies has also made employers more cautious about hiring in 2025. A survey released by the New York Fed on Monday showed that consumer confidence in finding jobs fell to its lowest level since June 2013 in August.
Weekly initial jobless claims data typically fluctuates significantly during holiday periods, and this week's data coincided with the Labor Day weekend. As an important indicator for smoothing short-term fluctuations, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 240,500, the highest level since June.
The unusual increase in Texas pushed up the overall data, with the state seeing an unadjusted increase of 15,304 in initial jobless claims. Michigan ranked second with an increase of 2,980, while most states saw a decline in claims.
Additionally, for the week ending August 30, the number of continuing jobless claims (reflecting the current number of people receiving unemployment benefits) remained at 1.94 million, unchanged from the previous week.
Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger stated, "The surge in initial jobless claims in the first week of September was primarily driven by Texas, while most states actually saw a declining trend in claims. Although the weakness in the labor market is becoming increasingly evident, any deterioration in the labor market is worth noting. However, if initial jobless claims show a broader increase, the situation would be more concerning."
The data released this Thursday is the last key report reflecting the state of the U.S. labor market available to the market before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 16-17. This year, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged to guard against inflation risks; however, with growing concerns about employment issues, there is widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts.
Another report released on the same day showed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% in August, consistent with economists' median expectations
