Musk's "Starlink" is "taking over" the internet in emerging markets

With technological breakthroughs, user scale, and disruptive cost advantages, Musk's "Starlink" business is becoming a formidable disruptive force in emerging markets.

According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, JPMorgan Chase pointed out in a research report released on September 10 that the global user count of Starlink has grown from 5 million in April 2025 to over 6 million, covering 134 countries. More importantly, its parent company SpaceX is reported to have acquired wireless and mobile satellite service spectrum, paving the way for its "Direct to Cell" (DTC) service, aimed at "ending global mobile network dead zones."

This series of moves directly impacts the existing market landscape. JPMorgan Chase warns that for emerging market telecom companies that rely on high tariffs, hold traditional regional infrastructure, have satellite businesses, or are highly leveraged, their revenues are facing real risks.

The report emphasizes that with the technological iterations of low Earth orbit satellite internet providers like Starlink, its network capacity is expected to grow 100 times in the future, while reusable rocket technology could drive down marginal bandwidth costs by up to 90%. The reduction in costs and innovation in services are transforming satellite internet from an expensive supplementary option to an increasingly competitive mainstream choice.

Accelerated Expansion: New Services and Spectrum Acquisition

Starlink's expansion pace has not slowed down.

The continuous expansion of user scale is just one part; the more disruptive change comes from the expansion of its service capabilities. The report shows that Starlink has obtained 50MHz of wireless and mobile satellite service spectrum, and SpaceX stated that this will "advance the mission to eliminate global mobile communication blind spots."

A key catalyst is the "Direct to Cell" (DTC) technology. This emerging technology allows standard smartphones to connect directly to satellites, providing text, voice, and data services. Since 2024, Starlink has been offering DTC messaging services, and recent reports indicate that SpaceX's spectrum acquisition will enable it to develop the next generation of DTC satellites, significantly enhancing coverage and performance.

Currently, Starlink has deployed approximately 8,400 low Earth orbit satellites and plans to expand its constellation to about 42,000. It has also partnered with several telecom operators worldwide to jointly promote DTC services, including T-Mobile in the United States, Optus in Australia, Rogers in Canada, KDDI in Japan, and Kyivstar in Ukraine.

For example, T-Mobile has launched a $10 per month "T-Satellite" subscription service, while Japan's KDDI offers compatible messaging services to its users for free. These partnerships not only open up new revenue streams for Starlink but also greatly promote the adoption of its services.

Technological Advances Drive Significant Cost Reductions

At the core of Starlink's disruptive potential is its reshaping of costs and capacity.

JPMorgan Chase's analysis shows that the satellite internet industry is on the brink of a technological revolution, expected to achieve a hundredfold increase in capacity and a ninety percent reduction in costs. In terms of capacity, in addition to Starlink's massive constellation plan, Amazon's Kuiper project (which plans to launch over 3,200 satellites) and satellite programs from other countries are collectively driving an explosive growth in the number of global low Earth orbit satellites.

At the same time, the capacity of the new generation of satellite technology (such as Starlink V2 Mini satellites) is already four times that of previous generations, further amplifying the total network capacity.

In terms of cost, estimates from JP Morgan indicate that with the maturity of fully reusable rockets like "Starship," the cost per launch is expected to drop from the current approximately $62 million for "Falcon 9" to below $10 million.

Combining the higher bandwidth capabilities of the next-generation satellites, the report estimates that in an ideal scenario, the marginal cost reduction per unit of bandwidth could reach 90% or even 97%.

Emerging Market Telecom Operators Face Severe Challenges

Currently, price remains the main barrier to Starlink's adoption in emerging markets. For example, in the Philippines, Starlink's residential package has a monthly fee of about $67, which is significantly higher than the local operator PLDT's comparable fiber broadband (FBB) service at about $28. Additionally, users must also pay a hefty price for terminal hardware.

The rise of Starlink poses a structural challenge to traditional telecom operators in emerging markets.

In many Southeast Asian countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, the household penetration rate of fixed broadband is only 25% and 16%, respectively, far below that of developed markets. Due to the high costs of laying fiber networks in sparsely populated suburban and rural areas, traditional telecom operators face economic viability bottlenecks in their expansion, leaving a significant market gap for satellite service providers like Starlink.

The report shows that Starlink has now launched more affordable "Residential Lite" packages in markets like Malaysia and Indonesia, with slightly lower speeds than the standard version but significantly reduced prices; in Malaysia, the price of this package is now comparable to local fiber broadband.

At the same time, Starlink has also introduced smaller and cheaper Starlink Mini antenna hardware. Additionally, in some regions, Starlink is attracting users by waiving hardware fees through a 12-month contract.

JP Morgan believes that as bandwidth costs continue to decline, Starlink has the ability to pass on the savings to consumers. The report estimates that if the monthly fee in the Philippines is reduced by 60%, it would be on par with the prices of existing local operators