Understanding the Market | Non-ferrous Stocks Rise Against the Trend, Base Metals Sector Sees Quarter-on-Quarter Growth in Q2, Macroeconomic Factors Expected to Drive Continued Upswing in Non-ferrous Metals

Zhitong
2025.09.11 02:15
portai
I'm PortAI, I can summarize articles.

Non-ferrous stocks rose against the trend, with CHINAHONGQIAO up 4.96%, JIANGXI COPPER up 4.43%, CHALCO up 3.49%, and CMOC up 3.14%. Changjiang Securities expects that the net profit of the base metals sector will grow by 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and by 15% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. The growth is attributed to the recovery of manufacturing in China and the United States, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. CITIC Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, global copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, and the recovery of the Chinese economy along with the drive from the new energy sector will boost the demand for copper and aluminum

According to Zhitong Finance APP, non-ferrous stocks rose against the trend. As of the time of writing, China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 4.96% to HKD 25.4; Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose by 4.43% to HKD 25.46; Aluminum Corporation of China (02600) rose by 3.49% to HKD 7.11; and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 3.14% to HKD 12.49.

Changjiang Securities released a research report stating that the net profit of the base metals sector is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, the base metals sector is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 37.644 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%. The year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 is attributed to the upward phase resonance of the manufacturing sectors in China and the U.S., as well as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have raised the price center of base metal commodities. The quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter of 2025 is mainly due to the gradual easing of tariff transactions, combined with strong industrial performances driven by policies such as wind and solar installations, trade-in programs, and export rushes, leading to a rebound in commodity prices; meanwhile, the prices of raw materials like alumina and thermal coal have declined, improving profitability in the electrolytic aluminum smelting segment.

CITIC Construction Investment stated that the most critical data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which significantly underperformed expectations. The interest rate meeting on September 16-17 is expected to announce an interest rate cut with little suspense, and the probability of three rate cuts within the year is close to 80%. The firm pointed out that industrial metal prices are determined by both "financial attributes" and "commodity attributes." From a financial perspective, the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle; from a commodity perspective, global copper and aluminum inventories are at relatively low levels, and the recovery of the Chinese economy is promising. Coupled with the boost from the new energy sector, the demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve

Source: Zhitong The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.