Apple's moderate price increase hides secrets; foldable screens and anniversary editions may push iPhone into a "new normal" of $2,000

According to Zhitong Finance APP, when Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) launched the iPhone X in 2017, it not only introduced facial recognition technology and a sleek full-screen design but also created a new category in the smartphone market—the $1,000 tier. A new round of price tier transitions may soon begin, and Apple is also considering price increases. CEO Tim Cook previously stated that iPhone users are ready to pay for high-end models.

In the eight years since, this price anchor point has hardly changed significantly. Despite facing inflationary pressures and ongoing technological upgrades, the starting price of the iPhone 17 Pro is only $1,099, just a $100 increase from the iPhone X; the entry-level iPhone is currently priced at $799, only $100 higher than the similarly positioned model in 2017.

Before the release of the iPhone 17 series this week, some analysts predicted that Apple would significantly raise prices—especially against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. However, Apple's price adjustments have been quite restrained: although the starting price of the Pro series has risen from $999 to $1,099, the doubling of the base storage capacity to 256GB has somewhat mitigated the impact of the price increase.

The new iPhone Air, which replaces the iPhone 16 Plus, also saw a $100 price increase to $999. Consumers had already mentally prepared for "tariffs pushing up prices," with some even purchasing devices earlier this year to avoid potential tax costs, and Apple's moderate price adjustment exceeded market expectations.

However, this price restraint will not last indefinitely. Apple cannot indefinitely absorb tariff costs, and shifting iPhone production from China to India will not completely resolve the issue of rising costs. In fact, Apple has begun to signal that the "2000-dollar iPhone era" is approaching.

The iPhone 17 Pro Max launched this year includes a new 2TB storage version, priced at a staggering $1,999—this is the first time an iPhone model has approached the $2,000 price threshold. Clearly, Apple would not release this version if it did not believe that a significant portion of users would be willing to pay that price.

The path of price increases is already quite clear. Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released next year, and its features will compete with foldable models from Samsung Electronics Co. and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL.US)—currently, these competing products are priced between $1,799 and $2,419, depending on configuration.

Considering that the single-screen iPhone Air is already priced at $999, and that future foldable models will share many components with the iPhone Air, the base price of the foldable iPhone is likely to be at least double that of the iPhone Air; if storage upgrades, protective cases, and other accessory costs are added, the final price will further increase Apple CEO Tim Cook has long signaled to Wall Street that he believes iPhone users are ready to pay for high-end models.

"In products like smartphones, people are willing to invest more in the best devices within their capability," Cook stated during the 2023 earnings call, emphasizing that the iPhone has become an "essential" part of people's lives. He pointed out that consumers today use the iPhone for payments, controlling smart home devices, managing health data, and storing banking information, with its functional importance far exceeding that of traditional phones.

In the long term, Apple is developing the 20th-anniversary model "iPhone 20." This model is expected to undergo a disruptive upgrade, with its level of innovation likely comparable to that of the iPhone X. Just as the iPhone X established the $1,000 price standard, the iPhone 20 may set a new, higher-priced "new normal" for the iPhone series