"Covert War" Federal Reserve September Interest Rate Meeting

A political struggle over the control of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, and next week's FOMC meeting is not only related to interest rate decisions but also a fierce game surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Nick Timiraos, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, known as the "new Federal Reserve press agency," analyzed that just before the meeting, two parallel legal and political struggles will ultimately determine who can sit at the decision-making table. The outcome will not only affect the current interest rate vote but also profoundly influence the market's expectations for the future monetary policy path.

On Tuesday evening, a federal judge approved a temporary injunction against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, temporarily blocking President Trump's attempt to dismiss her. This ruling is a significant legal victory for Cook herself and the independence of the entire central bank, clearing the way for Cook to attend next week's meeting and participate in the vote.

Immediately following, on Wednesday morning, the focus shifted to the Senate Banking Committee. Republicans quickly advanced the confirmation process for Trump's nominee, advisor Stephen Miran, in an attempt to fill another vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board. This move creates the possibility for a full Senate vote this week, and if approved, Miran may join the same interest rate meeting.

After a series of weak employment data released this summer, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting.

Timiraos stated that Cook has consistently aligned with Chairman Powell on policy, while it remains unclear whether Miran will vote in favor of a larger rate cut. This struggle over attendance eligibility will determine the meeting's attendance, and its importance lies not only in its impact on the current voting outcome but also in the fact that attending officials will submit new quarterly economic forecasts, which will shape the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy path.

Judicial Ruling Temporarily Defends Federal Reserve Independence

Last month, Trump attempted to dismiss Cook on the grounds of alleged "mortgage fraud" prior to her taking office in 2022, intending to bypass the legal protections granted to Federal Reserve governors. According to the Federal Reserve Act, Federal Reserve governors have a 14-year term and cannot be dismissed by the president except "for cause" to ensure their decisions are not influenced by political pressure.

In this regard, U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb's ruling largely adopted Cook's legal argument that Trump's hasty dismissal action deprived her of the opportunity to defend herself. The judge found that Cook was "very likely" to win in litigation, as Trump's reasons for dismissal did not meet the legal standard of "for cause."

Jia Cobb wrote in the ruling, "The intent of the dismissal was not based on the president inferring future performance from unverified rumors prior to the official's appointment."

The Trump administration has stated in court documents on Wednesday that it will appeal this ruling, and the case may quickly be appealed to the Supreme Court.

Trump's Advisor Miran Nomination is Rapidly Advancing

Beyond the legal front, a political sprint is also unfolding simultaneouslyAccording to Timiraos, the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday approved Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board by a vote of 13 to 11. Notably, Miran's nomination process was unusually swift, taking only 8 days from the White House submission to eligibility for a full Senate vote, whereas the confirmation times for the last eight new governors ranged from 72 days to 310 days.

The controversy surrounding this appointment lies in its "unprecedented" personnel arrangement. Miran will take an unpaid leave from his current position as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers to fill a Federal Reserve Board seat that expires on January 31 next year, with plans to return to the White House after his term ends.

Democrats criticize this "dual role" as undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Ironically, Miran himself criticized the "revolving door" personnel arrangements between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch in 2023, arguing that it would harm the central bank's independence.

In a social media post at the time, he wrote that it is hard to believe a person "can go from a highly politicized operator to politically neutral simply because of a promotion. Humans do not operate that way."

Who Will Influence Decisions and Expectations?

Trump's unprecedented struggle for control over the Federal Reserve is putting the independence of the U.S. central bank to a severe test.

Timiraos emphasizes that since the high inflation of the 1970s, it has become a widely accepted consensus to keep the Federal Reserve independent from the executive branch. However, President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in recent years and has openly stated that monetary policy should consider the U.S. government's debt financing costs.

For investors, the ultimate outcome of this "shadow war" will directly impact the markets.

Timiraos concludes that, in addition to the direct vote on whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or more, more importantly, the attendance list of the meeting will determine who writes the new quarterly economic forecast. This forecast document is the most important tool for Federal Reserve officials to convey their collective views on the economy and future policy paths to the market.