Altman outlines a ten-year roadmap for AI: "Intelligence is electricity," any software can be generated in seconds, and a ten-person company can earn 1 billion annually

In a recent conversation with OpenAI's early investor Vinod Khosla, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlined a vision for the development of artificial intelligence (AI) over the next decade: by 2035, software will achieve instant generation, a 10-person company could generate annual revenue of $1 billion, and the cost of AI will converge with the cost of electricity.

This deep dialogue with Silicon Valley legend and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla reveals how AI technology will reshape the business landscape while maintaining the constancy of human core experiences.

Altman predicts that the pace of technological change will be "difficult to understand with existing frameworks," but human biological needs—social interaction, emotional connection, and family care—will remain constant. This contradiction will define the trajectory of development over the next decade.

One of the most striking points in the conversation is the prediction of disruption in the traditional software industry. Altman stated, "We are moving towards a world where any software you want can be generated instantly," which will fundamentally dismantle the traditional SaaS business model. At the same time, he advised investors:

"Spend 0% of your time looking for the next AI research lab, and 100% of your time investing in the new species made possible by artificial general intelligence (AGI)."

When asked when a case of a 10-person company generating $1 billion in annual revenue might appear, Altman asserted:

"I would bet that this company either already exists or will be born in the next few years."

Fundamental Reconstruction of the Software Industry

The traditional software business model is facing unprecedented challenges. Altman pointed out that when users can obtain customized software simply by describing their needs, the necessity of purchasing off-the-shelf SaaS products will significantly decrease. This shift will occur faster than changes in the physical world that require complex supply chains.

The rate of disappearance of Fortune 500 companies will also accelerate significantly in the 2030s. Khosla predicts that a company's survival will depend on its adaptability, while the growth rate of new companies will reach unprecedented levels. OpenAI itself is a typical example of this trend—starting as a research lab, its pace of commercialization far exceeds traditional paths.

The core driving force behind this transformation comes from the continuous optimization of three pillars: better algorithms, greater computing power, and more data. Altman suggests that entrepreneurs assume models will "get better and cheaper in every dimension" and base their product planning on this premise.

Redefining Human Value in the Age of AI

Although AI will be capable of performing "almost all intellectual work," human value in specific areas will become more pronounced. Altman emphasized that professions requiring deep emotional connection and empathy—such as teachers, nurses, and elder care—will become more precious.

"Perhaps you can have a great AI teacher, but its motivational impact on you is not as strong as that of an average human teacher," Altman stated. This perspective reflects the deep influence of human "biological programming," where people have an intense desire for care and recognition from their peers

"AI will be able to perform many, many different jobs, perhaps almost all jobs. However, we will find that biological programming is very difficult to overcome."

The future society will have more "freedom," allowing people to return to family responsibilities. As AI takes on more intellectual work, humans will be able to devote more time to areas that truly require interpersonal interaction.

The Evolution of ChatGPT: From Chat Tool to Intelligent Operating System

The birth of ChatGPT was filled with unexpected discoveries. OpenAI initially started as a pure research lab, and after the release of GPT-3, the team discovered the potential of chat functionality by observing user behavior. Although the early product retention rate was extremely low, the usage of retained users significantly increased over time, which became a key signal for continued development.

Altman's vision for the future of ChatGPT goes far beyond that of a chatbot. He positions it as an "intelligent operating system" or "personal AGI"—a system that understands users, connects various services, and acts according to user intentions. Whether through chat, agents, or other service integrations, the goal is to provide an omnipresent personalized intelligent companion.

Currently, ChatGPT has become the fifth largest website globally, and if it maintains its current growth trajectory, it is expected to become the largest website in the world. This scale of user base provides a solid foundation for its evolution into an intelligent operating system.

Investment Paradigm Shift: Pursuing the Future Rather Than Replicating the Past

In the AI-driven new era, investment logic needs fundamental adjustments. Altman offers clear advice to investors: stop looking for the "next OpenAI" and instead focus on the new business models spawned by AGI technology.

He illustrates this point with a transistor analogy: the true immense value does not come from the few companies that manufacture transistors, but from the countless new applications across various industries that this foundational technology has spawned. When the cost of intelligence approaches zero, investors should think about what entirely new, unproven but highly potential business models will emerge.

"The new space opened up by AGI is larger than ever before," Altman states. The world will see "almost free general artificial intelligence," and investors should "pursue the future, rather than what was effective in the past."

Global Inclusiveness and the Emergence of New Scarce Resources

AI will bring about a significant deflationary effect, promoting global inclusive development. Altman predicts that everyone will have access to quality medical advice, educational resources, and free software production capabilities. This aligns with the essence of technological development—putting tools in people's hands, making them cheap or even free.

However, in this inclusive picture, new scarce resources are emerging. When intelligence itself is no longer scarce, the infrastructure that supports its operation—computing power and energy—will become the core of value. Altman warns that computing power may become a "madly scarce resource," and the solution is to "produce more, more, more computing power."

He made a key prediction:

"I expect that in ten years, the cost of AI will converge with the cost of electricity, to that extent. It cannot be overstated. Everything else should become very cheap. For example, we can use robots to manufacture chips, but you still need to drive electronics In this upcoming era, energy is not only the lifeblood of the economy but will also become the cornerstone of intelligence. For all enterprises, investors, and individuals, understanding and adapting to this fundamental shift will be the only way to the future