U.S. Stock Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, with tonight's U.S. August PPI data on the way

1. As of September 10th (Wednesday) before the U.S. stock market opens, the three major U.S. stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.13%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.37%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.21%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.44%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.26%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.97%, priced at $63.24 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.92%, priced at $67.00 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. August PPI data is coming! The market may face volatility. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. August PPI data will be released. Economists expect the U.S. August PPI year-on-year rate to remain unchanged at 3.3%. The core PPI year-on-year rate is expected to drop from 3.7% to 3.5%. Analysts point out that if the U.S. PPI data shows an unexpected rise, it may eliminate the recent bearish sentiment on the dollar and suppress the record rise in gold prices.

U.S. stocks hitting new highs spur a "tearing research report" craze on Wall Street! 7000 points become a new anchor for the S&P 500 index. With strong corporate earnings growth data and a renewed bullish enthusiasm for artificial intelligence driving U.S. stocks to a strong rise since April and recently hitting historical highs, top analysts from Wall Street are scrambling to raise their outlooks for the S&P 500 index. Analysts who have been long-term bearish on U.S. stocks this year have repeatedly "torn research reports"—that is, updating and raising their target points for the S&P 500 index multiple times this year to keep up with their peers' bullish expectations and the epic bull market pace of U.S. stocks. Overall, these top analysts on Wall Street generally expect the overall earnings of S&P 500 constituent stocks and the investment returns of this benchmark index to expand in 2025 and 2026, with some analysts predicting that the index could significantly rise to around 7,000 points by the end of this year or early next year.

Even if inflation heats up tomorrow night, it will be hard to disturb U.S. stocks, with employment data leading the market direction. Wall Street trading desks expect the consumer price index (CPI) to rise significantly when announced on Thursday, but they believe the stock market will not experience significant volatility as employment data remains the main focus of the market. Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity trading strategy at Citigroup, pointed out that options traders are betting that the S&P 500 index will only see about a 0.7% slight fluctuation after the CPI report is released, which is lower than the average actual fluctuation of 0.9% on CPI days over the past year and also lower than the implied volatility expectation during the employment report release on October 3rd The current core contradiction in the market lies in how to interpret the Federal Reserve's interest rate trends—recent employment data has shown that the degree of economic weakness has reached a critical point threatening growth. Therefore, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on September 17, and possibly continue to cut rates in October and December.

The imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led Invesco to be "extremely bearish" on the dollar. Alessio de Longis, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco, believes that as the Federal Reserve is about to ease monetary policy, the dollar will face greater pressure. This move will reduce its yield advantage relative to other currencies. In a report to clients in September, de Longis stated that his team has strengthened its bearish view on the dollar, adjusting from "reduce" to "maximum reduce." He pointed out that the narrowing of yield differentials and positive surprises in economic data outside the U.S. are the reasons for this shift. The team's bearish stance on the dollar is the strongest since June 2024. De Longis wrote, "Although the dollar's yield is still higher than that of other currencies in developed markets, the expected weakening of the dollar's yield advantage has historically created downward pressure on the dollar's performance."

Major revisions to U.S. employment data strengthen rate cut expectations, with gold prices briefly breaking through $3,670 to hit a new high. As traders' assessments of U.S. economic data further reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, gold prices reached a historic high on Tuesday. Gold prices briefly surpassed $3,674 per ounce during the session, and although they later retreated to around $3,643, they remained at elevated levels. The direct catalyst for this surge in gold prices was the U.S. Department of Labor's preliminary revision of employment data—showing that the previously reported number of jobs may have been overestimated by 911,000, marking a record revision and intensifying market concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. labor market. The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next week, and the U.S. Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index, to be released on Wednesday and Thursday, will be key data influencing the Fed's decision.

Individual Stock News

AI computing power demand explodes! Oracle (ORCL.US) secures $500 billion in cloud orders, driving stock price to a new high, moving towards the top 10 in U.S. market capitalization. Oracle's stock price surged after the company reported a significant increase in business bookings for the first fiscal quarter and raised its revenue guidance for cloud infrastructure. As of the time of writing, Oracle's stock was up 31.97% in pre-market trading following the latest quarterly earnings release. If the stock maintains this performance in Wednesday's trading, it will set a new historical high. Based on Tuesday's closing price, this increase in market capitalization will push Oracle past JP Morgan, Walmart, Eli Lilly, and Visa, making it the tenth largest company in the S&P 500 index, with a market capitalization of approximately $870 billion. In this quarter, Oracle signed four contracts worth billions of dollars with three different clients, and the company expects to reach agreements with more clients in the coming months, bringing the remaining performance obligations to over $500 billion.

Synopsys (SNPS.US) Q3 performance and guidance fall short of expectations, stock price plummets 23.27% in pre-market. On Tuesday, in pre-market trading, the stock price of electronic design automation (EDA) software company Synopsys plummeted 23.27% after the company reported third-quarter performance and guidance that fell short of expectations Synopsys reported a 14% year-over-year revenue growth in its third fiscal quarter ending July 31, reaching $1.74 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $3.39. Analysts had previously expected the company's revenue to be $1.77 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.80. Revenue from the design automation business grew 23% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, exceeding market expectations of $1.18 billion. However, revenue from the design intellectual property (IP) business declined 7.7% year-over-year to $427.6 million, falling short of market expectations of $552.1 million. The adjusted operating profit for the quarter was $669.8 million.

TSMC (TSM.US) sales surged 34% in August, reaffirming strong AI demand. TSMC's revenue in August increased by 34% year-over-year, indicating sustained global demand for cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) chips. As a major chip foundry partner of NVIDIA (NVDA.US), TSMC's sales last month reached NT$335.8 billion (approximately $11.1 billion), a 3.9% increase from the previous month. Total revenue from January to August amounted to NT$2.43198 trillion, a year-over-year increase of 37.1%. Analysts generally expect the company to achieve approximately 25% revenue growth in the third quarter of 2024 (ending in September).

Google Cloud holds $106 billion in orders, expecting an additional $58 billion in revenue by 2027. According to Thomas Kurian, CEO of Google Cloud, a division of Alphabet, the current existing customer contracts signed but not yet fulfilled amount to a total commitment of $106 billion. Kurian stated on Tuesday that over the next two years, as these services are gradually delivered, it is expected that at least 55% (or $58 billion) of the contract amount will convert into actual revenue for the company. "The growth rate of contract commitments exceeds our revenue growth rate," he added, "which means we are not only achieving revenue growth, but the scale of unfulfilled contract obligations (remaining revenue to be recognized) is also expanding." Currently, technology companies are ramping up data center capacity to meet the growing demand for AI computing power, with Alphabet being one of them.

Apple (AAPL.US) watch undergoes the biggest innovation in three years, adding blood pressure monitoring and satellite communication features. Apple has launched an end-to-end update of its smartwatch series for the first time in three years, adding blood pressure monitoring and satellite communication features to its high-end products, while also improving its entry-level products. On Tuesday, Apple unveiled the new generation iPhone 17 series, along with updates to the Apple Watch, AirPods, and other products. Apple stated that the new watch will achieve 5G connectivity through a new cellular modem. The Series 11 and Ultra series watches will be equipped with a new blood pressure detection system and a completely new watch face design. The lower-end SE version has added health features, a faster chip, and an upgraded display. The new Ultra 3 model also introduces a feature designed specifically for hikers: the ability to access satellite networks even in areas without mobile network coverage Microsoft (MSFT.US) plans to introduce Anthropic in Office 365, partially replacing OpenAI technology. Microsoft seems to be preparing to replace some of OpenAI's technology with Anthropic's artificial intelligence (AI) technology in its Office 365 applications. This will break OpenAI's monopoly within Microsoft since the company invested billions of dollars in it in January 2023. Previously, OpenAI's technology had been used for the development of new features in Microsoft's productivity software suite (including Word, Excel, Outlook, and PowerPoint). Anthropic's technology is supported by companies such as Amazon (AMZN.US) and Google (GOOGL.US). Reports indicate that as part of the agreement, Microsoft will pay fees to Amazon AWS to use Anthropic's models. AWS is the sole provider of Anthropic models.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. August PPI year-on-year (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. July wholesale inventory month-on-month final value (%).

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 5 (10,000 barrels).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. September IPSOS primary consumer sentiment index PCSI.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. September 10th 10-year Treasury auction - total amount (billion USD).

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board, which will then proceed to a full vote.

To be determined: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will chair the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting.

Earnings Forecast

Thursday pre-market: Kroger (KR.US)