Tesla from electric vehicles to AI robot platform: Morgan Stanley maintains overweight rating, target price $410

According to the latest research report from Morgan Stanley, the bank maintains an "overweight" rating on Tesla (TSLA.US) with a target price of $410. Morgan Stanley pointed out that Tesla's integration with other companies under Elon Musk (such as SpaceX, Neuralink, etc.) will become closer. For example, the xA data center will be used to train robots, Starlink will provide services for land, sea, and air autonomous vehicles, and the limbs of the Optimus robot will be combined with Neuralink's brain-machine interface technology to form a synergistic ecosystem, further expanding Tesla's application scenarios and market space in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics. The institution has constructed an analytical framework from four dimensions to reveal Tesla's strategic depth in the AI-robotics era.

Financial Engine: EPS Doubling in Three Years and ModelWare Dual-Track Forecast

The research report predicts that Tesla's EPS will increase from $2.41 to $4.34 from 2024 to 2027, with a CAGR of 21.3%. Notably, the ModelWare model provides a more conservative 2025 forecast of $0.90, reflecting the valuation divergence between traditional manufacturing and AI empowerment. By 2026, the predictions from the two major models converge to $2.69/$2.20, validating the profitability inflection point of FSD (Full Self-Driving) scaling.

In terms of valuation, Morgan Stanley's valuation of Tesla consists of five components, with a total target price of $410. Specifically, the core Tesla automotive business is valued at $76 per share, based on a sales expectation of 46 million vehicles by 2030, a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.0%, a 14x EBITDA multiple for 2030, and an exit EBITDA profit margin of 16.2%.

Additionally, the valuation for network services is $159 per share, assuming an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $200 by 2040 and a penetration rate of 65%; Tesla's mobility business is valued at $90 per share, based on approximately 75 million vehicles and an expected revenue of about $146 per mile; the energy business is valued at $68 per share; and Tesla's business as a third-party supplier is valued at $17 per share.

Technological Breakthrough: 2,000 Robot Taxis Covering 10 U.S. Cities

Core innovations focus on autonomous driving and the robotics ecosystem. Morgan Stanley expects Tesla to deploy 2,000 robot taxis in the U.S. by the end of 2026, covering 5-10 cities, which is 18 months ahead of the market's general expectations. The physical/cognitive capabilities of human-like robots (Optimus) will achieve exponential leaps, with third-party supply value reaching $17 per share.

In terms of the low-altitude economy, the shortage of eVTOLs in the U.S. will drive the number of aerial robots to be ten times that of ground robots, creating a market worth $5 trillion. Tesla is expected to leverage its technological advantages in this emerging field, participating in the development of the low-altitude economy and providing innovative solutions for future transportation and logistics sectors

Ecological Integration: Muskonomy Synergy and the Reconstruction of Sino-U.S. Relations

Tesla's ecological synergy (Muskonomy) with xAI data centers, Starlink, and Neuralink continues to deepen. Sino-U.S. relations are showing a trend of strategic balance in the AI robotics field—China is expected to expand its leading advantage in manufacturing empowered by AI over the next 3-5 years, and subsequently achieve technology repatriation through intellectual property exports. American companies are accelerating the introduction of Chinese AI patents, forming a new paradigm of "Chinese innovation - American commercialization."

Risk Matrix: Coexisting Upside Potential and Execution Challenges

Upside risks include growth in service revenue, increased FSD attachment rates, breakthroughs in new battery technologies, and the launch of new models such as the Cybertruck. Downside risks focus on execution risks (multi-factory production), market recognition of Dojo computing power services, geopolitical risks in China, and equity dilution pressure. Historical data shows that the target price from 2020 to 2025 has surged from $90.67 to $410, confirming analysts' continued confidence in Tesla's technology roadmap.

Morgan Stanley assesses that Tesla has transformed from an electric vehicle manufacturer into an AI-robotics platform company, and its valuation model needs to incorporate multiple growth drivers such as robot taxis, Optimus limbs, and the low-altitude economy. The current target price of $410 reflects not only the valuation of existing businesses but also includes a long-term discount on the $5 trillion market size of humanoid robots, forming a hardcore investment logic that transcends cycles